The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models
Open accessAbstract
Strong future warming in some new climate models is less likely as their recent warming is inconsistent with observed trends.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 · Cited by 11,981
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 · Cited by 1,862
Self-citationImprovements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model
Lenssen, N. J. L., Schmidt, G. A., Hansen, J. E., Menne, M. J., Persin, A., Ruedy, R., & Zyss, D. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2018jd029522 · Cited by 962
Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there
Knutti, R., Masson, D., & Gettelman, A. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50256 · Cited by 918
Self-citationUse and misuse of the reduced major axis for line‐fitting
Smith, R. J. (2009) · American Journal of Physical Anthropology · doi:10.1002/ajpa.21090 · Cited by 724
Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends
Cowtan, K., & Way, R. G. (2014) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.2297 · Cited by 645
Cited by
An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J., et al. (2020) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2019rg000678 · Cited by 1,254
Self-citationHigh-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections
Beck, H. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., Lutsko, N. J., Dufour, A., Zeng, Z., Jiang, X., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., & Miralles, D. G. (2023) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-023-02549-6 · Cited by 917
Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Eyring, V., Flato, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., & Schlund, M. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 · Cited by 823
Cheng, L., von Schuckmann, K., Abraham, J. P., Trenberth, K. E., Mann, M. E., Zanna, L., England, M. H., Zika, J. D., Fasullo, J. T., Yu, Y., et al. (2022) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00345-1 · Cited by 312
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary
Meier, H. E. M., Kniebusch, M., Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., Zorita, E., Elmgren, R., Myrberg, K., Ahola, M. P., Bartosova, A., Bonsdorff, E., et al. (2022) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 · Cited by 283
Metadata
- Authors
- Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J., Lehner, F., & Knutti, R.
- Venue
- Science Advances
- Published
- 2020-03-20
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- eaaz9549-eaaz9549
- ISSN
- 2375-2548 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3010860482
- Cited by
- 727
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 38.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549
- The paper
- Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J., Lehner, F., & Knutti, R. (2020). Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
