The DOI matches its Crossref record; 22 of the 22 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Abstract
What We're In For: What would our climate future look like if we stopped building any new infrastructure that used fossil fuels? Davis et al. (p. 1330 ; see the Perspective by Hoffert ) made the assumption that all existing infrastructure will be used until the end of its lifetime, after which it will be replaced by infrastructure that does not produce CO 2 . They then calculated the amount of additional CO 2 that will be added to the atmosphere. The outcome is that the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 would remain below 430 parts per million (ppm) (present levels are 390 ppm) and global mean temperatures would increase to 1.3°C above preindustrial values (about 0.5°C above present), well below current targets of 450 ppm and 2°C, respectively.
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“Previous literature has shown that inadequate near-term reduction efforts imply that a substantially higher rate of transformation will be needed to comply with the 2 °C limit11, stranded assets25 and substantially higher mitigation costs in the long term, and reduced techno-economic mitigation potential due to carbon lock-in26.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [26]
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
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Cited by
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Net-zero emissions energy systems
Davis, S. J., Lewis, N. S., Shaner, M., Aggarwal, S., Arent, D., Azevedo, I. L., Benson, S. M., Bradley, T., Brouwer, J., Chiang, Y.-M., et al. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aas9793 · Cited by 2,391
“Furthermore, many energy services rely on long-lived infrastructure and systems so that current investment decisions may lock in patterns of energy supply and demand (and thereby the cost of emissions reductions) for half a century to come (109).”
BackgroundSelf-citationRechargeable Batteries for Grid Scale Energy Storage
Zhu, Z., Jiang, T., Ali, M., Meng, Y., Jin, Y., Cui, Y., & Chen, W. (2022) · Chemical Reviews · doi:10.1021/acs.chemrev.2c00289 · Cited by 1,833
Earth-Abundant Heterogeneous Water Oxidation Catalysts
Hunter, B. M., Gray, H. B., & Müller, A. M. (2016) · Chemical Reviews · doi:10.1021/acs.chemrev.6b00398 · Cited by 1,584
Carbon-based metal-free catalysts
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Carbon lock-in: types, causes, and policy implications
Seto, K. C., Davis, S. J., Mitchell, R. B., Stokes, E. C., Unruh, G., & Ürge-Vorsatz, D. (2016) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085934 · Cited by 1,346
“D w n l B ou d e r Political scientists, sociologists, and other social scientists have developed theories of institutional lock-in as part of broader theories of institutional stability and change, reflecting the view that institutional .”
Metadata
- Authors
- Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- Concordia University (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Davis, Steven J.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2010-09-10
- Volume
- 329
- Issue
- 5997
- Pages
- 1330-1333
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2144603483
- Cited by
- 1,399
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 124 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 102 · 2018: 78 · 2017: 83 · 2016: 69 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 30
- FWCI
- 79.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- CO2 emissions, climate change, fossil fuel combustion, cumulative emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate inertia, emission scenarios
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