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Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO 2 Concentrations
Abstract
Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) will offset these losses. The CO 2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO 2 ] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO 2 ] enhanced yield by ∼50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO 2 ] will fully offset losses due to climate change.
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Cited by
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Galloway, J. N., Townsend, A. R., Erisman, J. W., Bekunda, M., Cai, Z., Freney, J. R., Martinelli, L. A., Seitzinger, S. P., & Sutton, M. A. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1136674 · Cited by 6,995
Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security
Wheeler, T., & von Braun, J. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1239402 · Cited by 3,487
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0906865106 · Cited by 3,420
Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114 · Cited by 3,311
Gassman, P. W., Reyes, M. R., Green, C. H., & Arnold, J. G. (2007) · Transactions of the ASABE · doi:10.13031/2013.23637 · Cited by 3,040
Metadata
- Authors
- Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Nösberger, J., & Ort, D. R.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2006-06-30
- Volume
- 312
- Issue
- 5782
- Pages
- 1918-1921
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2127989158
- Cited by
- 1,500
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 95.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Nösberger, J., & Ort, D. R. (2006). Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO 2 Concentrations. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114722
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
