Cited by 932Marine and fisheries researchMarine animal studies overviewCoral and Marine Ecosystems Studies

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Cascading top-down effects of changing oceanic predator abundances

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Baum, Julia K., Worm, Boris·2009·Journal of Animal Ecology

DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01531.x

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Abstract

1. Top-down control can be an important determinant of ecosystem structure and function, but in oceanic ecosystems, where cascading effects of predator depletions, recoveries, and invasions could be significant, such effects had rarely been demonstrated until recently. 2. Here we synthesize the evidence for oceanic top-down control that has emerged over the last decade, focusing on large, high trophic-level predators inhabiting continental shelves, seas, and the open ocean. 3. In these ecosystems, where controlled manipulations are largely infeasible, 'pseudo-experimental' analyses of predator-prey interactions that treat independent predator populations as 'replicates', and temporal or spatial contrasts in predator populations and climate as 'treatments', are increasingly employed to help disentangle predator effects from environmental variation and noise. 4. Substantial reductions in marine mammals, sharks, and piscivorous fishes have led to mesopredator and invertebrate predator increases. Conversely, abundant oceanic predators have suppressed prey abundances. Predation has also inhibited recovery of depleted species, sometimes through predator-prey role reversals. Trophic cascades have been initiated by oceanic predators linking to neritic food webs, but seem inconsistent in the pelagic realm with effects often attenuating at plankton. 5. Top-down control is not uniformly strong in the ocean, and appears contingent on the intensity and nature of perturbations to predator abundances. Predator diversity may dampen cascading effects except where nonselective fisheries deplete entire predator functional groups. In other cases, simultaneous exploitation of predator and prey can inhibit prey responses. Explicit consideration of anthropogenic modifications to oceanic foodwebs should help inform predictions about trophic control. 6. Synthesis and applications. Oceanic top-down control can have important socio-economic, conservation, and management implications as mesopredators and invertebrates assume dominance, and recovery of overexploited predators is impaired. Continued research aimed at integrating across trophic levels is needed to understand and forecast the ecosystem effects of changing oceanic predator abundances, the relative strength of top-down and bottom-up control, and interactions with intensifying anthropogenic stressors such as climate change.

