Cited by 285Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsPsychometric Methodologies and TestingPsychological Testing and Assessment

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Stated Expectations as Functions of Probability and Desirability of Outcomes

IRWIN, FRANCIS W.·1953·Journal of Personality

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x

Cites

5 of 5 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

An Experimental Measurement of Utility
Mosteller, F. C., & Nogee, P. (1951) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/257106 · Cited by 497
An Experimental Measurement of Utility
Mosteller, F. C., & Nogee, P. (2007) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-44956-2_11 · Cited by 420
THE EFFECT OF PROBABILITY, DESIRABILITY, AND "PRIVILEGE" ON THE STATED EXPECTATIONS OF CHILDREN*
Marks, R. W. (1951) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1951.tb01107.x · Cited by 234
Acquisition and extinction of a verbal conditioned response with differing percentages of reinforcement.
Grant, D. A., Hake, H. W., & Hornseth, J. P. (1951) · Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0054051 · Cited by 206
Probability as a determiner of rat behavior.
Brunswik, E. (1939) · Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0061204 · Cited by 177

Show all 5 references

Sorted by citations

Items 201–285 of 285

Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors: Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant Functionalist Metaphors
Tetlock, P. E. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.034 · Cited by 7
Socially efficient entry barriers?
Shastitko, A. E., & Pavlova, N. S. (2016) · Baltic Region · doi:10.5922/2079-8555-2016-4-3 · Cited by 7
Harming is more intentional than helping because it is more probable: the underlying influence of probability on the Knobe effect
Nakamura, K. (2018) · Journal of Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1080/20445911.2017.1415345 · Cited by 7
Pro-vaccination Groups Expressing Hesitant Attitudes: A Cross-Sectional Study About the Difference Between Attitudes and Actual Behavior in Israel
Hijazi, R., Gesser‐Edelsburg, A., Feder‐Bubis, P., & Mesch, G. S. (2022) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.871015 · Cited by 6
Belief in free will as an adaptive, ungrounded belief
Smithdeal, M. (2016) · Philosophical Psychology · doi:10.1080/09515089.2016.1219030 · Cited by 6
How Unexpected Consequences of Our Unethical Behavior Can Eventually Turn Against Us
Kesting, P., Kröcher, F., & Smolinski, R. (2025) · Negotiation Journal · doi:10.1162/ngtn_a_00024 · Cited by 5
Preventing Excessive Retail Investor Trading under MiFID: A Behavioural Law & Economics Perspective
Klöhn, L. (2009) · European Business Organization Law Review · doi:10.1017/s1566752909004376 · Cited by 5
Bloggers' Social Presence Framing and Blog Visitors' Responses
Chen, H.-J. (2009) · IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science (ICIS) · doi:10.1109/icis.2009.39 · Cited by 5
The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty
Windschitl, P. D., Miller, J. E., Park, I., Rule, S., Clary, A., & Smith, A. R. (2022) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105254 · Cited by 6
Generality and Correlates of Risks Taking
Heilizer, F., & Cutter, H. S. G. (1971) · The Journal of General Psychology · doi:10.1080/00221309.1971.9920677 · Cited by 5
Preface
Gilovich, T. D., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.001 · Cited by 5
EXPECTANCY CHANGES UNDER CONDITIONS OF RELATIVE MASSING AND SPACING
Phares, E. J. (1961) · Psychological Reports · doi:10.2466/pr0.1961.8.2.199 · Cited by 5
A Rationale for Hiring Irrationally Overconfident Managers
Palmon, O., & Venezia, I. (2012) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5360-4_69 · Cited by 5
Expression theory and the measurement of apparently labile values
Goldstein, W. M., & Einhorn, H. J. (1989) · Annals of Operations Research · doi:10.1007/bf02283514 · Cited by 4
Pill or bill? Influence of monetary incentives on the perceived riskiness and the ethical approval of clinical trials
Hoffart, J. C., & Scheibehenne, B. (2019) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500003363 · Cited by 4
Stochastic representation decision theory: How probabilities and values are entangled dual characteristics in cognitive processes
Ferro, G. M., & Sornette, D. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0243661 · Cited by 5
