The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 9 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Comment on “The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers”
Open accessAbstract
Barbi et al . (Reports, 29 June 2018, p. 1459) reported that human mortality rate reached a “plateau” after the age of 105, suggesting there may be no limit to human longevity. We show, using their data, that potential lifespans cannot increase much beyond the current 122 years unless future biomedical advances alter the intrinsic rate of human aging.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Reanalyzing Barbi et al.'s Italian mortality-plateau data, the authors calculate maximum survival ages under two models and conclude that human lifespans cannot increase much beyond the current 122-year record without major biomedical advances. They argue the plateau does not imply unlimited longevity potential.
Key findings
- From an annual mortality rate of 0.475 at the plateau, life expectancy at age 105 is 1.5 years.
- Under a "radioactive decay" model starting at the plateau mortality level for age 105, Tmax for Italy would be at least 2 years below Jeanne Calment's 122-year record even for a cohort of 10,000 at age 105; the effect of increasing cohort size N on Tmax is attenuated logarithmically (ln N).
- A 50:50 chance of someone reaching 150 years given this plateau would require more than 4 trillion 105-year-olds, about 450 times the current world population of 7.5 billion.
- Gompertz-model calculations (Table 1) give Tmax of 113.9 years for 463 males and 116.9 years for 3,373 females in the 1904 birth cohort, with greater potential Tmax for women by 7 years; since Calment's 1997 death the number of people reaching 110 has doubled, yet no subsequent lifespan has exceeded 120 years (the longest-lived Italian, Emma Morano, died at 117.3 years in 2017).
Methods
- Comment/reanalysis using the birth and death records and mortality plateau reported by Barbi et al. for Italy.
- Two models were applied: a "radioactive decay" model assuming exponential decline of survival at a fixed mortality rate (N/P = exp(−mt), with N set at 1 for the age of the last survivor), and the Gompertz model as calculated in Barbi et al. (m(x) = a × exp(bx) × exp(β1C + β2M)).
- Each model begins with the 463 males and 3,373 females in the Barbi et al. 1904 birth cohort, and Table 1 projects Tmax for varying initial population sizes P by gender.
Limitations
- The authors share Barbi et al.'s caveat that mortality rates after age 105 have uncertainties in many populations.
- The authors note Barbi et al. state the Gompertz model does not hold after age 80, but counter that >95% of adult mortality in the Italian cohorts is described by the Gompertz model, which would concentrate the mortality plateau to <5% of the Italian mortality regime.
- Evident from the text: this is a comment based on reanalysis of previously published data rather than new data collection, and the projections are model-dependent extrapolations.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
0 of 9 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingreasoning
Starting at the plateau level of mortality for age 105 in Barbi et al., the Tmax for a constant rate of annual mortality at age 105 for Italy would be at least 2 years below the record 122-year Tmax of Jeanne Calment, even for a cohort size of 10,000 at age 105.
“Thus, the T max for a constant rate of annual mortality at age 105 for Italy would be at least 2 years below the record 122-year T max of Jeanne Calment, even for a cohort size of 10,000 at age 105.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The radioactive decay model assumes exponential decline of survival at a fixed mortality rate.
- Rests on an assumption: The record human lifespan is 122 years (Jeanne Calment).
- Findingcitation
To attain a 50:50 chance of someone reaching 150 years of age given this plateau would take more than 4 trillion 105-year-olds, about 450 times the current world population of 7.5 billion.
“To attain a 50:50 chance of someone reaching 150 years of age given this plateau would take more than 4 trillion 105-year-olds, about 450 times the current world population of 7.5 billion (3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The radioactive decay model assumes exponential decline of survival at a fixed mortality rate.
- Rests on an assumption: The record human lifespan is 122 years (Jeanne Calment).
- Findingreasoning
Life expectancy at age 105 is 1.5 years, calculated from annual mortality rates of 0.475.
