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Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

Davis, Steven J., Caldeira, Ken, Matthews, H. Damon·2010·Science

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Abstract

What We're In For: What would our climate future look like if we stopped building any new infrastructure that used fossil fuels? Davis et al. (p. 1330 ; see the Perspective by Hoffert ) made the assumption that all existing infrastructure will be used until the end of its lifetime, after which it will be replaced by infrastructure that does not produce CO 2 . They then calculated the amount of additional CO 2 that will be added to the atmosphere. The outcome is that the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 would remain below 430 parts per million (ppm) (present levels are 390 ppm) and global mean temperatures would increase to 1.3°C above preindustrial values (about 0.5°C above present), well below current targets of 450 ppm and 2°C, respectively.

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“Moreover, the use of building stocks is projected to contribute to 282–701 Gt CO2 between 2010 and 2060.(44) The long life expectancy of buildings and infrastructure makes the system prone to legacies and lock-in effects that predetermine energy- and carbon-intensive pathways, which are costly to redirect.”
Background
Electronic structural engineering of transition metal-based electrocatalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction
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Authors: Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D.
Affiliations: Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
Concordia University (CA)
Corresponding author: Davis, Steven J.
ORCID: Davis, Steven J.
Caldeira, Ken
Matthews, H. Damon
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2010-09-10
Volume: 329
Issue: 5997
Pages: 1330-1333
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1188566
OpenAlex: W2144603483
Cited by: 1,399
References: 22
Citations by year: 2026: 95 · 2025: 124 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 102 · 2018: 78 · 2017: 83 · 2016: 69 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 30
FWCI: 79.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: CO2 emissions, climate change, fossil fuel combustion, cumulative emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate inertia, emission scenarios

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Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

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