The anatomy of predator–prey dynamics in a changing climate
Open accessAbstract
Humans are increasingly influencing global climate and regional predator assemblages, yet a mechanistic understanding of how climate and predation interact to affect fluctuations in prey populations is currently lacking. Here we develop a modelling framework to explore the effects of different predation strategies on the response of age-structured prey populations to a changing climate. We show that predation acts in opposition to temporal correlation in climatic conditions to suppress prey population fluctuations. Ambush predators such as lions are shown to be more effective at suppressing fluctuations in their prey than cursorial predators such as wolves, which chase down prey over long distances, because they are more effective predators on prime-aged adults. We model climate as a Markov process and explore the consequences of future changes in climatic autocorrelation for population dynamics. We show that the presence of healthy predator populations will be particularly important in dampening prey population fluctuations if temporal correlation in climatic conditions increases in the future.
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The return of wolves to YNP may help buffer populations of prey species, particularly elk, and scavengers from the effects of impending climate change.
“The return of wolves to YNP may help buffer populations of prey species, particularly elk, and scavengers from the effects of impending climate change (Wilmers & Getz, 2005; Wilmers & Post, 2006; Wilmers, Post, & Hastings, 2007).”
From Population responses of common ravens to reintroduced gray wolves (2018) · cites this paper as Wilmers, Post, & Hastings, 2007
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- Authors
- WILMERS, C. C., POST, E., & HASTINGS, A.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Corresponding author
- WILMERS, CHRISTOPHER C.
- Venue
- Journal of Animal Ecology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2007-08-17
- Volume
- 76
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1037-1044
- ISSN
- 0021-8790 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2656
- OpenAlex
- W2039697646
- Cited by
- 92
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 5.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Animal Ecology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Keywords
- predator-prey dynamics, climate change, ambush predation, lion, wolf, age-structured populations, climate change mitigation, predator assemblages
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Climate, Conservation of Natural Resources, Markov Chains, Models, Biological, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Predatory Behavior, Food Chain
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