How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments
Bar‐Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.005 · Cited by 4
Toward a General Theory of Motivation and Performance
Chung, K. H. (1969) · California Management Review · doi:10.2307/41164178 · Cited by 4
An Empirical Analysis of Risk-Taking by Firms in the Savings and Loan Industry
Hester, D. D. (1968) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-349-15248-3_2 · Cited by 4
Endogenous arrivals in batch queues with constant or variable capacity
Rapoport, A., Stein, W. E., Mak, V., Zwick, R., & Seale, D. A. (2010) · Behavioral and Quantitative Game Theory on Conference on Future Directions · doi:10.1145/1807406.1807460 · Cited by 4
The relationship between estimated probabilities and achievement motivation
Schneider, K. (1972) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/0001-6918(72)90036-4 · Cited by 4
Preferences, expectations, and behaviours in interpersonal interaction
Schul, Y., & Benbenishty, R. (1985) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/ejsp.2420150308 · Cited by 4
Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions: An Experimental ApproachPreprint
Fellner-Röhling, G., Güth, W., & Maciejovsky, B. (2002) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.296121 · Cited by 4
The persuasion effects and mechanisms of vivid imagery inducing strategies in negative health messages: exploring the roles of motivation, affect, and message substance.
Myers, J. R. (2009) · University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy (University of Minnesota) · Cited by 4
RETRACTED: Analysing the Causes and Implications of the Privacy Paradox: Consumer Surveillance and Online Data Collection
Wang, Z., & Chen, Z. (2023) · Bulletin of Science Technology & Society · doi:10.1177/02704676231220842 · Cited by 8
Retracted
Общественно-эффективные барьеры входа?
Shastitko, A., & Pavlova, N. S. (2016) · Baltijskij region · doi:10.5922/2074-9848-2016-4-3 · Cited by 3
On the use of discrete-time quantum walks in decision theory
Chen, M., Ferro, G. M., & Sornette, D. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0273551 · Cited by 3
Probability Learning and Gambling Behavior in the Psychopathic Deviate
Snortum, J. R. (1968) · The Journal of General Psychology · doi:10.1080/00221309.1968.9710451 · Cited by 3
The Influence of Reinforcement Value on Rate of Learning and Asymptotic Level of Expectancies
Hess, H. F., & Jessor, R. (1960) · The Journal of General Psychology · doi:10.1080/00221309.1960.9711803 · Cited by 3
Delay as a Variable in Expectancy Changes
Phares, E. J. (1964) · The Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1080/00223980.1964.9916706 · Cited by 3
Do You Get What You Pay for? An Experimental Analysis of Managers' Decisions and Owners' ExpectationsPreprint
Arnold, M. C., Gillenkirch, R. M., & Welker, S. A. (2006) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.926995 · Cited by 3
The effect of value on statements of expectancy under four experimental conditions
Scheibe, K. E. (1964) · The Psychological Record · doi:10.1007/bf03393570 · Cited by 3
Motivation as a Function of Expectancy and Incentive
Beckmann, J., & Heckhausen, H. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-87947-0_5 · Cited by 4
Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances in Support Theory
Rottenstreich, Y., & Tversky, A. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.028 · Cited by 2
Social Biases During Covid 19
Kulesza, W. M., & Doliński, D. (2023) · SpringerBriefs in psychology · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-34706-1 · Cited by 2
APPLICATION OF SINGLE PARTY AND MULTIPLE PARTY DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY TO WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION PROBLEMS
Yamout, G. (2005) · Cited by 2
Polls and Elections: Is Loyalty a Powerful Thing? Republican Senate Campaign Strategy and Trump Coattails in the 2016 Election
Chaturvedi, N. S., & Haynes, C. (2019) · Presidential Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/psq.12523 · Cited by 2
Investigating the influence of outcome utility on estimates of probability
Harris, A. J. L. (2009) · ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) · Cited by 2
“Wishful Thinking” on the Presidential Election
Mascaro, G. F. (1969) · Psychological Reports · doi:10.2466/pr0.1969.25.2.357 · Cited by 2
Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg ParadoxPreprint
Bracha, A., & Brown, D. J. (2008) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1220562 · Cited by 2
Need value and expectancy interrelation as assessed from motivational patternsof parents and their children.
Tyler, F. B., Tyler, B. B., & Rafferty, J. E. (1961) · Journal of Consulting Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0045076 · Cited by 2
Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes
Kogan, S., Schneider, F., & Weber, R. A. (2025) · Games and Economic Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2025.06.008 · Cited by 2
Interactions of expectancy and utility in a choice reaction time paradigm
Geller, E. S., & Williams, D. A. (1976) · Organizational Behavior and Human Performance · doi:10.1016/0030-5073(76)90027-1 · Cited by 1
Instagram: Risk Habituation, Optimism Bias and Privacy Paradox
Barclay, F. P., & Harilal, H. (2025) · Media Watch · doi:10.1177/09760911251371299 · Cited by 1
Voices in the Static: The False Perception of Patterns in the Noise of Everyday Life
Whitson, J. (2007) · Arch · doi:10.21985/n2zq6q · Cited by 1
Judgmental Biases in the Perception of Competitive Advantage: On Choosing the Right Race to Run
Dunning, D. A. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190060800.013.12 · Cited by 1
Local futures traders and behavioural biases: evidence from Australia
Grant, J. (2007) · Research Online (University of Wollongong) · Cited by 1
PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGES IN GAMBLING
Myers, A. E. (1964) · ETS Research Bulletin Series · doi:10.1002/j.2333-8504.1964.tb00513.x · Cited by 1
References
Gilovich, T. D., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.045 · Cited by 1
Effects of Reinforcement Value on Expectancy Statements in Skill and Chance Situations
Phares, E. J. (1965) · Perceptual and Motor Skills · doi:10.2466/pms.1965.20.3.845 · Cited by 1
ACCURACY IN THE JUDGMENT OF CONSISTENCY1
Myers, A. E. (1964) · ETS Research Bulletin Series · doi:10.1002/j.2333-8504.1964.tb00509.x · Cited by 1
Effects of Value of Reinforcement upon Expectancy Statements in “Gambling” and Achievement Tasks
Bell, R. W., & Jamison, N. (1965) · Perceptual and Motor Skills · doi:10.2466/pms.1965.20.1.27 · Cited by 1
Stakeholders Welfare and Executive Compensation Under Managerial OverconfidencePreprint
Palmon, O., & Venezia, I. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1352705 · Cited by 1
When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction among Olympic Medalists
Medvec, V. H., Madey, S. F., & Gilovich, T. D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.037 · Cited by 1
Risk and Ambiguity: Unpacking Uncertainty in Platform Rewards DesignPreprint
Li, A. T., Li, T., & Wang, T. V. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4091123 · Cited by 1
A Rationale for Hiring Irrationally Overconfident Managers
Palmon, O., & Venezia, I. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-91231-4_69 · Cited by 1
AFFECT AND EXPECTATION1
ROSENHAN, D. L., & Messick, S. (1964) · ETS Research Bulletin Series · doi:10.1002/j.2333-8504.1964.tb00692.x
Effects of Negative Expectancy on Probability Learning
Gilley, H. M. (1969) · Psychological Reports · doi:10.2466/pr0.1969.24.1.279
PESSIMISM‐OPTIMISM AND RISK TAKING IN INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP CONTEXTS1
Lamm, H., Trommsdorff, G., & Kogan, N. (1969) · ETS Research Bulletin Series · doi:10.1002/j.2333-8504.1969.tb00734.x
The effect of accuracy motivation and directional motivation on the optimistic bias in prediction of task completion time
Macdonald, H. F. (1995) · Summit (Simon Fraser University)
Multinational Maids: Multistate Migration among Aspiring Filipino Migrant Domestic Workers.
Paul, A. M. (2012) · Deep Blue (University of Michigan)
Online shoppers' decision biases: The effect of response mode
Wu, C.-S. (2011) · AFRICAN JOURNAL OF BUSINESS MANAGEMENT · doi:10.5897/ajbm11.115
THEORETICAL NOTE Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events: A Cautionary Note
Harris, A. J. L., & Hahn, U. (2011)
Impact of manipulated perceived efficacy and self-affirmation on measures of risk, efficacy, and intention
Davidson, M. A., Fabrigar, L. R., & Smart, K. (2011) · PsycEXTRA Dataset · doi:10.1037/e527772014-379
Microstructure des marchés financiers, motifs d'échange et comportement à court terme des prix et des volumes
