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Cited by 630Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource ManagementFire effects on ecosystemsForest ecology and management

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Open access
Lapola, David M., Pinho, Patricia, Barlow, Jos, Aragão, Luiz E. O. C., Berenguer, Erika, Carmenta, Rachel, Liddy, Hannah M., Seixas, Hugo +27 more·2023·Science
DOI 10.1126/science.abp8622
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Abstract

Approximately 2.5 × 10 6 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year −1 ), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year −1 ). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This Analytical Review synthesizes evidence that extreme droughts, edge effects, timber extraction, and fire degrade large areas of remaining Amazon forest, with carbon losses comparable to deforestation. It projects that degradation will remain a major carbon source by 2050 even if deforestation is halted, requiring policies that address degradation separately.

Key findings

  • For 2001–2018, fire affected 122,624 km², timber extraction 119,700 km², edge effects 188,531 km², and drought 2,740,647 km²; combined fire, timber, and edge degradation affected at least 364,748 km² (5.5% of remaining Amazon forest), equal to 112% of the 325,975 km² deforested in the same period. Adding drought raised the total degraded area to 2,542,593 km², or 38% of remaining Amazon forests.
  • Estimated carbon loss from disturbances ranged from 0.05 to 0.20 PgC yr⁻¹, comparable to deforestation emissions of 0.06 to 0.21 PgC yr⁻¹. Disturbances can cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation, and forests degraded by fire and timber extraction had 2% to 34% less dry-season evapotranspiration.
  • First-order 2050 projections gave annual carbon emissions of 0.06 PgC yr⁻¹ under a governance scenario and 0.42 PgC yr⁻¹ under business-as-usual; the degradation-to-deforestation carbon ratio remained high (GOV: 1.04; BAU: 0.74). Drought dominated BAU emissions (63%), while fire dominated GOV emissions (59%).
  • Benefits and burdens are misaligned: material benefits often accrue to external or elite actors, while burdens concentrate locally; timber extraction in the Brazilian Amazon generated US$459.5 million in 2018 even omitting the clandestine market.

Methods

  • Analytical review compiling published spatially explicit datasets for four disturbances over 2001–2018: burned area (MCD64A1, 500 m), timber extraction (LUH2, 27 km), edge effects (MapBiomas/Silva-Junior approach, 30–120 m), and drought (CRU 4.0, 0.5°). These layers were overlaid to estimate extent and overlaps.
  • 2050 projections combined existing disturbance projections under “governance” (GOV) and “business-as-usual” (BAU) deforestation scenarios, using SimAmazonia 1, CMIP5 RCP4.5/RCP8.5, LUH2, a fire model, and deterministic carbon-loss factors.
  • Carbon loss estimates used an aboveground biomass dataset for 2000 and disturbance-specific factors; the reference forest area was MapBiomas 2018 forest extent with 81.3% accuracy.

Limitations

  • The paper states important uncertainties remain in quantifying the area affected by different disturbances, their longer-term impacts, and how severity is modified by co-occurrence, repeated events, or management changes. Timber extraction extent is highly uncertain, with approximately 50% or more of Amazon timber extraction estimated to be illegal and thus absent from census or the product used.
  • The paper notes that projections probably underestimate future degradation because they omit feedbacks and interactions among disturbances; comparisons among studies are confounded by different spatial and temporal scales and disturbance types; not all extreme droughts in 2001–2018 were unequivocally attributed to human-induced climate change; and cumulative impacts of multiple droughts on aboveground carbon are unknown.
  • Evident from the text: the review relies on existing datasets with differing resolutions and assumptions, such as assuming a systematic distribution of logged forests within 27-km grid cells, and it does not present new primary field data.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1126/science.abp8622

Cites

122 of 122 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 203 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingnone given

    First-order 2050 projections indicate the four main disturbances will remain a major threat and source of carbon fluxes to the atmosphere, independent of deforestation trajectories.

    “First-order 2050 projections indicate the four main disturbances will remain a major threat and source of carbon fluxes to the atmosphere, independent of deforestation trajectories.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingcitation

    Disturbances can bring about as much biodiversity loss as deforestation itself.

    “Disturbances can bring about as much biodiversity loss as deforestation itself, while forests degraded by fire and timber extraction can have a 2% to 34% reduction in dry-season evapotranspiration.”
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  • Findingcitation

    The product used shows an annual rate of 6,623.5 km 2 y -1 affected by timber extraction from 2001-2018 in the Brazilian Amazon.

    “The product used here (42) shows an annual rate of 6,623.5 km 2 y - 1 affected by timber extraction from 2001-2018 in the Brazilian Amazon.”
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    • cites [42]

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  • Findingcitation

    Forests degraded by fire and timber extraction can have a 2% to 34% reduction in dry-season evapotranspiration.

    “Disturbances can bring about as much biodiversity loss as deforestation itself, while forests degraded by fire and timber extraction can have a 2% to 34% reduction in dry-season evapotranspiration.”
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    • cites [35]

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  • Findingcitation

    In landscapes with c. 80% forest cover in the eastern Amazon, the combined influence of forest disturbances in remaining forest results in about as much biodiversity loss as the loss of habitat in the deforested areas.