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BackgroundInfluential
The importance of high-level predators in marine protected area management: Consequences of their decline and their potential recovery in the Mediterranean context
Prato, G., Guidetti, P., Bartolini, F., Mangialajo, L., & Francour, P. (2013) · Advances in Oceanography and Limnology · doi:10.1080/19475721.2013.841754 · Cited by 44
“In some cases (New England, South Africa) the dramatic depletion of large sharks has resulted in the proliferation of smaller elasmobranchs, of which large sharks were the sole predators, and the decline of bony fish at lower levels in the food web [22].”
Background
Review of the Diversity, Ecology, and Conservation of Elasmobranchs in the Azores Region, Mid-North Atlantic
Das, D., & Afonso, P. (2017) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00354 · Cited by 38
“Elasmobranchs (sharks and rays) are a key group of marine predators, suspected tomediate trophic cascades as top or meso- predatory species (Myers et al., 2007; Baum and Worm, 2009; Heithaus et al., 2012).”
Background
The impact of increasing turbidity on the predator–prey interactions of freshwater fishes
Zanghi, C., & Ioannou, C. C. (2024) · Freshwater Biology · doi:10.1111/fwb.14354 · Cited by 42
Intra-seasonal variation in foraging behavior among Adélie penguins (Pygocelis adeliae) breeding at Cape Hallett, Ross Sea, Antarctica
Lyver, P. O., MacLeod, C. J., Ballard, G., Karl, B. J., Barton, K. J., Adams, J., Ainley, D. G., & Wilson, P. R. (2010) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s00300-010-0858-0 · Cited by 39
“... the last 3–4 decades, increased variability, and an apparent decline in abundance and availability of mid-trophic level organisms that comprise the prey of top predators in marine food webs around the world have been linked indirectly to climate change and directly to intensive commercial fishing and other direct…”
Background
EVALUATING HUMAN MODIFICATION OF SHALLOW MARINE ECOSYSTEMS: MISMATCH IN COMPOSITION OF MOLLUSCAN LIVING AND TIME-AVERAGED DEATH ASSEMBLAGES
Kidwell, S. M. (2009) · Cited by 37
Small-sized and well-enforced Marine Protected Areas provide ecological benefits for piscivorous fish populations worldwide
Rojo, I., Sánchez‐Meca, J., & García‐Charton, J. A. (2019) · Marine Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.06.005 · Cited by 42
Assessing vulnerability of bycatch species in the tuna purse-seine fisheries of the eastern Pacific Ocean
Duffy, L. M., Lennert‐Cody, C. E., Olson, R. J., Minte‐Vera, C. V., & Griffiths, S. P. (2019) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2019.105316 · Cited by 37
Marine Animal Populations: A New Look Back in Time
Holm, P., Marboe, A. H., Poulsen, B., & MacKenzie, B. R. (2010) · doi:10.1002/9781444325508.ch1 · Cited by 37
Cascading Effects Within Soil Food Web Amplify Fungal Biomass and Necromass Production
Zhang, S., Kuzyakov, Y. V., Jia, Z., Bai, E., Morriën, E., & Liang, A. (2025) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70235 · Cited by 36
“As predators reduce the abundance of intermediate prey, a top-down cascade is triggered (Baum and Worm 2009; Ripple et al. 2016; Terborgh and Estes 2013).”
The role of a dominant predator in shaping biodiversity over space and time in a marine ecosystem
Ellingsen, K. E., Anderson, M. J., Shackell, N. L., Tveraa, T., Yoccoz, N. G., & Frank, K. T. (2015) · Journal of Animal Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12396 · Cited by 40
HSS revisited: multi‐channel processes mediate trophic control across a productivity gradient
Ward, C., McCann, K. S., & Rooney, N. (2015) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12498 · Cited by 36
Egg Production in a Coastal Seabird, the Glaucous-Winged Gull (Larus glaucescens), Declines during the Last Century
Blight, L. K. (2011) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0022027 · Cited by 36
“Marine systems worldwide have responded in varying ways to removal of predators and prey [14,15], and as”
Background
Patterns and ecological implications of historical marine phytoplankton change
Boyce, D., & Worm, B. (2015) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps11411 · Cited by 48
“Within individual ecosystems, there is ample evidence for top-down effects of grazers on phytoplankton that may interact with the bottom-up forcing discussed in the previous subsection (Verity & Smeta cek 1996, Micheli 1999, Frank et al. 2006, Baum & Worm 2009, Estes et al. 2011).”
Background
Projections of climate‐driven changes in tuna vertical habitat based on species‐specific differences in blood oxygen affinity
Mislan, K. A. S., Deutsch, C. A., Brill, R. W., Dunne, J. P. P., & Sarmiento, J. L. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13799 · Cited by 39
“Prey abundances have increased as predation rates have decreased due to fishing, thereby decreasing competition among the highest trophic levels in marine food webs (Baum & Worm, 2009; Essington et al., 2002).”
