The DOI matches its Crossref record; 42 of the 42 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data
Abstract
This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate Survey permits construction of uncertainty measures based on both ex ante disagreement and ex post forecast errors. Ex ante disagreement is strongly correlated with dispersion in ex post forecast errors. Surprise movements in either measure lead to significant reductions in production that abate fairly quickly. We extend our analysis to US data, measuring uncertainty with forecast disagreement from the Business Outlook Survey. Surprise increases in forecast dispersion lead to more persistent reductions in production than in the German data. (JEL C53, C83, D81, E23, E27, E32, E37)
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Cites
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Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment
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Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations
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Cited by
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024 · Cited by 12,458
Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.4.1692 · Cited by 2,213
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Kuester, K., & Rubio-Ramírez, J. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20121236 · Cited by 938
Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital
Drobetz, W., El Ghoul, S., Guedhami, O., & Janzen, M. (2018) · Journal of Financial Stability · doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2018.08.005 · Cited by 341
Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises
Scotti, C. (2016) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.06.002 · Cited by 339
Metadata
- Authors
- Bachmann, R., Elstner, S., & Sims, E. R.
- Venue
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2013-04-01
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 217-249
- ISSN
- 1945-7707 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-7715
- OpenAlex
- W3125521856
- Cited by
- 991
- References
- 42
- FWCI
- 185.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Bachmann, R., Elstner, S., & Sims, E. R. (2013). Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.5.2.217
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