Ten Reasons to Care about the Sleeping Beauty Problem
Abstract
Abstract The Sleeping Beauty Problem attracts so much attention because it connects to a wide variety of unresolved issues in formal epistemology, decision theory, and the philosophy of science. The problem raises unanswered questions concerning relative frequencies, objective chances, the relation between self‐locating and non‐self‐locating information, the relation between self‐location and updating, Dutch Books, accuracy arguments, memory loss, indifference principles, the existence of multiple universes, and many‐worlds interpretations of quantum mechanics. After stating the problem, this article surveys its connections to all of these areas.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
Ontological Relativity and Other Essays
Quine, W. V. (1969) · doi:10.7312/quin92204 · Cited by 3,593 · see citing works
"Relative State" Formulation of Quantum Mechanics
Everett, H. (1957) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.29.454 · Cited by 3,379 · see citing works
Foundations of the theory of probability
Kolmogorov, A. N. (1960) · The Mathematical Gazette · doi:10.2307/3611503 · Cited by 2,260 · see citing works
Lewis, D. (1979) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.2307/2184843 · Cited by 1,944 · see citing works
A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism
Joyce, J. M. (1998) · Philosophia Scientiæ · doi:10.1086/392661 · Cited by 625 · see citing works
On the Interpretation of Decision Problems with Imperfect Recall
Piccione, M., & Rubinstein, A. (1997) · Games and Economic Behavior · doi:10.1006/game.1997.0536 · Cited by 404 · see citing works
Oxford Studies In Epistemology
(2005) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780199285891.001.0001 · Cited by 400 · see citing works
Justifying Conditionalization: Conditionalization Maximizes Expected Epistemic Utility
Greaves, H., & Wallace, D. (2006) · Mind · doi:10.1093/mind/fzl607 · Cited by 384 · see citing works
Conditionalization and observation
Teller, P. (1973) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/bf00873264 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
(2002) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 332 · see citing works
13. A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance
Lewis, D. D. (1980) · University of California Press eBooks · doi:10.1525/9780520318328-009 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem
Elga, A. (2000) · Analysis · doi:10.1111/1467-8284.00215 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Accuracy and Coherence: Prospects for an Alethic Epistemology of Partial Belief
Joyce, J. M. (2009) · Synthese Library/Synthese library · doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-9198-8_11 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
The reference class problem is your problem too
Hájek, A. (2007) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-006-9138-5 · Cited by 285 · see citing works
Belief and the problem of Ulysses and the sirens
van Fraassen, B. C. (1995) · Philosophical Studies · doi:10.1007/bf00996309 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Evolution, learning, and economic behavior
Selten, R. (1991) · Games and Economic Behavior · doi:10.1016/0899-8256(91)90003-w · Cited by 247 · see citing works
An Objective Justification of Bayesianism II: The Consequences of Minimizing Inaccuracy
Leitgeb, H., & Pettigrew, R. (2010) · Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1086/651318 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
An Objective Justification of Bayesianism I: Measuring Inaccuracy*
Leitgeb, H., & Pettigrew, R. (2010) · Philosophia Scientiæ · doi:10.1086/651317 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy
(2017) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199607617.001.0001 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Our Knowledge of the Internal World
STALNAKER, R. C. (2008) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199545995.001.0001 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Understanding Deutsch's probability in a deterministic multiverse
Greaves, H. (2004) · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics · doi:10.1016/j.shpsb.2004.04.006 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
The Complete Grimm's Fairy Tales
Grimm, W., & Grimm, J. (2019) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Some Problems for Conditionalization and Reflection
Arntzenius, F. (2003) · The Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.5840/jphil2003100729 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Two principles of Bayesian epistemology
Talbott, W. J. (1991) · Philosophical Studies · doi:10.1007/bf00419049 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Some Problems for Conditionalization and Reflection
Arntzenius, F. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-20451-2_10 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty and the Dynamics of De Se Beliefs
Meacham, C. J. G. (2008) · Philosophical Studies · doi:10.1007/s11098-006-9036-1 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Defeating Dr. Evil with Self‐Locating Belief
Elga, A. (2004) · Philosophy and Phenomenological Research · doi:10.1111/j.1933-1592.2004.tb00400.x · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty: reply to Elga
Lewis, D. (2001) · Analysis · doi:10.1111/1467-8284.00291 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
The Relevance of Self Locating Beliefs
Titelbaum, M. G. (2008) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.1215/00318108-2008-016 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Self-citationHitchcock, C. (2004) · Synthese · doi:10.1023/b:synt.0000024889.29125.c0 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Moss, S. J. (2012) · Philosophy and Phenomenological Research · doi:10.1111/j.1933-1592.2011.00572.x · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty and Self-location: A Hybrid Model
Bostrom, N. (2006) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-006-9010-7 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty Reconsidered: Conditioning and Reflection in Asynchronous Systems
Halpern, J. Y. (2005) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780199285891.003.0005 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Bayesianism II: Applications and Criticisms
Easwaran, K. (2011) · Philosophy Compass · doi:10.1111/j.1747-9991.2011.00398.x · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Self-location is no problem for conditionalization
Bradley, D. (2010) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-010-9748-9 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Uncertainty and probability for branching selves
Lewis, P. J. (2006) · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics · doi:10.1016/j.shpsb.2006.02.001 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty awakened: new odds at the dawn of the new day
Horgan, T. G. (2004) · Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.0003-2638.2004.00454.x · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Bayesianism I: Introduction and Arguments in Favor
Easwaran, K. (2011) · Philosophy Compass · doi:10.1111/j.1747-9991.2011.00399.x · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty: in defence of Elga