Ecosystem functioning of two marine food webs in the North‐Western Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean Sea)
Ricci, P., Libralato, S., Capezzuto, F., D’Onghia, G., Maiorano, P., Sión, L., Tursi, A., Solidoro, C., & Carlucci, R. (2019) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.5527 · Cited by 36
“…al., 2007; Hattab et al., 2013), where the fishing exploitation impacts on the key predators determined a clear anthropogenic modification of food webs with consequent impacts on marine ecosystem structure, and functioning (Baum & Worm, 2009; Pauly, Christensen, Dalsgaard, Froese, & Torres, 1998).”
Background
Seagrass ecosystem multifunctionality under the rise of a flagship marine megaherbivore
Christianen, M. J. A., Smulders, F. O. H., Vonk, J. A., Becking, L. E., Bouma, T. J., Engel, S. M., James, R. K., Nava, M. I., de Smit, J. C., van der Zee, J. P., et al. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16464 · Cited by 35
“…illustrated in several classic studies of cascading, top- down effects triggered by megafaunal defaunation through extirpation of sharks, otters, and cetaceans (Ainley et al., 2006; Baum & Worm, 2009; Estes et al., 2009; Estes & Palmisano, 1974; Heithaus, Frid, et al., 2008; Steneck & Sala, 2005).”
The Role of Carrion Supply in the Abundance of Deep-Water Fish off California
Drazen, J. C., Bailey, D. M., Ruhl, H. A., & Smith, K. L. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0049332 · Cited by 34
“Top predators have been shown to alter the abundances and behaviors of their prey populations, exert selective pressures, alter biodiversity and alter biogeochemical cycling in both marine and terrestrial systems [5,6,7,8,9].”
Background
Movement patterns of reef predators in a small isolated marine protected area with implications for resource management
Filous, A., Friedlander, A. M., Wolfe, B., Stamoulis, K. A., Scherrer, S. R., Wong, A., Stone, K., & Sparks, R. (2016) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-016-3043-3 · Cited by 36
“Predators play a critical role in maintaining the balance of marine ecosystems by regulating and imposing a top-down effect on lower trophic groups (Baum and Worm 2009).”
Background
Sympatric elasmobranchs and fecal samples provide insight into the trophic ecology of the smalltooth sawfish
Poulakis, G. R., Urakawa, H., Stevens, P., DeAngelo, J. A., Timmers, A. A., Grubbs, R. D., Fisk, A. T., & Olin, J. A. (2017) · Endangered Species Research · doi:10.3354/esr00824 · Cited by 35
“Large predators, including many elasmobranchs, perform key roles in marine ecosystems through the regulation of community structure by top-down processes (Baum & Worm 2009, Ferretti et al. 2010).”
Background
Combined bottom‐up and top‐down pressures drive catastrophic population declines of Arctic skuas in Scotland
Perkins, A. J., Ratcliffe, N., Suddaby, D., Ribbands, B., Smith, C., Ellis, P., Meek, E., & Bolton, M. (2018) · Journal of Animal Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12890 · Cited by 35
Species‐specific ontogenetic diet shifts attenuate trophic cascades and lengthen food chains in exploited ecosystems
Reum, J. C. P., Blanchard, J. L., Holsman, K. K., Aydin, K., & Punt, A. E. (2019) · Oikos · doi:10.1111/oik.05630 · Cited by 35
Oceanographic conditions associated with white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) habitat use along eastern Australia
Lee, K. A., Butcher, P. A., Harcourt, R. G., Patterson, T. A., Peddemors, V. M., Roughan, M., Harasti, D., Smoothey, A. F., & Bradford, R. W. (2020) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps13572 · Cited by 35
“Apex predators are vital to the health of the marine environment, and their removal can result in topdown effects that cascade through the trophic levels (Heithaus et al. 2008, Baum & Worm 2009, Ferretti et al. 2010).”
Background
Telling the same story: Fishers and landing data reveal changes in fisheries on the Southeastern Brazilian Coast
Fogliarini, C. O., Ferreira, C. E. L., Bornholdt, J., Barbosa, M. C., Giglio, V. J., & Bender, M. G. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0252391 · Cited by 37
“These large-bodied species tend to occupy higher levels in the food chain and play a key role in maintaining the trophic structure and functioning of communities [23, 24].”
Background
Was overfishing of predatory fish responsible for a lobster-induced regime shift in the Benguela?
Blamey, L. K., Plagányi, É. E., & Branch, G. M. (2013) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.004 · Cited by 35
“However, only during the past decade has top-down control become increasingly apparent in open-ocean systems, as many top predators have been overfished (Worm and Myers, 2003; Frank et al., 2005; Baum and Worm, 2009).”
Background
Trophic flow structure of the Danajon ecosystem (Central Philippines) and impacts of illegal and destructive fishing practices
