Carbon lock-in: types, causes, and policy implications
Abstract
Existing technologies, institutions, and behavioral norms together act to constrain the rate and magnitude of carbon emissions reductions in the coming decades. The inertia of carbon emissions due to such mutually reinforcing physical, economic, and social constraints is referred to as carbon lock-in. Carbon lock-in is a special case of path dependency, which is common in the evolution of complex systems. However, carbon lock-in is particularly prone to entrenchment given the large capital costs, long infrastructure lifetimes, and interrelationships between the socioeconomic and technical systems involved. Further, the urgency of efforts to avoid dangerous climate change exacerbates the liability of even small lock-in risks. Although carbon lock-in has been recognized for years, efforts to characterize the types and causes of carbon lock-in, or to quantitatively assess and evaluate its policy implications, have been limited and scattered across a number of different disciplines. This systematic review of the literature synthesizes what is known about the types and causes of carbon lock-in, including the scale, magnitude, and longevity of the effects, and policy implications. We identify three main types of carbon lock-in and describe how they coevolve: (a) infrastructural and technological, (b) institutional, and (c) behavioral. Although each type of lock-in has its own set of processes, all three are tightly intertwined and contribute to the inertia of carbon emissions. We outline the conditions, opportunities, and strategies for fostering transitions toward less-carbon-intensive emissions trajectories. We conclude by proposing a carbon lock-in research agenda that can help bridge the gaps between science, knowledge, and policy-making.
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Overly rapid deployment due to 'free-driving' or overly slow phase-out due to technological or infrastructural lock-in are entirely plausible.
“Overly rapid deployment due to 'free-driving' 5 , (Weitzman, 2015) or overly slow phase-out due to technological or infrastructural lock-in (Seto et al., 2016) are entirely plausible.”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Seto et al., 2016
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- Authors
- Seto, K. C., Davis, S. J., Mitchell, R. B., Stokes, E. C., Unruh, G., & Ürge-Vorsatz, D.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- University of Oregon (US)
- George Mason University (US)
- Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Central European University, 1051 Budapest, Hungary
- Venue
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2016-11-01
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 425-452
- ISSN
- 1543-5938 (ISSN-L)
- 1545-2050
- OpenAlex
- W2515423874
- Cited by
- 1,346
- References
- 143
- Citations by year
- 2026: 276 · 2025: 194 · 2024: 165 · 2023: 161 · 2022: 132 · 2021: 117 · 2020: 147 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 83 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 5.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Keywords
- carbon lock-in, path dependence, climate change mitigation, institutional lock-in, low-carbon transition, climate policy, research agenda
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