Cited by 92Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsAnimal Ecology and Behavior StudiesWildlife Ecology and Conservation

The anatomy of predator–prey dynamics in a changing climate

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WILMERS, CHRISTOPHER C., POST, ERIC, HASTINGS, ALAN·2007·Journal of Animal Ecology

Abstract

Humans are increasingly influencing global climate and regional predator assemblages, yet a mechanistic understanding of how climate and predation interact to affect fluctuations in prey populations is currently lacking. Here we develop a modelling framework to explore the effects of different predation strategies on the response of age-structured prey populations to a changing climate. We show that predation acts in opposition to temporal correlation in climatic conditions to suppress prey population fluctuations. Ambush predators such as lions are shown to be more effective at suppressing fluctuations in their prey than cursorial predators such as wolves, which chase down prey over long distances, because they are more effective predators on prime-aged adults. We model climate as a Markov process and explore the consequences of future changes in climatic autocorrelation for population dynamics. We show that the presence of healthy predator populations will be particularly important in dampening prey population fluctuations if temporal correlation in climatic conditions increases in the future.

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Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01289.x

Cites

57 of 57 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • The return of wolves to YNP may help buffer populations of prey species, particularly elk, and scavengers from the effects of impending climate change.

    “The return of wolves to YNP may help buffer populations of prey species, particularly elk, and scavengers from the effects of impending climate change (Wilmers & Getz, 2005; Wilmers & Post, 2006; Wilmers, Post, & Hastings, 2007).”

    From Population responses of common ravens to reintroduced gray wolves (2018) · cites this paper as Wilmers, Post, & Hastings, 2007

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Authors
WILMERS, C. C., POST, E., & HASTINGS, A.
Affiliations
  • University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
  • Pennsylvania State University (US)
  • University of California, Davis (US)
Corresponding author
WILMERS, CHRISTOPHER C.
Venue
Journal of Animal Ecology
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2007-08-17
Volume
76
Issue
6
Pages
1037-1044
ISSN
  • 0021-8790 (ISSN-L)
  • 1365-2656
OpenAlex
W2039697646
Cited by
92
References
57
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 5
FWCI
5.85
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Animal Ecology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
National Science Foundation
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
Keywords
predator-prey dynamics, climate change, ambush predation, lion, wolf, age-structured populations, climate change mitigation, predator assemblages
MeSH terms
Animals, Climate, Conservation of Natural Resources, Markov Chains, Models, Biological, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Predatory Behavior, Food Chain

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