    “In landscapes with c. 80% forest cover in the eastern Amazon, the combined influence of forest disturbances in remaining forest results in about as much biodiversity loss as the loss of habitat in the deforested areas (7).”
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    • cites [7]

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  • May combine two claims. 81
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 11
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Adding data on extreme droughts increases the estimate of total degraded area to 2.5 x10 6 km 2, or 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests.

    “Adding data on extreme droughts increases the estimate of total degraded area to 2.5 x10 6 km 2 , or 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: For purposes of accounting for overlaps between timber extraction and other disturbances, logged forests are systematically distributed within the 27-km resolution grid-cell used for timber extraction.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Using the two highest spatial resolution datasets (burned and edge areas), 25% of the total burned forest area was within 120 m of an edge, affecting 17% of the total edge area.

    “Using the two highest spatial resolution datasets (burned and edge areas) we found that 25% of the total burned forest area was within 120 m of an edge, affecting 17% of the total edge area.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Analysis of existing data on the extent of fire, edge effects and timber extraction between 2001 and 2018 reveals that 0.36 x10 6 km 2 (5.5%) of the Amazon forest is under some form of degradation, which corresponds to 112% of the total area deforested in that period.

    “Analysis of existing data on the extent of fire, edge effects and timber extraction between 2001 and 2018 reveals that 0.36 x10 6 km 2 (5.5%) of the Amazon forest is under some form of degradation, which corresponds to 112% of the total area deforested in that period.”
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    • cites [49]

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    • cites [50]

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    • The authors state this as an assumption: For purposes of accounting for overlaps between timber extraction and other disturbances, logged forests are systematically distributed within the 27-km resolution grid-cell used for timber extraction.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Estimated carbon loss from these forest disturbances ranges from 0.05 to 0.20 PgC yr -1 and is comparable to carbon loss from deforestation (0.06-0.21PgC yr -1 ).

    “Estimated carbon loss from these forest disturbances ranges from 0.05 to 0.20 PgC yr -1 and is comparable to carbon loss from deforestation (0.06-0.21PgC yr -1 ).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Forest fires intensify during drought years, leading to acute peaks in burned area: 14,584 km 2 and 32,815 km 2 in the dry years of 2005 and 2010, respectively; this is two to four times the mean total forest area burned in all other years in the 2001-2018 period (7,701 km 2 ).

    “Forest fires intensify during drought years (10,23,24,45,46) leading to acute peaks in burned area: 14,584 km 2 and 32,815 km 2 in the dry years of 2005 and 2010, respectively.This is two to four times the mean total forest area burned in all other years in the 2001-2018 period (7,701 km 2 ).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Longer-term assessments of drought impacts show mixed results, with plot-based studies reporting both rapid recovery and sustained effects lasting at least three years.

    “Longer-term assessments of drought impacts show mixed results, with plot-based studies reporting both rapid recovery (62) and sustained effects lasting at least three years (23).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The impacts of forest disturbance extend to aquatic biota, and even reduced-impact logging affects the composition and functional traits of stream fishes.

    “The impacts of forest disturbance extend to aquatic biota, and even reduced-impact logging affects the composition and functional traits of stream fishes (72).”
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    • cites [72]

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Recurrent fires can lead to losses of over 80% of aboveground carbon, and almost one third of the burned area has been burned either twice (18%) or three or more times (13%).

    “Recurrent fires can lead to losses of over 80% of aboveground carbon (17) (Fig. 3), which is important as almost one third of the burned area has been burned either twice (18%) or three or more times (13%) (Fig. 2).”
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    • cites [17]

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Even omitting the sizable clandestine market, timber extraction in the Brazilian Amazon generated US$459.5 million in 2018, which was not well-distributed.

    “For instance, even omitting the sizable clandestine market (34,48), timber extraction in the Brazilian Amazon generated US$459.5 million in 2018 (86), which was not well-distributed (4).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The magnitude of change for ET seems to be far less than that for carbon stocks, with recovery occurring within seven years of repeated forest fires.

    “However, the magnitude of change for ET seems to be far less than that for carbon stocks (35, 67), with recovery occurring within seven years of repeated forest fires (67).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The post-disturbance recovery of forest fauna can be slow, and understory forest-specialist birds do not recover their original abundances even 10 years after a single fire event.

    “The post-disturbance recovery of forest fauna can be slow, and understory forestspecialist birds do not recover their original abundances even 10 years after a single fire event (75).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Carbon losses from edge effects are most pronounced after the first four years; as 66% of current edges are older than this, most will have incurred these losses.

    “Carbon losses from edge effects are most pronounced after the first four years (9,26).As 66% of current edges are older than this (6), most will have incurred these losses.”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    When considering all four main drivers, and all possible overlaps between them, the estimate of total degraded area increases to 2,542,593 km 2 , or 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests.

    “That said, when considering all the four main drivers, and all possible overlaps between them, the estimate of total degraded area increases to 2,542,593 km 2 , or 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: For purposes of accounting for overlaps between timber extraction and other disturbances, logged forests are systematically distributed within the 27-km resolution grid-cell used for timber extraction.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Amazonian fires reduce air quality many thousands of kilometers from the source, while soot deposits are accelerating glacier melt in the Andes.