“Calculating from annual mortality rates of 0.475, the life expectancy at age 105 is 1.5 years.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Further calculations based on the Gompertz model of Barbi et al. or on the basic Gompertz equation also show limits to Tmax that differ by gender for different numbers of initial survivors.
“Further calculations based on the Gompertz model of Barbi et al. (lower part of Table 1) or on the basic Gompertz equation (4) also show limits to Tmax that differ by gender for different numbers of initial survivors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [4]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data
Two very different models yield similar estimates of maximum survival age, Tmax.
“Two very different models yield similar estimates of maximum survival age, Tmax.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The radioactive decay model assumes exponential decline of survival at a fixed mortality rate.
- Findingcitation
Lower plateaus are indicated for the growing survival to extreme age.
“Lower plateaus are indicated for the growing survival to extreme age [figure 1A of (1)]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Since Calment's death in 1997 at the age of 122, the numbers of people reaching 110 years have increased by a factor of 2.
“Since Calment's death in 1997 at the age of 122, the numbers of people reaching 110 years have increased by a factor of 2 (3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Rests on an assumption: The record human lifespan is 122 years (Jeanne Calment).
- Interpretationown data
Potential lifespans cannot increase much beyond the current 122 years unless future biomedical advances alter the intrinsic rate of human aging.
“We show, using their data, that potential lifespans cannot increase much beyond the current 122 years unless future biomedical advances alter the intrinsic rate of human aging.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“However, our calculations suggest that the current record of 122 years cannot be exceeded by much without major advances in combatting mortality at both younger and advanced ages.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“In sum, regardless of whether one chooses an extrapolation assuming a mortality plateau after age 105 as calculated by Barbi et al. or by a continued Gompertzian increase in mortality after that age (4), the likelihood of anyone surviving much beyond the longevity record of Calment becomes remote unless unexpectedly large biomedical advances prove to ameliorate the basic biology of human aging.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: No subsequent lifespan has exceeded 120 years.
- Rests on an assumption: The record human lifespan is 122 years (Jeanne Calment).
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
- Interpretationreasoning
These calculations challenge conclusions that mortality plateaus allow unlimited longevity potential.
“These calculations challenge conclusions that mortality plateaus allow unlimited longevity potential.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: No subsequent lifespan has exceeded 120 years.
- Rests on an assumption: The record human lifespan is 122 years (Jeanne Calment).
- Premisecitation
Barbi and colleagues provide high-quality data showing a mortality rate plateau for Italy after age 105 from birth and death records.
“Barbi and colleagues provide new high-quality data that show a mortality rate plateau for Italy after age 105 from birth and death records (1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
More than 95% of adult mortality in the Italian cohorts is described by the Gompertz model.
“>95% of adult mortality in the Italian cohorts is described by the Gompertz model ( 5)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
The Gompertz slope has become steeper for both genders within the 20th century with the decline of baseline mortality.
“Moreover, the Gompertz slope has become steeper for both genders within the 20th century with the decline of baseline mortality (4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [4]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
The mortality plateau would be concentrated to a critically narrow domain of less than 5% of the Italian mortality regime.
“which would concentrate the mortality plateau to a critically narrow domain of <5% of the Italian mortality regime.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The impact of increasing cohort N on Tmax is attenuated logarithmically (ln N).
“Notably, the impact of increasing cohort N on T max is attenuated logarithmically (ln N) (2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The radioactive decay model assumes exponential decline of survival at a fixed mortality rate.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 1
- Probably not a substantial claim. 1
It may state two separate claims as one.
FindingcitationOur calculations of Tmax from Gompertz exponential mortality rates closely agree with reported records, with greater potential Tmax for women by 7 years.
“Our calculations of Tmax from Gompertz exponential mortality rates closely agree with reported records, with greater potential T max for women by 7 years (4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [4]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Rests on an assumption: The record human lifespan is 122 years (Jeanne Calment).
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
Study design and conductcitationMortality rates after age 105 have uncertainties in many populations.
“We share the caveats of Barbi et al. that mortality rates after age 105 have uncertainties in many populations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
The radioactive decay model assumes exponential decline of survival at a fixed mortality rate.
