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Degradation and forgone removals increase the carbon impact of intact forest loss by 626%

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Maxwell, Sean L., Evans, Tom, Watson, James E. M., Morel, Alexandra, Grantham, Hedley, Duncan, Adam, Harris, Nancy, Potapov, Peter +4 more·2019·Science Advances
DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aax2546PMC PMC6821461
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Abstract

More complete accounting reveals how intact tropical forest loss plays a larger-than-realized role in exacerbating climate change.

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  • Associated above-ground carbon losses from forest degradation have been estimated to increase estimates of gross deforestation losses by approximately 25% up to >600%, with additional unknown soil carbon losses.

    “associated above-ground carbon losses have been estimated to increase estimates of gross deforestation losses by approximately 25% up to >600% (17), with additional, unknown amounts of carbon lost from soils.”

    From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [17]

    The Results (Fig. 2; page unavailable) report a 626% increase over the forest-clearance estimate, but that figure includes forgone carbon removals as well as emissions from degradation. It does not establish a range starting at approximately 25% for above-ground degradation losses. The soil-carbon clause follows the citation in the citing sentence, so it is not treated as attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.90)

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    “Still, at least in many tropical forest regions, the area of degraded forests could well equal or even exceed the area of deforestation (15, 16); associated above-ground carbon losses have been estimated to increase estimates of gross deforestation losses by approximately 25% up to >600% (17), with additional, unknown…”
    Background

Authors
Maxwell, S. L., Evans, T., Watson, J. E. M., Morel, A., Grantham, H., Duncan, A., Harris, N., Potapov, P., Runting, R. K., Venter, O., Wang, S., & Malhi, Y.
Affiliations
  • Wildlife Conservation Society (US)
  • Zoological Society of London (GB)
  • World Resources Institute (US)
  • University of Maryland, College Park (US)
  • The University of Melbourne (AU)
  • University of Northern British Columbia (CA)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
Corresponding author
Maxwell, Sean L.
ORCID
Venue
Science Advances
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published
2019-10-11
Volume
5
Issue
10
Pages
eaax2546-eaax2546
ISSN
2375-2548 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1126/sciadv.aax2546
PMC
PMC6821461
OpenAlex
W2982511501
Cited by
129
References
6
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 23
FWCI
9.39
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by-nc
Locations
  • Science Advances (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Discovery Research Portal (University of Dundee) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
Funders
John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
Keywords
deforestation, CO2 emissions, carbon sequestration, selective logging, edge effects, defaunation, forest degradation, climate change mitigation, forest conservation, land use change, carbon accounting
MeSH terms
Carbon, Conservation of Natural Resources, Geography, Tropical Climate, Forests

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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