Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change
Abstract
Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
If changes to physiological functions are substantial, variation in species' abundances can translate into changes in productivity, phenology, and community composition, hence interspecific relationships and ecosystem functions.
“If changes to physiological functions are substantial, variation in species' abundances can translate into changes in productivity, phenology, and community composition, hence interspecific relationships and ecosystem functions [28].”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [28]
Cites
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., et al. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04095 · Cited by 4,590 · see citing works
Bale, J. S., Masters, G. J., Hodkinson, I. D., Awmack, C., Bezemer, T. M., Brown, V. K., Butterfield, J., Buse, A., Coulson, J. C., Farrar, J., et al. (2002) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00451.x · Cited by 2,775 · see citing works
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming
Alan Pounds, J., Bustamante, M. R., Coloma, L. A., Consuegra, J. A., Fogden, M. P. L., Foster, P. N., La Marca, E., Masters, K. L., Merino-Viteri, A., Puschendorf, R., et al. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04246 · Cited by 1,960 · see citing works
Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic
Sturm, M., Racine, C., & Tape, K. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35079180 · Cited by 1,349 · see citing works
Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes
Briffa, K. R., Schweingruber, F. H., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., Shiyatov, S. G., & Vaganov, E. A. (1998) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35596 · Cited by 815 · see citing works
Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climate change
Lindgren, E., & Gustafson, R. (2001) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(00)05250-8 · Cited by 387 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (., et al. (2010) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001 · Cited by 7,763 · see citing works
Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges for freshwater biodiversity
Reid, A. J., Carlson, A. K., Creed, I. F., Eliason, E. J., Gell, P. A., Johnson, P. T. J., Kidd, K. A., MacCormack, T. J., Olden, J. D., Ormerod, S. J., et al. (2019) · Biological Reviews · doi:10.1111/brv.12480 · Cited by 3,645 · see citing works
Status and Ecological Effects of the World’s Largest Carnivores
Ripple, W. J., Estes, J. A., Beschta, R. L., Wilmers, C. C., Ritchie, E. G., Hebblewhite, M., Berger, J., Elmhagen, B., Letnic, M., Nelson, M. P., et al. (2014) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1241484 · Cited by 3,667 · see citing works
Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems
Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Emmett Duffy, J., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., Galindo, H. M., Grebmeier, J. M., Hollowed, A. B., Knowlton, N., et al. (2012) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 · Cited by 3,014 · see citing works
The art of modelling range-shifting species: <i>The art of modelling range-shifting species</i>
Elith, J., Kearney, M., & Phillips, S. (2010) · Methods in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1111/j.2041-210x.2010.00036.x · Cited by 2,813 · see citing works
Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere
Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., Getz, W. M., Harte, J., Hastings, A., Marquet, P. A., et al. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11018 · Cited by 1,966 · see citing works
Assemblage Time Series Reveal Biodiversity Change but Not Systematic Loss
Dornelas, M., Gotelli, N. J., McGill, B., Shimadzu, H., Moyes, F., Sievers, C., & Magurran, A. E. (2014) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1248484 · Cited by 1,412 · see citing works
Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics
Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelús, C. L., Gilman, A. C., & Longino, J. T. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1162547 · Cited by 1,375 · see citing works
Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2009) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x · Cited by 1,626 · see citing works
“However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far.”
BackgroundWhy tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming
Huey, R. B., Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Vitt, L. J., Hertz, P. E., Álvarez Pérez, H. J., & Garland, T. (2009) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.1957 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
Interactive effects of habitat modification and species invasion on native species decline
DIDHAM, R., TYLIANAKIS, J., GEMMELL, N., RAND, T., & EWERS, R. (2007) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2007.07.001 · Cited by 930 · see citing works
Global biodiversity change: The bad, the good, and the unknown
Pereira, H. M., Navarro, L. M., & Martins, I. S. (2012) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-042911-093511 · Cited by 777 · see citing works
Jackson, S. T., & Sax, D. F. (2010) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.001 · Cited by 717 · see citing works
Smith, M. D., Knapp, A. K., & Collins, S. L. (2009) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/08-1815.1 · Cited by 602 · see citing works
Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific top predators in a changing climate
Hazen, E. L., Jorgensen, S., Rykaczewski, R. R., Bograd, S. J., Foley, D. G., Jonsen, I. D., Shaffer, S. A., Dunne, J. P., Costa, D. P., Crowder, L. B., et al. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1686 · Cited by 499 · see citing works
Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems
Bakun, A., Black, B. A., Bograd, S. J., García-Reyes, M., Miller, A. J., Rykaczewski, R. R., & Sydeman, W. J. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4 · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Direct impacts of recent climate warming on insect populations
ROBINET, C., & ROQUES, A. (2010) · Integrative Zoology · doi:10.1111/j.1749-4877.2010.00196.x · Cited by 438 · see citing works
Species’ traits influenced their response to recent climate change
Pacifici, M., Visconti, P., Butchart, S. H. M., Watson, J. E. M., Cassola, F. M., & Rondinini, C. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3223 · Cited by 427 · see citing works
Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity
Forister, M. L., McCall, A. C., Sanders, N. J., Fordyce, J. A., Thorne, J. H., O’Brien, J., Waetjen, D. P., & Shapiro, A. M. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0909686107 · Cited by 373 · see citing works
Genetic erosion impedes adaptive responses to stressful environments
Bijlsma, R., & Loeschcke, V. (2012) · Evolutionary Applications · doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2011.00214.x · Cited by 345 · see citing works
How will global climate change affect parasite-host assemblages?