“The simplest “radioactive decay” model assumes exponential decline of survival at a fixed mortality rate and calculates the age of the last survivor (2).”
The paper relies on this without support.
No subsequent lifespan has exceeded 120 years.
“Yet no subsequent lifespan has exceeded 120 years.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The record human lifespan is 122 years (Jeanne Calment).
“the record 122-year T max of Jeanne Calment”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
The stated population multiple does not exceed 4 trillion
Minor450 times 7.5 billion is 3.375 trillion, not more than 4 trillion.
“more than 4 trillion 105-year-olds”
“about 450 times the current world population of 7.5 billion (3)”
Citations
Cites
The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers
Barbi, E., Lagona, F., Marsili, M., Vaupel, J. W., & Wachter, K. W. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aat3119 · Cited by 299
Maximum Life Span Predictions From the Gompertz Mortality Model
Finch, C. E., & Pike, M. C. (1996) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/51a.3.b183 · Cited by 145
Self-citationEarly cohort mortality predicts the rate of aging in the cohort: a historical analysis
Beltrán‐Sánchez, H., Crimmins, E. M., & Finch, C. E. (2012) · Journal of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease · doi:10.1017/s2040174412000281 · Cited by 50
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- N. S. Gavrilova L. A. Gavrilov V. N. Krut’ko in 2017 Living to 100 T. F. Harris Ed. (Society of Actuaries 2017) pp. 1–24.
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Tarkhov, A. E., Alla, R., Ayyadevara, S., Pyatnitskiy, M. A., Men’shikov, L. I., Reis, R. J. S., & Fedichev, P. O. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-43075-z · Cited by 69
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Lathe, R., & Clair, D. S. (2023) · Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · doi:10.1111/brv.12959 · Cited by 36
Are We Approaching a Biological Limit to Human Longevity?
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The question of the human mortality plateau: Contrasting insights by longevity pioneers
Dang, L. H. K., Camarda, C. G., Meslé, F., Ouellette, N., Robine, J., & Vallin, J. (2023) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2023.48.11 · Cited by 20
Why Gilgamesh failed: the mechanistic basis of the limits to human lifespan
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Álvarez, J.-A., Villavicencio, F., Strozza, C., & Camarda, C. G. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0253940 · Cited by 18
Swiss Cohort & Biobank – The White Paper
Probst-Hensch, N. M., Bochud, M., Chioléro, A., Crivelli, L., Dratva, J., Flahault, A., Frey, D., Künzli, N., Puhan, M. A., Suggs, L. S., et al. (2022) · Public health reviews · doi:10.3389/phrs.2022.1605660 · Cited by 17
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Jeanne Calment, Actuarial Paradoxography and the Limit to Human Lifespan
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Response to Comment on “The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers”
Barbi, E., Lagona, F., Marsili, M., Vaupel, J. W., & Wachter, K. W. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aav3229 · Cited by 5
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Prolonging life by vitagions: Modelling of mortality improvement shocks
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Ashes to Ashes and Dust to Dust
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Yaşlanma Kader mi? Yaşlanma Biyolojisi ve Genetiği
Lüleyap, H. Ü. (2026) · Akademisyen Kitabevi eBooks · doi:10.37609/akya.4073
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Metadata
- Authors
- Beltrán-Sánchez, H., Austad, S. N., & Finch, C. E.
- Affiliations
- Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
- University of Alabama (US)
- University of Southern California (US)
- Corresponding author
- Finch, C. E.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2018-09-28
- Volume
- 361
- Issue
- 6409
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2893060869
- Semantic Scholar
- 4e26dc855f8b8c5d099546ac038dcacf391f0092
- Cited by
- 42
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 1
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- escholarship.org
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Aging › Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Keywords
- human mortality, longevity, centenarians, mortality plateau, human aging
- MeSH terms
- Aging, Demography, Humans, Life Expectancy, Longevity, Mortality
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