The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?
Abstract
In a duopoly model of informed speculation, we show that overconfidence may strictly dominate rationality since an overconfident trader may not only generate higher expected profit and utility than his rational opponent, but also higher than if he were also rational. This occurs because overconfidence acts like a commitment device in a standard Cournot duopoly. As a result, for some parameter values the Nash equilibrium of a two‐fund game is a Prisoner's Dilemma in which both funds hire overconfident managers. Thus, overconfidence can persist and survive in the long run.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 · Cited by 28,810
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1975) · Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making · doi:10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_8 · Cited by 22,650
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
(1982) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511809477 · Cited by 8,240
Cited by
Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355301556400 · Cited by 5,276
Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00226 · Cited by 3,955
Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing
(2001) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00379 · Cited by 2,357
Odean, T. (1999) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.89.5.1279 · Cited by 2,247
Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (1998) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.139415 · Cited by 1,083
Metadata
- Authors
- KYLE, A. S., & WANG, F. A.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1997-12
- Volume
- 52
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 2073-2090
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W1971685258
- Cited by
- 552
- References
- 3
- FWCI
- 16.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test? https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02751.x
- The paper
- KYLE, A. S., & WANG, F. A. (1997). Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test? The Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02751.x
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
