The DOI matches its Crossref record; 35 of the 35 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election
Abstract
Many contend that President Bush's reelection and increased vote share in 2004 prove that the Iraq War was either electorally irrelevant or aided him. We present contrary evidence. Focusing on the change in Bush's 2004 showing compared to 2000, we discover that Iraq casualties from a state significantly depressed the President's vote share there. We infer that were it not for the approximately 10,000 U.S. dead and wounded by Election Day, Bush would have won nearly 2% more of the national popular vote, carrying several additional states and winning decisively. Such a result would have been close to forecasts based on models that did not include war impacts. Casualty effects are largest in “blue” states. In contrast, National Guard/Reservist call-ups had no impact beyond the main casualty effect. We discuss implications for both the election modeling enterprise and the debate over the “casualty sensitivity” of the U.S. public.
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Katz, R. S. (1982) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/1961197 · Cited by 2,468
War, Presidents and Public Opinion
(2017) · The SHAFR Guide Online · doi:10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim170220024 · Cited by 1,416
Prime Suspects: The Influence of Local Television News on the Viewing Public
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Cues that Matter: How Political Ads Prime Racial Attitudes During Campaigns
VALENTINO, N. A., HUTCHINGS, V. L., & WHITE, I. K. (2002) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055402004240 · Cited by 770
de Mesquita, B. B., & Siverson, R. M. (1995) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/2082512 · Cited by 654
Public Opinion and American Democracy
Hacker, A., & Key, V. O. (1962) · The Yale Law Journal · doi:10.2307/794507 · Cited by 497
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War, Casualties, and Public Opinion
Gartner, S. S., & Segura, G. M. (1998) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002798042003004 · Cited by 423
Cited by
Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy
HEALY, A., & MALHOTRA, N. (2009) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055409990104 · Cited by 931
Retrospective Voting Reconsidered
Healy, A., & Malhotra, N. (2013) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-212920 · Cited by 667
Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections
GETMANSKY, A., & ZEITZOFF, T. (2014) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055414000288 · Cited by 351
Metadata
- Authors
- Karol, D., & Miguel, E.
- Venue
- The Journal of Politics
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2007-08
- Volume
- 69
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 633-648
- ISSN
- 0022-3816 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-2508
- OpenAlex
- W2123272973
- Cited by
- 317
- References
- 35
- FWCI
- 71.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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