The Role of the Affect and Availability Heuristics in Risk Communication
Abstract
Results of past research suggest that affect plays an important role in risk perception. Because affect may also increase the availability of risks, affect and availability are closely related concepts. Three studies tested the hypothesis that evoking negative affect (fear), either through past experience or through experimental manipulation, results in greater perceived risk. The present research focused on perception of flooding risk. Study 1 and Study 2 showed that participants who received risk information concerning a longer time period (e.g., 30 years) perceived more danger compared with participants who received risk information for one year. Study 2 showed that the interpretation of risk information was influenced by participants' own experiences with flooding. In Study 3, affect was experimentally manipulated. After looking at photographs depicting houses in a flooded region, participants perceived greater risk compared with participants in a control group. Taken together, the results of these three studies suggest that affect is important for successful risk communication. Results of the present research are in line with the affect heuristic proposed by Slovic and colleagues.
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Prior research has documented reliance on an affect heuristic in non-U.S. populations.
“prior research has documented individuals’ bias blind spots (Chandrashekar et al., 2021; Niszczota et al., 2023) and reliance on an affect heuristic (Finucane et al., 2000; Keller et al., 2006) in non-U.S. populations.”
From Everyone I Don’t Like Is Biased: Affective Evaluations and the Bias Blind Spot (2026) · cites this paper as Keller et al., 2006
Cites
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524 · see citing works
Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9 · Cited by 9,984 · cited 3× · see citing works
“Results were interpreted within the framework of the affect heuristic (Slovic et al., 2004) and the availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1982).”
MethodPutting the fear back into fear appeals: the extended parallel process model
Witte, K. (1992) · Communication Monographs · doi:10.1080/03637759209376276 · Cited by 3,880 · see citing works
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Apolinário-Hagen, J., Fritsche, L., Bierhals, C., & Salewski, C. (2018) · Internet Interventions · doi:10.1016/j.invent.2017.12.002 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Everyone I Don’t Like Is Biased: Affective Evaluations and the Bias Blind Spot
Walker, A. C., Collins, R. N., Walker, H. E. K., Fugelsang, J. A., & Mandel, D. R. (2026) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/01461672261439247 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
- Authors
- Keller, C., Siegrist, M., & Gutscher, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Keller, Carmen
- ORCID
- Siegrist, Michael
- Venue
- Risk Analysis
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2006-06
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 631-639
- ISSN
- 0272-4332 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-6924
- OpenAlex
- W2022561594
- Cited by
- 551
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 44 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 28 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 32.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Risk Analysis (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Keywords
- affect heuristic, availability heuristic, risk perception, risk communication, fear, flood risk
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Affect, Attitude, Communication, Decision Making, Female, Humans, Male, Persuasive Communication, Probability, Risk, Time Factors, Risk Assessment, Floods
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