Tracking Construction Material over Space and Time: Prospective and Geo‐referenced Modeling of Building Stocks and Construction Material Flows
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Summary: Construction material plays an increasingly important role in the environmental impacts of buildings. In order to investigate impacts of materials on a building level, we present a bottom‐up building stock model that uses three‐dimensional and geo‐referenced building data to determine volumetric information of material stocks in Swiss residential buildings. We used a probabilistic modeling approach to calculate future material flows for the individual buildings. We investigated six scenarios with different assumptions concerning per‐capita floor area, building stock turnover, and construction material. The Swiss building stock will undergo important structural changes by 2035. While this will lead to a reduced number in new constructions, material flows will increase. Total material inflow decreases by almost half while outflows double. In 2055, the total amount of material in‐ and outflows are almost equal, which represents an important opportunity to close construction material cycles. Total environmental impacts due to production and disposal of construction material remain relatively stable over time. The cumulated impact is slightly reduced for the wood‐based scenario. The scenario with more insulation material leads to slightly higher material‐related emissions. An increase in per‐capita floor area or material turnover will lead to a considerable increase in impacts. The new modeling approach overcomes the limitations of previous bottom‐up building models and allows for investigating building material flows and stocks in space and time. This supports the development of tailored strategies to reduce the material footprint and environmental impacts of buildings and settlements.
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Long lifespans of buildings may lead to lock-ins of specific use patterns which no longer meet current needs or reflect the current state of energy efficiency.
“These long lifespans may lead to lock-ins of specific use patterns which no longer meet current needs or reflect the current state of energy efficiency [43][44][45].”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [44]
Scenarios of future residential buildings often assume that buildings will become more spacious, which is detrimental to ME.
“Scenarios of future residential buildings often assume that buildings will become more spacious [44,[52][53][54][55] which is detrimental to ME.”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [44]
In Switzerland, a continued growth of floor area by 20% until 2050 would lead to an increase in cumulated material-related GHG emissions of 8% compared to a baseline scenario.
“In Switzerland, a continued growth of floor area by 20% until 2050 would lead to an increase in cumulated material-related GHG emissions of 8% compared to a baseline scenario [44].”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [44]
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- Authors
- Heeren, N., & Hellweg, S.
- Affiliations
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Heeren, Niko
- Venue
- Journal of Industrial Ecology
- Published
- 2018-03-05
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 253-267
- ISSN
- 1088-1980 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9290
- OpenAlex
- W2786408303
- Cited by
- 218
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 32 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 33 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 8.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Industrial Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (136612)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Sustainable Building Design and Assessment
- Keywords
- building stock modelling, material stocks, residential buildings, material footprint, material cycling, building materials emissions, wood products, insulators, environmental impact of buildings, scenario analysis
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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