The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 24 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition
Open accessAbstract
Regime shifts are substantial, long‐lasting reorganizations of complex systems, such as ecosystems. Large ecosystem changes such as eutrophication, shifts among vegetation types, degradation of coral reefs and regional climate change often come as surprises because we lack leading indicators for regime shifts. Increases in variability of ecosystems have been suggested to foreshadow ecological regime shifts. However, it may be difficult to discern variability due to impending regime shift from that of exogenous drivers that affect the ecosystem. We addressed this problem using a model of lake eutrophication. Lakes are subject to fluctuations in recycling associated with regime shifts, as well as fluctuating nutrient inputs. Despite the complications of noisy inputs, increasing variability of lake‐water phosphorus was discernible prior to the shift to eutrophic conditions. Simulations show that rising standard deviation (SD) could signal impending shifts about a decade in advance. The rising SD was detected by studying variability around predictions of a simple time‐series model, and did not depend on detailed knowledge of the actual ecosystem dynamics.
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Cites
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Self-citationRegime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management
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Self-citationCatastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation
Scheffer, M., & Carpenter, S. R. (2003) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2003.09.002 · Cited by 2,795
Self-citationHorsthemke, W. (1984) · Springer Proceedings in Physics · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-46508-6_11 · Cited by 1,310
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MANAGEMENT OF EUTROPHICATION FOR LAKES SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY IRREVERSIBLE CHANGE
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Self-citationEutrophication of aquatic ecosystems: Bistability and soil phosphorus
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Self-citationTolerance of riverine plants to flooding and exposure indicated by water regime
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Cited by
Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1259855 · Cited by 12,527
Self-citationRESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES
Folke, C. (2006) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002 · Cited by 7,749
Early-warning signals for critical transitions
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., & Sugihara, G. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08227 · Cited by 4,854
Self-citationAnticipating Critical Transitions
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., et al. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1225244 · Cited by 2,208
Self-citationMagurran, A. E., Baillie, S. R., Buckland, S. T., Dick, J. M., Elston, D. A., Scott, E. M., Smith, R. I., Somerfield, P. J., & Watt, A. D. (2010) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2010.06.016 · Cited by 940
Metadata
- Authors
- Carpenter, S. R., & Brock, W. A.
- Venue
- Ecology Letters
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2006-01-12
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 311-318
- ISSN
- 1461-023X (ISSN-L)
- 1461-0248
- OpenAlex
- W2123730929
- Cited by
- 963
- References
- 24
- FWCI
- 22.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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