Dorr, C. (2002) · Analysis · doi:10.1111/1467-8284.00371 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
When betting odds and credences come apart: more worries for Dutch book arguments
Bradley, D., & Leitgeb, H. (2006) · Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8284.2006.00598.x · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Four Problems About Self-Locating Belief
Bradley, D. (2012) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.1215/00318108-1539071 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Minimizing Inaccuracy for Self-Locating Beliefs
Kierland, B., & Monton, B. (2005) · Philosophy and Phenomenological Research · doi:10.1111/j.1933-1592.2005.tb00533.x · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty, Countable Additivity, and Rational Dilemmas
Ross, J. J. (2010) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.1215/00318108-2010-010 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Unravelling the Tangled Web: Continuity, Internalism, Non-Uniqueness and Self-Locating Beliefs
Meacham, C. J. G. (2010) · PhilPapers (PhilPapers Foundation) · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Confirmation in a Branching World: The Everett Interpretation and Sleeping Beauty
Bradley, D. (2011) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axq013 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Diachronic Dutch Books and Sleeping Beauty
Draper, K., & Pust, J. (2007) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-007-9226-1 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Quitting Certainties: A Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief
Titelbaum, M. G. (2012) · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199658305.001.0001 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Self-citationSchervish, M. J., Seidenfeld, T., & KADANE, J. B. (2004) · The Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.5840/jphil2004101614 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty and shifted Jeffrey conditionalization
Kim, N. (2008) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-008-9443-2 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Reflections on Sleeping Beauty
Arntzenius, F. (2002) · Analysis · doi:10.1111/1467-8284.00330 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Should We Respond to Evil with Indifference?
Weatherson, B. (2005) · Philosophy and Phenomenological Research · doi:10.1111/j.1933-1592.2005.tb00417.x · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Self-Locating Belief in Big Worlds: Cosmology’s Missing Link to Observation
Bostrom, N. (2002) · The Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.5840/jphil2002991211 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Changing minds in a changing world
Schwarz, W. (2011) · Philosophical Studies · doi:10.1007/s11098-011-9699-0 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Everettian Confirmation and Sleeping Beauty
Wilson, A. (2013) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axt018 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Imaging and Sleeping Beauty: A case for double-halfers
Cozic, M. (2009) · International Journal of Approximate Reasoning · doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2009.06.010 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Conditionalization and Essentially Indexical Credence
Pust, J. (2012) · The Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.5840/jphil2012109411 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Hawley, P. (2011) · Noûs · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0068.2010.00817.x · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Selection Biases in Likelihood Arguments
Kotzen, M. (2012) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axr044 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Sleeping Beauty and direct inference
Pust, J. (2011) · Analysis · doi:10.1093/analys/anr016 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Cartesian Knowledge and Confirmation
Pust, J. (2007) · The Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.5840/jphil2007104619 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
An objectivist argument for thirdism
Seminar, O. (2008) · Analysis · doi:10.1093/analys/68.2.149 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
An Embarrassment for Double-Halfers
Titelbaum, M. G. (2012) · Thought A Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.1002/tht.21 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationUndercutting defeat via reference properties of differing arity: a reply to Pust
Thorn, P. D. (2011) · Analysis · doi:10.1093/analys/anr099 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The Dynamics of Indexical Belief
Schulz, M. (2010) · Erkenntnis · doi:10.1007/s10670-010-9209-3 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Lewis, P. J. (2009) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-009-9528-6 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Judy Benjamin is a Sleeping Beauty
Bovens, L. (2009) · Analysis · doi:10.1093/analys/anp127 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Lost memories and useless coins: revisiting the absentminded driver
Schwarz, W. (2015) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-015-0699-z · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-Locating Belief in Big Worlds: Cosmology's Missing Link to Observation
Bostrom, N. (2002) · The Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.2307/3655771 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
(1975) · Science Education · doi:10.1002/sce.3730590320 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
De se belief and rational choice
Shaw, J. R. (2011) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-011-0044-0 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Indifference: The Symmetries of Probability
van Fraassen, B. C. (1989) · doi:10.1093/0198248601.003.0012 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
The evidential relevance of self-locating information
Draper, K. (2012) · Philosophical Studies · doi:10.1007/s11098-012-0033-2 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Multiple Universes and Self-Locating Evidence
Isaacs, Y., Hawthorne, J., & Sanford Russell, J. (2022) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.1215/00318108-9743809 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
- Authors
- Titelbaum, M. G.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Titelbaum, Michael G.
- Venue
- Philosophy Compass
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-11
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1003-1017
- ISSN
- 1747-9991 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1815813971
- Cited by
- 27
- References
- 72
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 14.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Philosophy Compass (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Philosophy and Theoretical Science
- Keywords
- Sleeping Beauty problem, relative frequency, objective chance, Dutch book argument, memory loss, many-worlds interpretation, quantum mechanics, updating, decision theory, formal epistemology
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
