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Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters
Open accessAbstract
This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth and, hence, offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting.
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Cites
Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point.
Andrews, D. W. K. (1993) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/2951764 · Cited by 4,334
Cited by
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024 · Cited by 12,458
Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data
Bachmann, R., Elstner, S., & Sims, E. R. (2013) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.5.2.217 · Cited by 991
Metadata
- Authors
- Boero, G., Smith, J., & Wallis, K. F.
- Venue
- The Economic Journal
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2008-06-28
- Volume
- 118
- Issue
- 530
- Pages
- 1107-1127
- ISSN
- 0013-0133 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-0297
- OpenAlex
- W2147852396
- Cited by
- 194
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 16.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Boero, G., Smith, J., & Wallis, K. F. (2008). Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The Economic Journal. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x
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