Brooks, D. R., & Hoberg, E. P. (2007) · Trends in Parasitology · doi:10.1016/j.pt.2007.08.016 · Cited by 338 · see citing works
García-Robledo, C., Kuprewicz, E. K., Staines, C. L., Erwin, T. L., & Kress, W. J. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1507681113 · Cited by 306 · see citing works
Agosta, S. J., Janz, N., & Brooks, D. R. (2010) · Zoologia (Curitiba) · doi:10.1590/s1984-46702010000200001 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Genetic diversity loss in the Anthropocene
Exposito-Alonso, M., Booker, T. R., Czech, L., Gillespie, L., Hateley, S., Kyriazis, C. C., Lang, P. L. M., Leventhal, L., Nogues-Bravo, D., Pagowski, V., et al. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn5642 · Cited by 288 · see citing works
An ethnobotanical survey of indigenous medicinal plants in Hafizabad district, Punjab-Pakistan
Umair, M., Altaf, M., & Abbasi, A. M. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0177912 · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Megafauna biomass tradeoff as a driver of Quaternary and future extinctions
Barnosky, A. D. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0801918105 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
Diamond, S. E., Sorger, D. M., Hulcr, J., Pelini, S. L., Toro, I. D., Hirsch, C., Oberg, E., & Dunn, R. R. (2012) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02542.x · Cited by 259 · see citing works
Fox, R., Oliver, T. H., Harrower, C., Parsons, M. S., Thomas, C. D., & Roy, D. B. (2014) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12256 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring
Bjorkman, A. D., García Criado, M., Myers-Smith, I. H., Ravolainen, V., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Westergaard, K. B., Lawler, J. P., Aronsson, M., Bennett, B., Gardfjell, H., et al. (2020) · Ambio · doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01161-6 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
SANDERSON, E. W., REDFORD, K. H., WEBER, B., AUNE, K., BALDES, D., BERGER, J., CARTER, D., CURTIN, C., DERR, J., DOBROTT, S., et al. (2008) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00899.x · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Physiological ecology meets climate change
Bozinovic, F., & Pörtner, H. (2015) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.1403 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests
Bertrand, R., Riofrío-Dillon, G., Lenoir, J., Drapier, J., de Ruffray, P., Gégout, J.-C., & Loreau, M. (2016) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms12643 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
Recent Trends in Local-Scale Marine Biodiversity Reflect Community Structure and Human Impacts
Elahi, R., O’Connor, M. I., Byrnes, J. E. K., Dunic, J., Eriksson, B. K., Hensel, M. J. S., & Kearns, P. J. (2015) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2015.05.030 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Sauer, W. H. H., Gleadall, I. G., Downey-Breedt, N., Doubleday, Z., Gillespie, G., Haimovici, M., Ibáñez, C. M., Katugin, O. N., Leporati, S., Lipinski, M. R., et al. (2021) · Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture · doi:10.1080/23308249.2019.1680603 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Climate-induced range contraction drives genetic erosion in an alpine mammal
Rubidge, E. M., Patton, J. L., Lim, M., Burton, A. C., Brashares, J. S., & Moritz, C. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1415 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
KARL, I., STOKS, R., DE BLOCK, M., JANOWITZ, S. A., & FISCHER, K. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02277.x · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Sørensen, J. G., Kristensen, T. N., & Overgaard, J. (2016) · Current Opinion in Insect Science · doi:10.1016/j.cois.2016.08.003 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Breakdown in spawning synchrony: a silent threat to coral persistence
Shlesinger, T., & Loya, Y. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aax0110 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth
Zarnetske, P. L., Gurevitch, J., Franklin, J., Groffman, P. M., Harrison, C. S., Hellmann, J. J., Hoffman, F. M., Kothari, S., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1921854118 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Chronobiology of interspecific interactions in a changing world
Kronfeld-Schor, N., Visser, M. E., Salis, L., & van Gils, J. A. (2017) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2016.0248 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Potential adaptive strategies for 29 sub-Saharan crops under future climate change
Pironon, S., Etherington, T. R., Borrell, J. S., Kühn, N., Macias-Fauria, M., Ondo, I., Tovar, C., Wilkin, P., & Willis, K. J. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0585-7 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Changing climates, changing forests: A western North American perspective
