Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk
Open accessAbstract
Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.
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Long-term data on arthropod population abundance and extinction rates are severely limited.
“Although arthropods comprise more than two-thirds of all terrestrial species and are centrally important to the ecological well-being of the Earth’s ecosystems, long-term data on population abundance and extinction rates are severely limited (9).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [9]
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- Authors
- Maclean, I. M. D., & Wilson, R. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2011-07-11
- Volume
- 108
- Issue
- 30
- Pages
- 12337-12342
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3145734
- OpenAlex
- W2101938541
- Cited by
- 339
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 20 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 32 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 24 · 2012: 31
- FWCI
- 1.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- climate change, extinction risk, IUCN Red List criteria, extinction probability, biodiversity loss, anthropogenic climate change, climate change prediction
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Models, Biological, Phylogeny, Population Density, Risk Factors, Ecosystem, Extinction, Biological, Climate Change
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