    “Amazonian fires also reduce air quality many thousands of kilometers from the source (68), while soot deposits are accelerating glacier melt in the Andes (69).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Disturbance disrupts multi-trophic processes such as pollination, decomposition, seed dispersal and herbivory, and drives sub-lethal changes in the morphology or physiology of birds and dung beetles.

    “Disturbance also disrupts multi-trophic processes such as pollination, decomposition, seed dispersal and herbivory (73), and drives sub-lethal changes in the morphology or physiology of birds (74) and dung beetles (70).”
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    • cites [70]

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    When forests are burned, the recovery of carbon stocks from tree recruitment and growth is offset by high rates of ongoing tree mortality, such that burned forest can be a net source of carbon emissions for up to 7 years after the fire, and hold c. 25% less carbon after 30 years.

    “When forests are burned, the recovery of carbon stocks from tree recruitment and growth is offset by high rates of ongoing tree mortality (23,57,61), such that burned forest can be a net source of carbon emissions for up to 7 years after the fire, and hold c. 25% less carbon after 30 years (46,56,61).”
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    • cites [61]

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    This corresponds to 112% of the total area deforested during the same period (325,975 km 2 ), and is within the same magnitude of a previous estimate of degradation in the Brazilian Amazon of 337,427 km 2 in the 1992-2014 period.

    “This corresponds to 112% of the total area deforested during this same period (325,975 km 2 ) (15, 49, 50), and is within the same magnitude of a previous estimate of degradation in the Brazilian Amazon of 337,427 km 2 in the 1992-2014 period (12).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [15]

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    • cites [49]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [50]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: For purposes of accounting for overlaps between timber extraction and other disturbances, logged forests are systematically distributed within the 27-km resolution grid-cell used for timber extraction.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Fires, timber extraction and edge effects reduce the number of forest species and species with the highest conservation values.

    “Fires, timber extraction and edge effects reduce the number of forest species (7, 70) and species with the highest conservation values (7).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Some taxa are resilient to low-intensity disturbance and contribute to forest regeneration where hunting is controlled and there is connectivity with undisturbed forests.

    “Some of these taxa are resilient to low-intensity disturbance (78) and contribute to forest regeneration where hunting is controlled and there is connectivity with undisturbed forests (79).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Forest edges generate 5% less evapotranspiration than forest interiors, and degraded forests provide between 2% to 34% less ET than intact forests in normal dry seasons, with stronger reductions in southern drier sites.

    “Forest edges generate 5% less evapotranspiration (ET) than forest interiors (66), and degraded forests provide between 2% to 34% less ET than intact forests in normal dry seasons, with stronger reductions in southern drier sites (35).”
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    • cites [35]

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Recovery can be further impeded where forests have been affected by previous disturbances, or where succession is dominated by lianas, palms, bamboos or invasive grasses.

    “Recovery can be further impeded where forests have been affected by previous disturbances (73), or where succession is dominated by lianas, palms, bamboos or invasive grasses (46,76).”
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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The cumulative impact of multiple droughts on aboveground carbon is not known but could be important given that over one-third of the drought-affected area was affected by two (26%) or more (10%) events in an 18-year period.

    “The cumulative impact of multiple droughts on aboveground carbon is not known but could be important given that over onethird of the drought-affected area was affected by two (26%) or more (10%) events in an 18year period (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Within the forests themselves, tree mortality from forest fires, timber extraction and edge effects increase temperatures and lower the humidity of the understory.

    “Within the forests themselves, tree mortality from forest fires, timber extraction and edge effects increase temperatures and lower the humidity of the understory (26,29,35,51).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Even when these factors are controlled, carbon losses within 120 m of an edge range from 23% to 35% in the first four years after the edge formation, with the severity potentially related to exposure to fire.

    “Even when these factors are controlled, the impacts vary substantially: carbon losses within 120 m of an edge range from 23% to 35% in the first four years after the edge formation (6, 26), with the severity potentially related to exposure to fire (9) (Fig. 3).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    69% of the burned area shown in Fig. 2 has been affected by a single understory forest fire, reducing aboveground carbon stocks by 13% to 50%.

    “Sixty-nine percent of the burned area shown in Fig. 2 has been affected by a single understory forest fire, reducing aboveground carbon stocks by 13% to 50% (17, 55, 56) (Fig. 3).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The impacts of timber extraction are far greater in forests that have suffered multiple extraction events, and edge effects are greater when forests are exposed to multiple edges.

    “Similarly, the impacts of timber extraction are far greater in forests that have suffered multiple extraction events (54), and edge effects are greater when forests are exposed to multiple edges (63).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Studies estimate annual emissions of between 0.05 and 0.2 PgC yr -1 for different combinations of disturbances, comparable to deforestation emission estimates of 0.06 to 0.21 PgC yr -1 .

    “Studies that have attempted this using remote sensing, or mixing field assessments with estimates of extent, estimate annual emissions of between 0.05 and 0.2 PgC yr -1 for a different combination of disturbances (10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16), which are comparable to deforestation emission estimates of 0.06 to 0.21 PgC yr -1 (50, 64).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Fauna can support post-disturbance forest recovery, with birds, terrestrial ungulates and primates all helping disperse seeds.

