The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Concept of Probability in Safety Assessments of Technological Systems
Abstract
Safety assessments of technological systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical process facilities, and hazardous waste repositories, require the investigation of the occurrence and consequences of rare events. The subjectivistic (Bayesian) theory of probability is the appropriate framework within which expert opinions, which are essential to the quantification process, can be combined with experimental results and statistical observations to produce quantitative measures of the risks from these systems. A distinction is made between uncertainties in physical models and state-of-knowledge uncertainties about the parameters and assumptions of these models. The proper role of past and future relative frequencies and several issues associated with elicitation and use of expert opinions are discussed.
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Cites
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 · Cited by 28,810
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1975) · Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making · doi:10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_8 · Cited by 22,650
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A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology
Marino, S., Hogue, I. B., Ray, C. J., & Kirschner, D. E. (2008) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011 · Cited by 2,999
Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems
Helton, J. C., & Davis, F. J. (2003) · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(03)00058-9 · Cited by 2,688
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Metadata
- Authors
- Apostolakis, G.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 1990-12-07
- Volume
- 250
- Issue
- 4986
- Pages
- 1359-1364
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2046862217
- Cited by
- 629
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 11.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Apostolakis, G. (1990). The Concept of Probability in Safety Assessments of Technological Systems. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.2255906
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
