Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
Open accessAbstract
The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures within each day and across all days in the growing season. We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29 degrees C for corn, 30 degrees C for soybeans, and 32 degrees C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found when we isolate either time-series or cross-sectional variations in temperatures and yields. This suggests limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not. Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30-46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63-82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.
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Agriculture is primarily affected by climate through its impacts on productivity, crop yields, arable land, and water.
“Agriculture is primarily affected by climate through its impacts on productivity, crop yields, arable land, and water (Schlenker and Roberts 2009, Hsiang 2010, Chen et al 2024).”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Schlenker and Roberts 2009
The Abstract and Results (page numbers not provided) link climate and weather to crop yields and agricultural output, including projected yield declines under warming. The Discussion mentions land values, not changes in arable land; the paper considers precipitation and irrigation but does not establish climate impacts on water resources. Those parts of the attributed claim are unsupported by this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredTemperature impacts economic outcomes.
“Given that research has also shown that temperature impacts economic outcomes (Schlenker and Roberts, 2009; Houser et al., 2015; Heal and Park, 2016; Deryugina and Hsiang, 2017)”
From Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes (2019) · cites this paper as Schlenker and Roberts, 2009
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSchlenker and Roberts (2009) described that maize yield was increased at an optimum temperature of 29 °C but a further increase in temperature hampered the yield of maize.
“Schlenker and Roberts (2009) described that maize yield was increased at an optimum temperature of 29 °C but a further increase in temperature hampered the yield of maize [53].”
From Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review (2019) · cites this paper as [53]
Schlenker and Roberts (2009) revealed that the threshold temperature for soybean is 30 °C; a rise to the optimum level increased soybean yield but after that level further rise in temperature reduced the yield abruptly.
“Schlenker and Roberts (2009) revealed that the threshold temperature for soybean is 30 °C; a rise in temperature to the optimum level increased soybean yield but after that level, further rise in temperature reduced the yield abruptly [53].”
From Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review (2019) · cites this paper as [53]
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- Authors
- Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- North Carolina State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Schlenker, Wolfram
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2009-09-15
- Volume
- 106
- Issue
- 37
- Pages
- 15594-15598
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2747166
- OpenAlex
- W2161994757
- Cited by
- 3,420
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 279 · 2025: 297 · 2024: 282 · 2023: 303 · 2022: 295 · 2021: 317 · 2020: 250 · 2019: 217 · 2018: 212 · 2017: 187 · 2016: 173 · 2015: 163 · 2014: 136 · 2013: 116 · 2012: 91
- FWCI
- 66.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Harvard University
- Arizona State University
- North Carolina State University
- University of Wyoming
- Dartmouth College
- Georgia State University
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- crop yield, climate change impacts, temperature effects on agriculture, maize, soybean, cotton, nonlinear temperature response, yield threshold, climate change projections, United States agriculture, food security
- MeSH terms
- Zea mays, Gossypium, Models, Biological, Glycine max, Temperature, United States, Weather, Databases, Factual, Nonlinear Dynamics, Greenhouse Effect, Crops, Agricultural
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Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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