    “Finally, fauna can support post-disturbance forest recovery, with birds, terrestrial ungulates and primates all helping disperse seeds (77).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    In fragmented landscapes, patch area is an important determinant of species persistence; conserving the full suite of forest birds requires maintaining large patches (e.g., >10,000 ha) of good-condition forest.

    “In fragmented landscapes, patch area is an important determinant of species persistence; conserving the full suite of forest birds requires maintaining large patches (e.g., >10,000 ha) of good-condition forest (71).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Co-occurring disturbances can amplify effects, with windstorms resulting in much higher biomass losses in thrice-burned forest (31%) than in unburned forests (15%).

    “Co-occurring disturbances can also amplify effects, with windstorms resulting in much higher biomass losses in thrice-burned forest (31%) than in unburned forests (15%) (30).”
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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Forest degradation can impact fish abundance in streams, rivers and floodplains, with implications for the nutritional diversity and food security of local communities.

    “Forest degradation can impact fish abundance in streams, rivers and floodplains, with implications for the nutritional diversity and food security of local communities (72).”
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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    The current 2001-2018 spatial distribution of the four main drivers of forest degradation in the Amazon forest excludes deforestation and savanna areas.

    “Current (2001-2018) spatial distribution of the four main drivers of forest degradation in the Amazon forest, excluding deforestation and savanna areas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Projected 2050 annual carbon emissions are 0.06 PgC yr-1 in the GOV scenario and 0.42 PgC yr-1 in the BAU scenario.

    “Projected 2050 annual carbon emissions are 0.06 PgC yr -1 in the GOV scenario and 0.42 PgC yr -1 in the BAU scenario”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the 2050 GOV scenario, degraded forest due to all four disturbances, discounting overlap, is 2,406,609 km2, or 51.2% of remaining forest, with 2.09 PgC emissions.

    “Degraded forest (discounting overlap) due to all 4 disturbances 2,406,609 51.2 2.09 2,369,497 72.8 12.89”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

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    Findingcitation

    Reductions in diversity of host species undermines the dilution effect, increasing vector-borne diseases (e.g., Chagas disease).

    “Reductions in diversity of host species undermines the 'dilution effect' (where low-quality host abundance buffers parasite dispersal), increasing vector-borne diseases (e.g., Chagas disease) (92).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [92]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The dense understory of fire-affected forests makes hunting harder and reduces availability of preferred game species.

    “The dense understory of fire-affected forests makes hunting harder (mobility in Fig. 4B) and reduce availability of preferred game species (93).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [93]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the 2050 BAU scenario, degraded forest due to all four disturbances, discounting overlap, is 2,369,497 km2, or 72.8% of remaining forest, with 12.89 PgC emissions.

    “Degraded forest (discounting overlap) due to all 4 disturbances 2,406,609 51.2 2.09 2,369,497 72.8 12.89”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Some material changes extend beyond local communities, as reductions in forest resources can affect peri-urban households that maintain strong links with forests, compounding existing vulnerabilities associated with structural marginalization.

    “Some of the material changes extend beyond local communities, as reductions in forest resources can affect peri-urban households that maintain strong links with forests (89), compounding existing vulnerabilities associated with structural marginalization (94).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [89]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [94]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The underlying drivers of disturbance generate mainly material benefits, while the resulting forest degradation generates burdens that are unevenly distributed among stakeholders and across scales.

    “The underlying drivers of disturbance generate mainly material benefits, while (B) the resulting forest degradation generates burdens that are unevenly distributed among stakeholders and across scales.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the 2050 GOV scenario, deforestation in 2019-2050 is 154,781 km2 with -2.01 PgC emissions.

    “Deforestation in the 2019-2050 period 154,781 -2.01 1,391,816 -17.52”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Total remaining Amazon forest area in 2050 is 4,696,681 km2 in the GOV scenario and 3,256,392 km2 in the BAU scenario.

    “Total remaining Amazon forest area in 2050 4,696,681 100.0 -3,256,392 100.0 -”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In 2001-2018, total degraded forest area due to all four disturbances, discounting overlap, was 2,542,593 km2, or 38.1% of Amazonian forest.

    “Degraded forest area (discounting overlap) due to all 4 disturbances 2,542,593 100.0 38.1”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In 2001-2018, edge effects affected 188,531 km2, or 2.8% of Amazonian forest.

    “Edge effects 188,531 7.4 2.8”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The degradation-to-deforestation ratio for carbon emissions remains high in the GOV scenario (1.04) and in the BAU scenario (0.74).

    “the degradation-todeforestation ratio for carbon emissions remains high both in a scenario where illegal deforestation is stopped after 2030 (GOV: 1.04) and in the BAU scenario, which extrapolates the land-use dynamics of the early 2000s (BAU: 0.74).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the 2050 BAU scenario, deforestation in 2019-2050 is 1,391,816 km2 with -17.52 PgC emissions.

    “Deforestation in the 2019-2050 period 154,781 -2.01 1,391,816 -17.52”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    These economic benefits tend to be short term, poorly negotiated, disproportionately small, and do not compensate for the local damages that forest degradation inflicts.