Fettig, C. J., Reid, M. L., Bentz, B. J., Sevanto, S., Spittlehouse, D. L., & Wang, T. (2013) · Journal of Forestry · doi:10.5849/jof.12-085 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Running dry: Freshwater biodiversity, protected areas and climate change
Pittock, J., Hansen, L. J., & Abell, R. (2008) · Biodiversity · doi:10.1080/14888386.2008.9712905 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Invasion, establishment, and range expansion of two parasitic nematodes in the Canadian Arctic
Kutz, S. J., Checkley, S., Verocai, G. G., Dumond, M., Hoberg, E. P., Peacock, R., Wu, J. P., Orsel, K., Seegers, K., Warren, A. L., et al. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12315 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Luo, J., Koselj, K., Zsebők, S., Siemers, B. M., & Goerlitz, H. R. (2014) · Journal of The Royal Society Interface · doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.0961 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Have bird distributions shifted along an elevational gradient on a tropical mountain?
Campos‐Cerqueira, M., Arendt, W. J., Wunderle, J. M., & Aide, T. M. (2017) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.3520 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
McGovern, S., Evans, C. D., Dennis, P., Walmsley, C., & McDonald, M. A. (2011) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.1111/j.1654-1103.2011.01256.x · Cited by 55 · see citing works
de Winter, N. J., Müller, I. A., Kocken, I. J., Thibault, N., Ullmann, C. V., Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D. J., Claeys, P., & Ziegler, M. (2021) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00193-9 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Siemer, J. P., Machín, F., González‐Vega, A., Arrieta, J. M., Gutiérrez‐Guerra, M. A., Pérez‐Hernández, M. D., Vélez‐Belchí, P., Hernández‐Guerra, A., & Fraile‐Nuez, E. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1029/2021jc017268 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Ramos, J. E., Pecl, G. T., Moltschaniwskyj, N. A., Strugnell, J. M., León, R. I., & Semmens, J. M. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103480 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Erauskin-Extramiana, M., Chust, G., Arrizabalaga, H., Cheung, W. W. L., Santiago, J., Merino, G., & Fernandes-Salvador, J. A. (2023) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104055 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Rosenberger, A. E., Dunham, J. B., Neuswanger, J. R., & Railsback, S. F. (2015) · Freshwater Science · doi:10.1086/683338 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Lowland extirpation of anuran populations on a tropical mountain
Campos-Cerqueira, M., & Aide, T. M. (2017) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.4059 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Hueholt, D. M., Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., & Morrison, A. L. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47656-z · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Genetic footprints reveal geographic patterns of expansion in Fennoscandian red foxes
Norén, K., Statham, M. J., Ågren, E. O., Isomursu, M., Flagstad, Ø., Eide, N. E., Berg, T. B. G., Bech‐Sanderhoff, L., & Sacks, B. N. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12922 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
The Responses of Insects to Global Warming
Guo, K., Sun, O. J., & Kang, L. (2011) · Recent Advances in Entomological Research · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-17815-3_11 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Oliveira, A. G. D., Peláez, O., & Agostinho, A. A. (2021) · Neotropical Ichthyology · doi:10.1590/1982-0224-2021-0034 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
- Authors
- Parmesan, C.
- Affiliations
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- Corresponding author
- Parmesan, Camille
- ORCID
- Parmesan, Camille
- Venue
- Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2006-12-01
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 637-669
- ISSN
- 1543-592X (ISSN-L)
- 1545-2069
- OpenAlex
- W2135858501
- Cited by
- 8,652
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 313 · 2025: 399 · 2024: 381 · 2023: 476 · 2022: 487 · 2021: 502 · 2020: 519 · 2019: 534 · 2018: 484 · 2017: 490 · 2016: 474 · 2015: 524 · 2014: 562 · 2013: 598 · 2012: 499
- FWCI
- 4.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
- Keywords
- climate change, phenology, range shifts, range contraction, range expansion, range-restricted species, coral reef degradation, amphibian decline, predator-prey interactions, plant-insect interactions, adaptive evolution, range margins, dispersal evolution, genetic shift
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review