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Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles
Open accessAbstract
We document cycles in corporate investment corresponding with the timing of national elections around the world. During election years, firms reduce investment expenditures by an average of 4.8% relative to nonelection years, controlling for growth opportunities and economic conditions. The magnitude of the investment cycles varies with different country and election characteristics. We investigate several potential explanations and find evidence supporting the hypothesis that political uncertainty leads firms to reduce investment expenditures until the electoral uncertainty is resolved. These findings suggest that political uncertainty is an important channel through which the political process affects real economic outcomes.
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Cites
La Porta, R., Lopez‐de‐Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1998) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/250042 · Cited by 18,025
Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy
Hibbs, D. A. (1977) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055400269712 · Cited by 3,368
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Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024 · Cited by 12,458
The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market
KELLY, B., PÁSTOR, Ľ., & VERONESI, P. (2016) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12406 · Cited by 760
Public Pressure and Corporate Tax Behavior
DYRENG, S. D., HOOPES, J. L., & WILDE, J. H. (2016) · Journal of Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/1475-679x.12101 · Cited by 533
Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections
Çolak, G., Durnev, A., & Qian, Y. (2017) · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · doi:10.1017/s0022109017000862 · Cited by 486
Fraussen, B., Albareda, A., & Braun, C. (2020) · Policy Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11077-020-09382-3 · Cited by 93
Metadata
- Authors
- JULIO, B., & YOOK, Y.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2012-01-17
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 45-83
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W3125217951
- Cited by
- 2,126
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 161.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