    “However, these economic benefits tend to be short term (4), poorly negotiated, disproportionately small, and do not compensate for the local damages that forest degradation inflicts (89,90).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [4]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [89]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [90]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    At the landscape scale, deforestation or degradation-related disturbances cause warming and alter precipitation, potentially increasing drought.

    “At the landscape scale, deforestation or degradation-related disturbances cause warming and alter precipitation, potentially increasing drought (8,35).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [8]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [35]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    These disturbances often co-occur and repeat multiple times, and greatly increase the impact on forest condition and biodiversity.

    “These disturbances often co-occur and repeat multiple times, and greatly increase the impact on forest condition and biodiversity (7).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [7]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A recent study of the Amazon showed that only 14% of degraded forests were later deforested over a period of 22 years, suggesting that degradation and deforestation are partially independent processes.

    “A recent study of the Amazon showed that only 14% of degraded forests were later deforested over a period of 22 years (11), suggesting that these are partially independent processes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [11]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    At the global scale, carbon dioxide emissions from forest disturbance are major contributors to climate change, driving extreme droughts that cause or amplify degradation.

    “At the global scale, carbon dioxide emissions from forest disturbance are major contributors to climate change, driving extreme droughts that cause or amplify degradation (24,36).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [24]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [36]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forest fires cause degradation because Amazonian species have little or no evolutionary adaptations to fire.

    “Forest fires include all fires in standing forests (29); these cause degradation as Amazonian species have little or no evolutionary adaptations to fire.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [29]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The first Brazilian Amazon-wide study estimated a rate of 11,537 km 2 y -1 between 1999 and 2002, which coincides with a period of high deforestation rates in the region.

    “The first Brazilian Amazon-wide study estimated a rate of 11,537 km 2 y -1 between 1999 and 2002 (27), which coincides with a period of high deforestation rates in the region.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The four disturbances focused on can all be studied across the Amazon using available satellite data and image processing methods, and have the best quantified links with forest structure and carbon stocks.

    “However, the four disturbances we focus on can all be studied across the Amazon using available satellite data and image processing methods, and have the best quantified links with forest structure and carbon stocks.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Some timber extraction occurs in remote regions far from the deforestation frontier; fires can extend deep into forested areas in drought years; and droughts are widespread across the basin.

    “Some timber extraction occurs in remote regions, far from the deforestation frontier; fires can extend deep into forested areas in drought years (25); and droughts are widespread across the basin (22,33).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [25]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [22]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [33]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Timber extraction is driven by market demand but is facilitated by corruption and weak governance.

    “Timber extraction, for instance, is driven by market demand, but is facilitated by corruption and weak governance (34); forest fires are often caused by agricultural practices but can be exacerbated by extreme droughts (23).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [34]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Approximately 50% or more of the timber extraction in the Amazon is illegal, meaning that this does not appear in either the national census or in the product used.

    “Estimates suggest that approximately 50% (or even more) of the timber extraction in the Amazon is illegal (48), meaning that this does not appear in either the national census or in the product used here.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [48]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forest fires are often caused by agricultural practices but can be exacerbated by extreme droughts.

    “Timber extraction, for instance, is driven by market demand, but is facilitated by corruption and weak governance (34); forest fires are often caused by agricultural practices but can be exacerbated by extreme droughts (23).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [23]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The underlying drivers of disturbances generate material benefits for a restricted group of regional and global actors, while the burdens permeate across a broad range of scales and social groups ranging from nearby forest-dwellers to urban residents of Andean countries.

    “The underlying drivers of disturbances (e.g.agricultural expansion or demand for timber) generate material benefits for a restricted group of regional and global actors, while the burdens permeate across a broad range of scales and social groups ranging from nearby forest-dwellers to urban residents of Andean countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [80]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A small fraction of large-scale landholders account for most forest loss, contributing to degradation via edge-creation through deforestation, escaped pasture renewal fires, reduced regional rainfall, and global climate change via carbon emissions.

    “For example, a small fraction of (large-scale) landholders account for most forest loss (83), contributing to degradation via edge-creation through deforestation, escaped pasture renewal fires (32), reduced regional rainfall (8), and ultimately contributing to global climate change itself via carbon emissions (84).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [83]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [32]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [8]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Smaller effects have been recorded in drier Amazonian regions where trees are protected by thicker bark and in less-seasonal regions where fire intensity may be limited by high fuel moisture content.

    “Smaller effects have been recorded in drier Amazonian regions (45) where trees are protected by thicker bark (58) and in less-seasonal regions where fire intensity may be limited by high fuel moisture content (55).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [45]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [58]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [55]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Edge effects may also vary over much larger spatial scales and could be less severe in forests on the richer soils of western Amazonia.

    “Edge effects may also vary over much larger spatial scales and could be less severe in forests on the richer soils of western Amazonia (59).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [59]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forest loss is strongly associated with commodity production with material benefits accruing to wealthy regional and international actors.

    “Forest loss is strongly associated with commodity production with material benefits accruing to wealthy regional and international actors (85).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [85]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Tree mortality following understory fires varies spatially: the highest levels of tree mortality and the greatest biomass losses have been recorded in the Brazilian state of Pará.

