A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
Abstract
Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent-wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjusted total fertility rate proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney also controls for the parity composition of the female population and provides more stable values than the indicators proposed in the past. Finally, we estimate levels and trends in tempo and parity distribution distortions in selected countries in Europe. Our analysis of period and cohort fertility indicators in the Czech Republic, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden shows that the new adjusted measure gives a remarkable fit with the completed fertility of women in prime childbearing years in a given period, which suggests that it provides an accurate adjustment for tempo and parity composition distortions. Using an expanded dataset for ten countries, we demonstrate that adjusted fertility as measured by TFRp* remained nearly stable since the late 1990s. This finding implies that the recent upturns in the period TFR in Europe are largely explained by a decline in the pace of fertility postponement. Other tempo-adjusted fertility indicators have not indicated such a large role for the…
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Among available tempo adjustment methods, the tempo-and parity-adjusted TFR (TFRp*) gives the most stable results and its values are closest to completed cohort fertility.
“Among the range of available methods it gives most stable results and its values are closest to completed cohort fertility (Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012).”
From Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect (2018) · cites this paper as Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012
The assumption of constant fertility schedule shape is often violated, and variance in fertility schedules in rich low-fertility countries has typically increased in recent decades.
“In reality this assumption is often violated (Zeng and Land 2001), and the variance in fertility schedules in the rich low-fertility countries has typically increased in the last decades (Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012).”
From Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect (2018) · cites this paper as Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012
During the analyzed period, the TFRp* remained remarkably close to the lagged completed cohort fertility among women born until the late 1970s.
“During the analyzed period the TFRp* also remained remarkably close to the lagged completed cohort fertility among women born until the late 1970s, confirming the earlier findings by Bongaarts and Sobotka (2012) on the close correspondence”
From Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect (2018) · cites this paper as Bongaarts and Sobotka (2012)
Cites
Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World
Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., & Philipov, D. (2011) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00411.x · Cited by 863 · see citing works
Self-citationAdvances in development reverse fertility declines
Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F. C. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08230 · Cited by 782 · see citing works
Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?
Sobotka, T. (2004) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.010_1.x · Cited by 355 · see citing works
Self-citationTiming effects and the interpretation of period fertility
Schoen, R. (2004) · Demography · doi:10.1353/dem.2004.0036 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Sobotka, T. (2003) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2003.8.6 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
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Re‐theorizing Family Demographics
Esping‐Andersen, G., & Billari, F. C. (2015) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x · Cited by 763 · see citing works
Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios
Zeman, K., Beaujouan, E., Brzozowska, Z., & Sobotka, T. (2018) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2018.38.25 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Self-citationSobotka, T. (2017) · Journal of Biosocial Science · doi:10.1017/s0021932017000323 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Self-citationLate Motherhood in Low-Fertility Countries: Reproductive Intentions, Trends and Consequences
Sobotka, T., & Beaujouan, É. (2018) · Preventing Age Related Fertility Loss · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-14857-1_2 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Self-citationUltra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect
Yoo, S. H., & Sobotka, T. (2018) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2018.38.22 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
“…also addressed changing variance in fertility schedules by age and the effects of changes in the parity composition of the female population (Bongaarts and Feeney 2006; Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012; Kohler and Ortega 2002; Kohler and Philipov 2001; Pilipov and Kohler 2001; Yamaguchi and Beppu 2004).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialSelf-citation
- Authors
- Bongaarts, J., & Sobotka, T.
- Affiliations
- Population Council (US)
- Austrian Academy of Sciences (AT)
- Venue
- Population and Development Review
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2012-03
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 83-120
- ISSN
- 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
- 1728-4457
- OpenAlex
- W2137093203
- Cited by
- 239
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 52.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Keywords
- fertility trends, fertility postponement, cohort fertility, European fertility, fertility indicators, completed fertility
- MeSH terms
- Birth Rate, Cultural Characteristics, Demography, Europe, Fertility, Humans, Socioeconomic Factors, Women's Health, Population Groups, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century
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