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The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions
Abstract
We present an analysis of the current foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain over the first 2 months of the spread of the virus. The net transmission potential of the pathogen and the increasing impact of control measures are estimated over the course of the epidemic to date. These results are used to parameterize a mathematical model of disease transmission that captures the differing spatial contact patterns between farms before and after the imposition of movement restrictions. The model is used to make predictions of future incidence and to simulate the impact of additional control strategies. Hastening the slaughter of animals with suspected infection is predicted to slow the epidemic, but more drastic action, such as “ring” culling or vaccination around infection foci, is necessary for more rapid control. Culling is predicted to be more effective than vaccination.
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The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions
Keeling, M. J. (1999) · Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.1999.0716 · Cited by 798
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How Viruses Spread Among Computers and People
Lloyd, A. L., & May, R. M. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1061076 · Cited by 661
Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002–2003 epidemic
Anderson, R. M., Fraser, C., Ghani, A. C., Donnelly, C. A., Riley, S., Ferguson, N. M., Leung, G. M., Lam, T. H., & Hedley, A. J. (2004) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2004.1490 · Cited by 509
Self-citationAppropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases
Wearing, H. J., Rohani, P., & Keeling, M. J. (2005) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174 · Cited by 533
Pathogenic landscapes: Interactions between land, people, disease vectors, and their animal hosts
Lambin, E. F., Tran, A., Vanwambeke, S. O., Linard, C., & Soti, V. (2010) · International Journal of Health Geographics · doi:10.1186/1476-072x-9-54 · Cited by 438
Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes
Smith, D. L., Lucey, B., Waller, L. A., Childs, J. E., & Real, L. A. (2002) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.042400799 · Cited by 378
Metadata
- Authors
- Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A., & Anderson, R. M.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2001-05-11
- Volume
- 292
- Issue
- 5519
- Pages
- 1155-1160
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2029758788
- Cited by
- 671
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 65.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A., & Anderson, R. M. (2001). The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1061020
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