    “Tree mortality following understory fires varies spatially: the highest levels of tree mortality and the greatest biomass losses have been recorded in the Brazilian state of Pará (29, 57).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [29]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [57]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    All recent studies consistently agree that the extent of degraded forest is growing, and the total area is either equal to or greater than the Amazon's deforested area.

    “All recent studies, however, consistently agree that the extent of degraded forest is growing, and the total area is either equal to or greater than the Amazon's deforested area (10)(11)(12).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [10]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [11]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [12]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Comparisons remain confounded by the different spatial and temporal scales of assessments and the different types of disturbance that are being assessed; studies inferring degradation from canopy openness are likely to miss some degradation from edges or low-intensity logging, while airborne air sampling cannot accurately separate emissions from deforestation and degradation.

    “Yet comparisons remain confounded by the different spatial and temporal scales of assessments and the different types of disturbance that are being assessedstudies inferring degradation from canopy openness are likely to miss some of the degradation resulting from edges or low-intensity logging, while airborne air sampling is unable to accurately separate emissions from deforestation and degr”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The flow of benefits and burdens are misaligned; benefits often accrue to external stakeholders while burdens are concentrated locally, creating socioecological injustices.

    “Crucially, the flow of benefits (which are related to proximate drivers of forest degradation) and burdens (which are related to degradation outcomes) are misaligned.Benefits often accrue to external stakeholders while burdens are concentrated locally, creating socioecological injustices (Fig. 4B).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Fig. 4B

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Not all the extreme droughts observed in the Amazon in the analyzed 2001-2018 period have been unequivocally attributed to human-induced climate change.

    “Not all the extreme droughts observed in the Amazon in the analyzed 2001-2018 period have been unequivocally attributed to human-induced climate change (22).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [22]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The severity of edge effects varies in relation to the distance to the forest edge, with severity decreasing from the edge to the interior, and over time, with most losses occurring within 5 years of edge formation.

    “The severity of edge effects varies in relation to the distance to the forest edge, with severity decreasing from the edge to the interior, and over time, with most losses occurring within 5years of edge formation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [6]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [26]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [9]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forest degradation precludes discovery of new pharmaceutical, nutritional and biobased products and can precipitate the emergence of pandemics with global consequences for health, economies and well-being.

    “Forest degradation precludes discovery of new pharmaceutical, nutritional and biobased products and can precipitate the emergence of pandemics with global consequences for health, economies and well-being (103, 104).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [103]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [104]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The relationship between ecosystem degradation and regional public health has the potential to be important.

    “Further, the relationship between ecosystem degradation and regional public health has the potential to be important (105).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [105]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Fire causes material damage to the timber sector affecting commercially unexplored forests and other losses to potential revenue and the regional economy, for example through airport closures.

    “Fire also causes material damage to the timber sector affecting commercially unexplored forests (17, 102), and other losses to potential revenue and to the region's economy (e.g., through airport closures) (97).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [17]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [102]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [97]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Loss of ecosystem services due to extreme climate change in the Amazon may induce regional economy losses of US$ 7.7 trillion over 30 years.

    “Estimates suggest that the loss of ecosystem services due to extreme climate change in the Amazon may induce regional economy losses of US$ 7.7 trillion in a period of 30 years (18), and this excludes the significant intangible relational and quality-of-life impacts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [18]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Studies assessing proximate causes focused on fire occurrence driven by deforestation and climate change, fire intensity driven by climate change, edge effects due to forest fragmentation, or mixed causes.

    “Studies assessing the proximate causes (Fig. 2) focused on fire occurrence driven by deforestation and climate change (45, 110), fire intensity driven by climate change (112), edge effects due to forest fragmentation (111), or mixed causes (113).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [45]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [110]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [112]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [111]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The CRU temperature and precipitation datasets have correlations of 0.38 and 0.56, respectively, with their cross-validation data.

    “The CRU temperature and precipitation datasets have correlations of 0.38 and 0.56, respectively with their cross-validation data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    At local scales, small-holder farmers contribute to forest degradation, either directly through small-scale timber extraction or hunting, or indirectly via agricultural fires that may escape into forests.

    “At local scales, small-holder farmers contribute to forest degradation, either directly through small-scale timber extraction or hunting, or indirectly via agricultural fires that may escape into forests.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Roads promote degradation as well as deforestation.

    “roads promote degradation as well as deforestation (52)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [52]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Forest degradation can erode communal sites, impair place attachments, and impact interactions with the forest and ways of knowing and using its resources.

    “For example, forest degradation can erode communal sites, impair place attachments, impact interactions with the forest and ways of knowing and of using its resources.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The 2019-2050 estimated timber extraction percentage that fell within protected areas was not taken into account.

    “The 2019-2050 estimated timber extraction percentage that fell within protected areas was not taken into account.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Important uncertainties remain regarding quantification of the area affected by different disturbances, their longer-term impacts, and how disturbance severity is modified by cooccurrence, repeated events or changes in management practices.

