Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America

Abstract

Many forests of eastern North American are undergoing a species composition shift in which maples ( Acer spp.) are increasingly important while oak ( Quercus spp.) regeneration and recruitment has become increasingly scarce. This dynamic in species composition occurs across a large and geographically complex region. The elimination of fire has been postulated as the driver of this dynamic; however, some assumptions underlying this postulate have not been completely examined, and alternative hypotheses remain underexplored. Through literature review, and a series of new analyses, we examined underlying assumptions of the “oak and fire” hypothesis and explored a series of alternative hypotheses based on well‐known ecosystem drivers: climate change, land‐use change, the loss of foundation and keystone species, and dynamics in herbivore populations. We found that the oak–maple dynamic began during a shift in climate regime‐from a time of frequent, severe, multi‐year droughts to a period of increased moisture availability. Anthropogenic disturbance on the landscape changed markedly during this same time, from an era of Native American utilization, to a time characterized by low population densities, to Euro‐American settlement and subsequent land transmogrification. During the initiation of the oak‐maple dynamic, a foundation species, the American chestnut, was lost as a canopy tree across a broad range. Several important browsers and acorn predators had substantial population dyn…