Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful
Abstract
Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale‐dependent context.
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Hydrographic conditions can be seen as providing the 'hydrographic envelope' of the spawning species, a notion related to the more general 'bioclimate envelope' or 'climate space'.
“Such conditions can be seen as providing the 'hydrographic envelope' of the spawning species, a notion which can be related to the more general 5 'bioclimate envelope' or 'climate space' (see Pearson and Dawson, 2003 and references therein).”
From Modelling potential spawning habitat of sardine ( <i>Sardina pilchardus</i> ) and anchovy ( <i>Engraulis encrasicolus</i> ) in the Bay of Biscay (2007) · cites this paper as Pearson and Dawson, 2003
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- Authors
- Pearson, R. G., & Dawson, T. P.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Venue
- Global Ecology and Biogeography
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-08-21
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 361-371
- ISSN
- 1466-822X (ISSN-L)
- 1466-8238
- OpenAlex
- W2163816695
- Cited by
- 4,252
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 126 · 2025: 178 · 2024: 169 · 2023: 188 · 2022: 248 · 2021: 244 · 2020: 231 · 2019: 252 · 2018: 226 · 2017: 256 · 2016: 230 · 2015: 234 · 2014: 240 · 2013: 238 · 2012: 242
- FWCI
- 38.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Ecology and Biogeography (publishedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, species distribution modeling, range shifts, species interactions, dispersibility, evolutionary change, spatial scale, hierarchical models, biodiversity change
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