    “Although our understanding of degradation has improved markedly, important uncertainties remain regarding the quantification of the area affected by the different disturbances, their longer-term impacts, and how disturbance severity is modified by cooccurrence, repeated events or changes in management practices”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Carbon dioxide emissions from degradation can overwhelm those from deforestation and the carbon uptake from regeneration.

    “carbon dioxide emissions from degradation can overwhelm those from deforestation (45, 111), and the carbon uptake from regeneration (114).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [45]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [111]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [114]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation is a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss and a driver of several forms of degradation.

    “deforestation is itself a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss and a driver of several forms of degradation”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [120]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Impacts of Amazon degradation extend to regions surrounding the Amazon, with implications for material gains and revenue within the agriculture sector.

    “These impacts extend to regions surrounding the Amazon, with implications for material gains and revenue within the agriculture sector (84).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [84]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Only five studies have projected future Amazon forest degradation in a spatially-explicit way, covering the entire Amazon biome or focusing on the Colombian, Brazilian or southern Brazilian Amazon.

    “Only five studies have projected future Amazon forest degradation in a spatially-explicit way, either covering the entire Amazon biome (110) or focusing on the Colombian (111), Brazilian (112, 113) or southern Brazilian Amazon (45).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [110]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [111]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [112]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [113]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Smoke from fires causes public-health burdens including premature deaths and school closures, potentially reducing the learning lifetime of local children.

    “Public-health burdens accrue from the smoke associated with fires and include premature deaths and school closures (68,97,98), potentially reducing the learning lifetime of local children (public education in Fig. 4B).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [68]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [97]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [98]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Degradation can occur independently from deforestation; control of deforestation can reduce fire activity only under weak to moderate climate change scenarios.

    “degradation can occur independently from deforestation [e.g., control of deforestation can reduce fire activity, but only under weak to moderate climate change scenarios (110)]”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [110]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The burned area product MCD64A1 has been assessed previously and local validations in the Amazon showed suitable performance.

    “The quality of the burned area product (MCD64A1) has been assessed previously in other studies, and local validations in the Amazon showed a suitable performance for this product.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Incidence of violence rises when land conflicts associated with forest degradation occur and within temporary settlements created for logging operations.

    “Incidence of violence rises when land conflicts associated with forest degradation occur (99), and within temporary settlements created for logging operations (100).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [99]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [100]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

87 of 87

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For purposes of accounting for overlaps between timber extraction and other disturbances, logged forests are systematically distributed within the 27-km resolution grid-cell used for timber extraction.

    “Here, we assumed a systematic distribution of logged forests within the gridcell to account for the timber extraction overlaps with other drivers, as logged forests can be more flammable than undisturbed forests (51), and the extraction of timber is often associated with edges (52).”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In the absence of information on the impacts of repeated drought, cumulative values from individual events were used, assuming that the minimum value could remain constant even with multiple droughts and the maximum value could double in the case of a total absence of post-drought recovery.

    “in the absence of information on the impacts of repeated drought, we simply used cumulative values from individual events, assuming that, due to forest recovery, the minimum value could remain constant even in the event of multiple droughts, while the maximum value could double in the case of a total absence of post-drought recovery.”
2 of 2

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Roads carving through the forest are sources of illegal activities such as logging and burning, which increase forest flammability.

    “For instance, roads carving through the forest are well-known sources of illegal activities, such as logging and burning, which increase forest flammability38,39.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [39]

    In “Projecting Amazon forest degradation” (page unavailable), the paper says roads promote degradation and deforestation. “Spatial extent and severity” says logged forests can be more flammable than undisturbed forests, and elsewhere notes that some timber extraction is illegal. It does not establish the more specific claim that roads are sources of illegal logging and burning, or that those road-linked activities increase flammability. (LLM, conf=0.85)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Road networks facilitate illegal activities, promoting more deforestation, logging and fire spread throughout the core of the Amazon forest.

    “Road networks (Fig. 1d) facilitate illegal activities, promoting more deforestation, logging and fire spread throughout the core of the Amazon forest38,39.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [39]

    The 'Projecting Amazon forest degradation' section says that roads promote degradation and deforestation. The copy does not establish the more specific chain that road networks facilitate illegal activities and thereby promote logging and fire spread throughout the forest core. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Among the remaining old-growth forests, at least 38% have been degraded by land use disturbances and repeated extreme droughts.

    “Among the remaining old-growth forests, at least 38% have been degraded by land use disturbances and repeated extreme droughts39, with impacts on moisture recycling that are still uncertain.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [39]

    The Extended summary and Spatial extent and severity section estimate that 38% of remaining Amazonian forests were affected by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, or extreme drought during 2001–2018 (page not provided). But the estimate includes single drought events, not just repeated ones: Changes in carbon stocks and basin-wide emissions says only about one-third of drought-affected area experienced multiple droughts. The paper describes the denominator as remaining Amazonian forest, rather than specifically old-growth forest. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • If considering also the impacts from repeated extreme drought events in the past decades, 38% of the Amazon could be degraded.

    “Within the remaining Amazon forest area, 17% has been degraded by human disturbances38, such as logging, edge effects and understory fires, but if we consider also the impacts from repeated extreme drought events in the past decades, 38% of the Amazon could be degraded39.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [39]

  • An additional 38% of the forest biome has been damaged by extreme droughts, fires, logging and edge effects.

