The DOI matches its Crossref record; 27 of the 27 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Stock Returns over the FOMC Cycle
Open accessAbstract
We document that since 1994, the equity premium is earned entirely in weeks 0, 2, 4, and 6 in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cycle time, that is, even weeks starting from the last FOMC meeting. We causally tie this fact to the Fed by studying intermeeting target changes, Fed funds futures, and internal Board of Governors meetings. The Fed has affected the stock market via unexpectedly accommodating policy, leading to large reductions in the equity premium. Evidence suggests systematic informal communication of Fed officials with the media and financial sector as a channel through which news about monetary policy has reached the market.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
What explains the stock market’s reaction to federal reserve policy?
BERNANKE, B. S., & KUTTNER, K. N. (2005) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00760.x · Cited by 2,384
Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market
Kuttner, K. N. (2001) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/s0304-3932(01)00055-1 · Cited by 2,049
Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence
Rey, H. (2015) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w21162 · Cited by 2,027
Gürkaynak, R. S., Sack, B., & Swanson, E. T. (2004) · Finance and Economics Discussion Series · doi:10.17016/feds.2004.66 · Cited by 1,560
High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect*
Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2018) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjy004 · Cited by 1,405
Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence
Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D.-J. (2008) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.46.4.910 · Cited by 1,383
Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates
Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2000) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.90.3.429 · Cited by 1,047
Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance
Campbell, J. R., Evans, C. L., Fisher, J. D. M., & Justiniano, A. (2012) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2012.0004 · Cited by 740
The Pre‐FOMC Announcement Drift
LUCCA, D. O., & MOENCH, E. (2015) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12196 · Cited by 624
What is the Expected Return on the Market?*
Martin, I. (2017) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjw034 · Cited by 531
Cited by
Pricing Climate Change Exposure
Sautner, Z., van Lent, L., Vilkov, G., & Zhang, R. (2023) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2023.4686 · Cited by 280
Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter
Bianchi, F., Gómez-Cram, R., Kind, T., & Kung, H. (2023) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.001 · Cited by 89
Metadata
- Authors
- CIESLAK, A., MORSE, A., & VISSING‐JORGENSEN, A.
- Venue
- The Journal of Finance
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2019-06-20
- Volume
- 74
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 2201-2248
- ISSN
- 0022-1082 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-6261
- OpenAlex
- W3123846085
- Cited by
- 341
- References
- 27
- FWCI
- 38.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Stock Returns over the FOMC Cycle. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/jofi.12818
- The paper
- CIESLAK, A., MORSE, A., & VISSING‐JORGENSEN, A. (2019). Stock Returns over the FOMC Cycle. The Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12818
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.