Abdmoulah, W. (2003)
The influence of desires on young children’s reasoning
Wente, A. (2018) · eScholarship (California Digital Library)
Beliefs estimated from choices in Proposer-Responder Games
Lejarraga, T., Lucena, A., & Rubí‐Barceló, A. (2020) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2020.09.017
Probabilistic Rewards Increase Worker MotivationPreprint
Camilleri, A. R., Danková, K., Gomez, J. M. O., & Neelim, A. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3539871
Strategic position taking: optimal strategy for Senate candidates in the Obama era
Chaturvedi, N. S., & Haynes, C. (2020) · Journal of Legislative Studies · doi:10.1080/13572334.2020.1852868
PS-362-5 転移性膵腫瘍に対する治療方針(PS ポスターセッション,第113回日本外科学会定期学術集会)
蔵元, 一., 橋本, 大., 黒木, 秀., 生田, 義., 中原, 修., 近本, 亮., 別府, 透., & 馬場, 秀. (2013) · 日本外科学会雑誌
The Impact of COVID-19 Probability and Cost Estimates on Worry and Health Behavior Compliance in Young AdultsPreprint
Imbriano, G., Larsen, E. M., An, A. K., Luhmann, C. C., Mohanty, A., & Jin, J. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/cn8dy
Recent Work in Probability and Inference
Acree, M. C. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-73257-8_10
The Role of Internal Financing in Mediating the Influence of Managerial Overconfidence on Investment Decisions; Evidence from Manufacturing of Indonesia
Zaluddin, Sarita, B., S, D. T. A., & Sujono, S. (2021) · International Journal of Management and Education in Human Development
On self-serving strategic beliefs
Schneider, F. (2019) · AEA Randomized Controlled Trials · doi:10.1257/rct.4330
On self-serving strategic beliefs
Schneider, F. (2019) · AEA Randomized Controlled Trials · doi:10.1257/rct.4330-1.0
References
(1990) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-036763-7.50009-4
Data, data and even more data : empowering users to make well-informed decisions about online privacy
Barth, S. (2021) · doi:10.3990/1.9789036551410
Long-term, multi-event surprise enhances autobiographical memoryPreprint
Antony, J. W., Dam, J. V., Massey, J. R., Barnett, A. J., & Bennion, K. A. (2022) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2022.11.27.517985
The Unbearable Darkness of Being and a Toolkit for How We Forge It: Comparative Biases
Kulesza, W. M., & Doliński, D. (2023) · SpringerBriefs in psychology · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-34706-1_1
Does Optimistic Investor Sentiment Accelerate Taiwan Stock Market Liquidity?
Yang, W.-R., & Chuang, M.-C. (2024) · Asia-Pacific Financial Markets · doi:10.1007/s10690-024-09476-5
Motivation durch Erwartung und Anreiz
Beckmann, J., & Heckhausen, H. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-69368-1_5
The cognitive mechanisms behind wishful predictions: A diffusion model decomposition
Strueder, J. D., Park, I., Mordkoff, J. T., Pleskac, T. J., & Windschitl, P. D. (2025) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2025.106386
Interferences between decisional variables : behavioural and computational studies
Bioud, E. (2019) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/5a7bf3b9zcb60z48bdz8ea4z5effd60bb856
Cognitive Bias: Understanding the Anti-Vaxxer
Doliński, D., & Kulesza, W. M. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-18151-0_10
Beliefs estimated from choices in Proposer-Responder GamesPreprint
Rubí‐Barceló, A., Lucena, A., & Lejarraga, T. (2021) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)

Authors: IRWIN, F. W.
Affiliations: University of Pennsylvania (US)
Corresponding author: IRWIN, FRANCIS W.
Venue: Journal of Personality
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 1953-03
Volume: 21
Issue: 3
Pages: 329-335
ISSN: 0022-3506 (ISSN-L)
1467-6494
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x
OpenAlex: W2107175898
Cited by: 281
References: 5
Citations by year: 2026: 1 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 6
FWCI: 3.50
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 19416 d)
Locations: Journal of Personality (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Psychological Testing and Assessment
Keywords: outcome probability, outcome expectations, subjective probability
MeSH terms: Behavior, Humans, Motivation, Probability

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Stated Expectations as Functions of Probability and Desirability of Outcomes

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Related

Metadata

Record

About these checks