    “An additional 38% of the forest biome has been damaged by extreme droughts, fires, logging and edge effects38,39.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [39]

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 5

  1. J. A. Parrotta S. Mansourian C. Wildburger T. Gardner V. Kapos W. A. Kurz C. L. McDermott B. B. N. Strassburg I. D. Thompson B. Vira “Conclusions” in Understanding relationships between biodiversity carbon forests and people: The key to achieving REDD+ objectives J. A. Parrotta C. Wildburger S. Mansourian Eds. (IUFRO Vienna 2012) pp. 139–146.
  2. FAO “Terms and definitions” in Global Forest Resources Assessment FAO Ed. (FAO Rome 2020) pp. 1–26.
  3. M. Lentini R. Palmieri L. Sobral “Atividade florestal madeireira no norte do Pará: do projeto Jari ao combate à ilegalidade e ao advento das concessões florestais” in Florestas de Valor. Desenvolvimento territorial e sustentabilidade: a experiência do IMAFLORA no Norte do Pará R. Palmieri Ed. (IMAFLORA Belém 2020) pp. 64–93.
  4. S. L. Francelino-Gonçalves-Dias P. Mendonça “Deforestation and Slave Labour in the Amazon: Contesting the sustainability of the cattle industry” in 7th International Critical Management Studies (CMS) Conference (Naples 2011).
  5. S. C. das C. Xavier, A. L. R. Roque, V. dos S. Lima, K. J. L. Monteiro, J. C. R. Otaviano, L. F. C. Ferreira da Silva, A. M. Jansen, Lower Richness of Small Wild Mammal Species and Chagas Disease Risk. PLOS Negl. Trop. Dis. 6, e1647 (2012).

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Authors
Lapola, D. M., Pinho, P., Barlow, J., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Berenguer, E., Carmenta, R., Liddy, H. M., Seixas, H., Silva, C. V. J., Silva-Junior, C. H. L., Alencar, A. A. C., Anderson, L. O., Armenteras, D., Brovkin, V., Calders, K., Chambers, J., Chini, L., Costa, M. H., Faria, B. L., Fearnside, P. M., Ferreira, J., Gatti, L., Gutierrez-Velez, V. H., Han, Z., Hibbard, K., Koven, C., Lawrence, P., Pongratz, J., Portela, B. T. T., Rounsevell, M., Ruane, A. C., Schaldach, R., da Silva, S. S., von Randow, C., & Walker, W. S.
Affiliations
  • Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
  • Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (BR)
  • Lancaster University (GB)
  • University of Exeter (GB)
  • Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
  • University of East Anglia (GB)
  • Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
  • Institute of Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
  • Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (BR)
  • Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO)
  • Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
  • University of Eastern Finland (FI)
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
  • University of Maryland, College Park (US)
  • Universidade Federal de Viçosa (BR)
  • Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia do Norte de Minas Gerais (BR)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
  • Embrapa (BR)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
  • Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  • Beijing Normal University (CN)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US)
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
  • University of Kassel (DE)
  • Universidade Federal do Acre, Cruzeiro do Sul, AC, Brazil.
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.
  • Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
Corresponding author
Lapola, David M.
ORCID
Venue
Science
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published
2023-01-27
Volume
379
Issue
6630
Pages
eabp8622-eabp8622
ISSN
  • 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
  • 1095-9203
DOI
10.1126/science.abp8622
OpenAlex
W4318141566
Cited by
630
References
121
Citations by year
2026: 169 · 2025: 214 · 2024: 158 · 2023: 87 · 2022: 1
FWCI
15.45
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
other-oa
Locations
  • Science (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Ghent University Academic Bibliography (Ghent University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
  • UEF eRepo (University of Eastern Finland) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
  • Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC18K0339)
  • Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (409531/2021-9, 16/02018-2, 20/16457-3, 15/02537-7, 314416/2020-0, 2015/, 2020/08916, 314473/2020-3, 2020/15230 – 5, 2020/, 312450/2021-4, 20/15230-5, 20/08916-8)
  • Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (314473/2020-3, 2020/15230-5, 2020-3, 409531/2021-9, 2020/16457-3, 2018-5, 2016/02018-2, 314416/2020-0, 2020/08916-8, 2020/08916)
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (441573/2020-7, 314780/2020-3, 314416/2020‐0, 2020/08916-8, 2016/02018-2, 2020/08916, 441949/2018-5, 2020/15230-5, 312450/2021-4, 441949/2018, 314473/2020‐3, 309074/2021‐5, 409531/2021-9, 2020/16457-3)
  • Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
  • Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas (2020/15230-5, 312450/2021-4, 2020/08916, 314473/2020-3, 2020/08916-8)
  • Agência Espacial Brasileira (314416/2020-0)
  • Jet Propulsion Laboratory
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/S01084X/1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
Keywords
forest fires, edge effects, logging, drought, CO2 emissions, evapotranspiration, biodiversity loss, forest dwellers, deforestation, climate policy
MeSH terms
Brazil, Carbon, Conservation of Natural Resources, Biodiversity, Carbon Cycle, Rainforest

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-11-03.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-11-03.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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