Bacalso, R. T. M., & Wolff, M. (2014) · Journal of Marine Systems · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.05.014 · Cited by 40
Stable isotope mixing models fail to estimate the diet of an avian predator
Robinson, B. G., Franke, A., & Derocher, A. E. (2017) · The Auk · doi:10.1642/auk-17-143.1 · Cited by 34
Changes to Marine Trophic Networks Caused by Fishing
Andrs, F., Corts, E., Jordn, F., Vctor, H., & Paola, A. D. (2012) · InTech eBooks · doi:10.5772/37787 · Cited by 34
“…relationships within impacted ecosystems have detected strong ecological effects, such as trophic cascades and changes in ecosystem control equilibrium, either top-down or bottom-up (Barausse et al., 2009; Baum & Worm, 2009; www.intechopen.com Diversity of Ecosystems 418 Ferretti et al., 2010).”
Background
Diet and condition of mesopredators on coral reefs in relation to shark abundance
Barley, S. C., Meekan, M. G., & Meeuwig, J. J. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0165113 · Cited by 37
Shedding light on the migratory patterns of the Amazonian goliath catfish, Brachyplatystoma platynemum, using otolith 87Sr/86Sr analyses
Hauser, M., Dória, C. R. D. C., Santos, R. V., GARCÍA-VÁSQUEZ, A. R., Pouilly, M., Pécheyran, C., Ponzevera, E., Torrente‐Vilara, G., Bérail, S., Panfili, J., et al. (2019) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.3046 · Cited by 37
“…structure, functioning, and resilience is so important that modifying their abundance frequently leads to profound ecosystem alterations through cascading effects (Baum & Worm, 2009; Estes et al., 2011; Myers, Baum, Shepherd, Powers, & Peterson, 2007; Pace, Cole, Carpenter, & Kitchell, 1999).”
Background
Exceptionally high but still growing predatory reef fish biomass after 23 years of protection in a Marine Protected Area
Rojo, I., Anadón, J. D., & García‐Charton, J. A. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0246335 · Cited by 33
“predators controlling the abundance of preys; [15, 16]).”
Structure and functioning of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem: A trophic modelling approach
Corrales, X., Preciado, I., Gascuel, D., de Gamiz-Zearra, A. L., Hernvann, P., Mugerza, E., Louzao, M., Velasco, F., Doray, M., López‐López, L., et al. (2021) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2021.107658 · Cited by 38
Cumulative impacts of fisheries in the California Current
Kaplan, I. C., GRAY, I. A., & Levin, P. S. (2012) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2012.00484.x · Cited by 34
Mesopredator release among invasive predators: Controlling red foxes can increase feral cat density and alter their behaviour
Rees, M. W., Pascoe, J., Le, M., Robley, A. J., Birnbaum, E. K., Wintle, B. A., & Hradsky, B. A. (2023) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.14402 · Cited by 33
Invasion and predation in aquatic ecosystems
Weis, J. S. (2011) · Current Zoology · doi:10.1093/czoolo/57.5.613 · Cited by 33
“Top-down effects of species at higher trophic levels on the abundance, diversity, productivity, or community structure of species at lower trophic levels are well documented (Paine, 1966; Strong, 1992; Baum and Worm, 2009).”
Background
Diet and consumption rate of Atlantic bluefin tuna ( Thunnus thynnus ) in the Strait of Gibraltar
Sorell, J. M., Varela, J. L., Goñi, N., Macías, D., Arrizabalaga, H., & Medina, A. (2016) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2016.12.012 · Cited by 36
Long-term ecological footprints of a man-made freshwater discharge onto a sandy beach ecosystem
Jorge-Romero, G., Lercari, D., Ortega, L., & Defeo, O. (2018) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.09.024 · Cited by 33
High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change
Dupont, L., Mézo, P. L., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Clerc, C., Éthé, C., & Olivier, M. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16558 · Cited by 33
“Finally, the representation of HTLs also plays an important role in stabilizing the dynamics of the ecosystem and regulating the abundance of low trophic levels (LTLs; Baum & Worm, 2009; Lynam et al., 2017).”
Background
A state-space approach for detecting growth variation and application to North Pacific groundfish
Stawitz, C. C., Essington, T. E., Branch, T. A., Haltuch, M. A., Hollowed, A. B., & Spencer, P. D. (2015) · Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences · doi:10.1139/cjfas-2014-0558 · Cited by 33
Scale and pattern of broadnose sevengill shark Notorynchus cepedianus movement in estuarine embayments
Williams, G. D., Andrews, K. S., Katz, S. L., Moser, M. L., Tolimieri, N., Farrer, D., & Levin, P. S. (2012) · Journal of Fish Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1095-8649.2011.03179.x · Cited by 33
“…been absent from conceptual models of these estuarine embayments (Parrish et al., 2003; Dumbauld et al., 2008) in the face of mounting evidence suggesting the top–down control of many shallow coastal and continental shelf systems (Heck & Valentine, 2007; Dumbauld et al., 2008; Baum & Worm, 2009).”
