Cited by 1,375Species Distribution and Climate ChangeEcology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesBotany and Plant Ecology Studies

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Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics

Colwell, Robert K., Brehm, Gunnar, Cardelús, Catherine L., Gilman, Alex C., Longino, John T.·2008·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.1162547

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Abstract

Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.

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Supported by the Organization for Tropical Studies; the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) project of Conservation International; University of Connecticut (R.K.C. and C.L.C.); UCLA (A.C.G.); U.S. NSF (DEB-0072702: R.K.C. G.B. and J.T.L.; DEB-0640015: J.T.L.; DEB-0639979: R.K.C.; Research Fellowship and Dissertation Improvement Grant: C.L.C.); Sigma Phi Explorer's Club and Steven Vavra Plant Systematics Fund (A.C.G.); and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (BR 2280/1-1: G.B.). We thank M. B. Bush R. L. Chazdon D. A. Clark R. R. Dunn K. M. Kuhn C. Rahbek T. F. L. V. B. Rangel M. R. Silman and our peer reviewers for comments.

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Authors: Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelús, C. L., Gilman, A. C., & Longino, J. T.
Affiliations: University of Connecticut (US)
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.
ORCID: Colwell, Robert K.
Brehm, Gunnar
Gilman, Alex C.
Longino, John T.
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2008-10-10
Volume: 322
Issue: 5899
Pages: 258-261
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1162547
OpenAlex: W2103209538
Cited by: 1,375
References: 30
Citations by year: 2026: 64 · 2025: 61 · 2024: 88 · 2023: 72 · 2022: 75 · 2021: 88 · 2020: 124 · 2019: 106 · 2018: 65 · 2017: 66 · 2016: 83 · 2015: 85 · 2014: 65 · 2013: 86 · 2012: 79
FWCI: 29.64
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Smithsonian Digital Repository (Smithsonian Institution) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
Keywords: global warming, altitudinal range shift, tropical plants, tropical insects, latitudinal temperature gradient, species range projections, Costa Rica
MeSH terms: Acclimatization, Altitude, Animals, Ants, Costa Rica, Demography, Geography, Insecta, Moths, Plants, Population Dynamics, Temperature, Tropical Climate, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem, Rubiaceae, Animal Migration, Biodiversity

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Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics

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