Cited by 2,436Species Distribution and Climate ChangeEcology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesClimate Change and Environmental Impact

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Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Urban, Mark C.·2015·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.aaa4984

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Abstract

Predicting extinction in a changing world: There is great interest in understanding how species might respond to our changing climate, but predictions have varied greatly. Urban looked at over 130 studies to identify the level of risk that climate change poses to species and the specific traits and characteristics that contribute to risk (see the Perspective by Hille Ris Lambers). If climate changes proceed as expected, one in six species could face extinction. Several regions, including South America, Australia, and New Zealand, face the greatest risk. Understanding these patterns will help us to prepare for, and hopefully prevent, climate-related loss of biodiversity. Science , this issue p. 571 ; see also p. 501

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“A meta-analysis of published estimates found that 3 o C warming will result in an estimated 8.5% of species becoming extinct with a higher rise of 4.3 o C resulting in a figure of 16% (Urban 2015).”
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Authors: Urban, M. C.
Affiliations: University of Connecticut (US)
Corresponding author: Urban, Mark C.
ORCID: Urban, Mark C.
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2015-05
Volume: 348
Issue: 6234
Pages: 571-573
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4984
OpenAlex: W1974424100
Cited by: 2,436
References: 173
Citations by year: 2026: 198 · 2025: 264 · 2024: 255 · 2023: 262 · 2022: 292 · 2021: 288 · 2020: 235 · 2019: 188 · 2018: 171 · 2017: 151 · 2016: 102 · 2015: 28
FWCI: 83.38
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse (vor, 366 d)
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: NSF (DEB-1119877, PLR-1417754)
James S. McDonnell Foundation
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: climate change, extinction risk, extinction rates, extinction debt, dispersal capacity, global warming, species extinction, taxonomic bias
MeSH terms: Animals, Australia, Hot Temperature, New Zealand, Risk, South America, Uncertainty, Extinction, Biological, Climate Change

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Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

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