Background
A metabarcoding approach for the feeding habits of European hake in the Adriatic Sea
Riccioni, G., Stagioni, M., Piccinetti, C., & Libralato, S. (2018) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.4500 · Cited by 30
Intraguild predation and competition impacts on a subordinate predator
Björklund, H., Santangeli, A., Blanchet, F. G., Huitu, O., Lehtoranta, H., Lindén, H., Valkama, J., & Laaksonen, T. (2016) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-015-3523-z · Cited by 31
“The relative importance and interplay of top–down and bottom–up processes in regulating populations is a focal but controversial issue in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems (Jeppesen et al. 1997; Pace et al. 1999; Baum and Worm 2009; Greenville et al. 2014; Laundré et al. 2014).”
Background
Seasonal, ontogenetic and sexual changes in lipid metabolism of the small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) in deep-sea free-living conditions
Mateus, E. V., Navarro, J., Barría, C., Marta Coll, M., Fernández‐Borràs, J., & Rotllant, G. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2016.07.001 · Cited by 32
Discards in global tuna fisheries
Gilman, E. L., Suuronen, P., & Chaloupka, M. Y. (2017) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps12340 · Cited by 37
“Discards in marine capture fisheries can have profound socioeconomic and ecological effects (Goñi 1998, Baum & Worm 2009, Oro et al. 2013, Fondo et al. 2015, Batsleer et al. 2016, Borges et al. 2016).”
Background
Which are the main threats affecting the marine megafauna in the Bay of Biscay?
García‐Barón, I., Santos, M. B., Uriarte, A., Inchausti, J. I., Escribano, J. M., Albisu, J., Fayos, M., Pis-Millán, J. A., Oleaga, Á., Mier, F. E. A., et al. (2019) · Continental Shelf Research · doi:10.1016/j.csr.2019.07.009 · Cited by 35
Global nutrient cycling by commercially targeted marine fish
Mézo, P. L., Guiet, J., Scherrer, K., Bianchi, D., & Galbraith, E. D. (2022) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-19-2537-2022 · Cited by 32
Human Impacts to Antarctic Wildlife: Predictions and Speculations for 2060
Woehler, E. J., Ainley, D. G., & Jabour, J. (2013) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-6582-5_2 · Cited by 32
“2010) and cascading effects on food webs (Emslie and Patterson 2007; Baum and Worm 2009).”
Background
Animal-Borne Imaging Reveals Novel Insights into the Foraging Behaviors and Diel Activity of a Large-Bodied Apex Predator, the American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis)
Nifong, J. C., Nifong, R. L., Silliman, B. R., Lowers, R. H., Guillette, L. J., Ferguson, J. M., Welsh, M., Abernathy, K., & Marshall, G. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0083953 · Cited by 32
“Understanding the foraging dynamics and behavior of these species can assist conservationists and wildlife managers by providing essential data regarding their interactions within ecosystems, an important task in the face of the rapid declines and losses of many apex and top predator species worldwide [1], [5], [63],…”
Background
Comparative Dietary Diversity and Trophic Ecology of Two Estuarine Mesopredators
Kroetz, A. M., Drymon, J. M., & Powers, S. P. (2016) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/s12237-016-0188-8 · Cited by 31

Authors: Baum, J. K., & Worm, B.
Affiliations: Dalhousie University (CA)
Corresponding author: Baum, Julia K.
ORCID: Baum, Julia K.
Worm, Boris
Venue: Journal of Animal Ecology
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-06-04
Volume: 78
Issue: 4
Pages: 699-714
ISSN: 0021-8790 (ISSN-L)
1365-2656
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01531.x
OpenAlex: W2132556874
Cited by: 932
References: 134
Citations by year: 2026: 48 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 57 · 2023: 67 · 2022: 67 · 2021: 66 · 2020: 55 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 47 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 65 · 2015: 63 · 2014: 57 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 52
FWCI: 4.81
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Journal of Animal Ecology (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Marine animal studies overview
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
Keywords: top-down control, trophic cascades, predator abundance, marine mammals, sharks, piscivorous fish, mesopredator release, invertebrate predators, predator-prey interactions, role reversal, predator recovery, fisheries depletion, predator diversity, bottom-up control, food webs, climate change, marine conservation
MeSH terms: Animals, Oceans and Seas, Population Dynamics, Predatory Behavior, Time Factors, Food Chain

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Cascading top-down effects of changing oceanic predator abundances

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