CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 765Family Dynamics and RelationshipsGender, Labor, and Family DynamicsIntergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies

Re‐theorizing Family Demographics

Open access
Esping‐Andersen, Gøsta, Billari, Francesco C.·2015·Population and Development Review
DOI 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

Two dominant theories within family research foresee a long‐term decline in marriage, fertility, and partner stability. They also assume that this “less‐family” scenario will be spearheaded by higher‐educated strata. Trends in the latter half of the twentieth century seemed to provide ample support for both predictions. However, recent signs of change in family behavior raise doubts about their continued validity. In a number of countries we see a halt to, and even reversal of, fertility decline and of couple instability. In parallel, we observe a reversal of the social gradient on both dimensions. Applying a multiple equilibrium framework, we propose a theoretical framework that helps explain both the phase of marital and fertility decline and the subsequent recovery. We focus especially on the endogenous dynamics of the process, which, we argue, depend on the conditions that favor rapid diffusion. Our core argument is that the turnaround is driven by the diffusion of gender‐egalitarian norms.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x

Cites

100 of 100 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Theories on gender and fertility suggest a decline in fertility with women's rising participation in education and employment, which would make women dually burdened with paid work and care of their families.

    “Theories on gender and fertility development have suggested a decline in fertility with women’s rising participation in education and employment, which would make women dually burdened with paid work and care of their families.”

    From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015

    The Opportunity-cost hypothesis section says women continued to do most domestic work as they gained marketable skills, and that fertility would be lower in that situation. But Explaining the turnaround qualifies this pattern: the negative relationship between female employment and fertility had reversed by the 1990s, and low fertility is expected where institutions and partnerships have not adapted to women’s changing roles. The claim omits that condition. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Greater gender equity within the family will have the strongest fertility-promoting effect among highly educated women because of their greater opportunity costs when their involvement in paid work is restricted.

    “All of these theories imply that greater gender equity within the family will have the strongest fertility-promoting effect among highly educated women because of their greater opportunity costs when their involvement in paid work is restricted.”

    From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015

    In “Explaining the turnaround” (page unavailable), the paper says gender egalitarianism becomes a precondition for higher fertility when women work. “What is gender equality?” links the reversal in fertility patterns to highly educated women, while “Opportunity-cost hypothesis” says the costs of full-time housewifery are especially high for women with strong earnings potential. The paper does not establish that greater equity within the family has its strongest fertility-promoting effect among highly educated women. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Many scholars argue that gendered associations between education and fertility are weakening or reversing, mostly due to changing gender relations in the public and private spheres.

    “Many scholars argue that these gendered associations are weakening or even reversing. This is mostly attributed to changing gender relations in the public and private spheres (McDonald 2000; Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015; Goldscheider et al. 2015; Anderson and Kohler 2015).”

    From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015

  • If men take more caring responsibilities and share family work more equally with their partners, fertility levels may be maintained or even increase.

    “Scholars further argue that if men take more caring responsibilities and share family work more equally with their partners, fertility levels may be maintained or even increase (McDonald 2000; Neyer et al. 2013; Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015; Goldscheider et al. 2015; Anderson and Kohler 2015).”

    From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015

  • Taken together, parental leave and childcare seem to have the potential to shift a society to a higher fertility equilibrium.

    “Taking evidence from the Nordic and Central European contexts to-”

    From Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature (2021) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 101 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 7

  1. ---. 1981. A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  2. Creighton, Mathew, Gosta Esping-Andersen, Roberta Rutigliano, and Maike van Damme. 2013. "Is fertility influenced by couple instability?" in Gosta Esping-Andersen (ed.), The Low Fertility Syndrome. Barcelona: Fundacion La Caixa.
  3. Ellwood, David T. and Christopher Jencks. 2004. "The uneven spread of single-parent families: What do we know? Where do we look for answers?" in Kathryn M. Neckerman (ed.), Social Inequality. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, pp. 3-77.
  4. Esping-Andersen, Gøsta. 2009. The Incomplete Revolution: Adapting Welfare States to Women's New Roles. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press.
  5. Goode, William J. 1962. "Marital satisfaction and instability: A cross-cultural class analysis of divorce rates," International Social Science Journal 14(3): 544-567.
  6. Gornick, Janet C., Marcia K. Meyers, and Katherin E. Ross. 1998. "Public policy and the employment of mothers: A cross-national study," Social Sciences Quarterly 79(1): 35-54.
  7. Scott, J. and M. Braun. 2006. "Individualization of family values?" in P. Ester, M. Braun, and P. Mohler (eds.), Globalization, Value Changes and Generations. Brill Academic Publishers.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Esping‐Andersen, G., & Billari, F. C.
Affiliations
  • Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
ORCID
Venue
Population and Development Review
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2015-03
Volume
41
Issue
1
Pages
1-31
ISSN
  • 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
  • 1728-4457
DOI
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x
OpenAlex
W2026143456
Cited by
763
References
101
Citations by year
2026: 59 · 2025: 65 · 2024: 69 · 2023: 83 · 2022: 73 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 93 · 2019: 69 · 2018: 67 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 1
FWCI
143.01
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 16 d)
Locations
  • Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies
Keywords
family demographics, fertility decline, marriage decline, social gradient, norm diffusion, fertility restoration, endogenous dynamics

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review