CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 496Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementGenetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model OrganismsTelomeres, Telomerase, and Senescence

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 12 of the 12 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 5 of the 16 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Evidence for a limit to human lifespan

Open access
Dong, Xiao, Milholland, Brandon, Vijg, Jan·2016·Nature
DOI 10.1038/nature19793PMC PMC11673931
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Driven by technological progress, human life expectancy has increased greatly since the nineteenth century. Demographic evidence has revealed an ongoing reduction in old-age mortality and a rise of the maximum age at death, which may gradually extend human longevity. Together with observations that lifespan in various animal species is flexible and can be increased by genetic or pharmaceutical intervention, these results have led to suggestions that longevity may not be subject to strict, species-specific genetic constraints. Here, by analysing global demographic data, we show that improvements in survival with age tend to decline after age 100, and that the age at death of the world’s oldest person has not increased since the 1990s. Our results strongly suggest that the maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints.

Verifying this paper

8 of 9 steps done · this page updates itself — you can leave and come back

  1. Registry recordVerified
  2. Full textRead the full text
  3. Reference list12 references found
  4. Reference checkChecking each cited work — 12 of 12
  5. StatisticsRecomputed
  6. Claims30 claims anchored to a quote
  7. Cited sourcesChecked
  8. Self-checkChecked
  9. VerificationFindings verified

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Global demographic data show that improvements in survival decline after age 100 and that the maximum reported age at death has not increased since the 1990s. The authors conclude that human maximum lifespan is fixed and subject to natural constraints.

Key findings

  • The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) plateaued at 114.9 years (95% CI: 113.1–116.7), and the probability of an MRAD exceeding 125 in any given year is less than 1 in 10,000.
  • Before 1995, MRAD increased by 0.15 years per year (r = 0.68, P = 0.0007); after 1995 it decreased slightly by 0.28 years per year (r = −0.35, P = 0.27). The independent GRG database showed a similar pattern: increase by 0.12 years per year during 1972–1994 (r = 0.71, P = 0.0002), followed by a slight decrease by 0.14 years per year during 1995–2015 (r = −0.36, P = 0.70).
  • The age with the greatest improvement in survival appeared to plateau around 1980; a similar pattern was seen in 88% of the 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database.
  • All series of high reported age at death showed the same pattern as MRAD, and the annual average age at death for supercentenarians has not increased since 1968.

Methods

  • Analyzed global demographic data from the Human Mortality Database (41 countries and territories, including France), the International Database on Longevity (IDL; n = 534 supercentenarians, 1968–2006) for France, Japan, UK and US, and the Gerontological Research Group (GRG) database (worldwide, 1972–2015).
  • Plotted yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) and high reported age at death (HRAD) series, partitioned data into 1968–1994 and 1995–2006, and modelled each group using linear regression.
  • Modelled MRAD as a Poisson distribution to approximate the absolute limit of human lifespan, and examined survival to old age and the rate of improvement in survival by age.

Limitations

  • Stated: the ages at death of the supercentenarians are noisy and made up of small samples; the findings “suggest, but do not prove,” that human lifespan may have a natural limit.
  • Stated: the fairly small number of reported MRAD cases could explain the results simply as fluctuations.
  • Evident from the text: the analyses are demographic and observational, and do not directly test biological mechanisms for the proposed limit.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/nature19793

Cites

12 of 12 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

5 of 16 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    The most convincing argument that the maximum lifespan of humans is not fixed is the ongoing increase in life expectancy in most countries over the last century.

    “Indeed, the most convincing argument that the maximum lifespan of humans is not fixed is the ongoing increase in life expectancy in most countries over the course of the last century1,2.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [1] Oeppen, J. & Vaupel, J. W. Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science 296, 1029–1031 (2002) source
    • cites [2] Vaupel, J. W. Biodemography of human ageing. Nature 464, 536–542 (2010) source

      In “The postponement of mortality” (page not provided), Vaupel says that mortality at advanced ages is being postponed and that the notion of a species-specific maximum lifespan was refuted. “Forecasts and consequences of longer lives” reports a sustained rise in life expectancy over 170 years, but for countries with the highest life expectancies—not most countries. The paper also does not identify that trend as the most convincing argument against a fixed maximum lifespan. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    The idea that ageing is a purposeful, programmed series of events that evolved under the direct force of natural selection to cause death has been all but discredited.

    “The idea that ageing is a purposeful, programmed series of events that evolved under the direct force of natural selection to cause death has now been all but discredited12.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [12] Vijg, J. & Kennedy, B. K. The Essence of Aging. Gerontology 62, 381–385 (2016) source
  • Interpretationcitation

    The possibility of extending human lifespan beyond these limits is essentially constrained by the myriad of genetic variants that collectively determine species-specific lifespan.

    “Although there is no scientific reason why such efforts could not be successful, the possibility is essentially constrained by the myriad of genetic variants that collectively determine species-specific lifespan16.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [16] Vijg, J. & Campisi, J. Puzzles, promises and a cure for ageing. Nature 454, 1065–1071 (2008) source

      In “Evolutionary logic of ageing” (page unavailable), the paper says species differences in longevity probably arose through subtle changes in many genes and that targeting a single gene or pathway may therefore have limited effects. It does not establish that genetic variants impose an essential constraint on extending human lifespan; “Translation to humans” says the extent of possible extension remains unknown. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Interpretationcitation

    To further extend human lifespan beyond the limits set by these longevity-assurance systems would require interventions beyond improving health span.

    “To further extend human lifespan beyond the limits set by these longevity-assurance systems would require interventions beyond improving health span, some of which are currently under investigation15.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [15] Longo, V. D. et al. Interventions to slow aging in humans: are we ready? Aging Cell 14, 497–510 (2015) source

      The Introduction reports interventions that extend lifespan in experimental organisms, and the Conclusions describe interventions being considered to increase human healthspan. Neither passage says that extending human lifespan beyond limits set by “longevity-assurance systems” requires interventions beyond improving healthspan. Our copy gives no page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingown data

    The age at death of the world's oldest person has not increased since the 1990s.

    “Here, by analysing global demographic data, we show that improvements in survival with age tend to decline after age 100, and that the age at death of the world’s oldest person has not increased since the 1990s.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
      “human yearly MRAD has plateaued at 114.9 (95% CI: 113.1–116.7) years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
    • Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 4
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 8

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Demographic evidence has revealed an ongoing reduction in old-age mortality and a rise of the maximum age at death, which may gradually extend human longevity.

    “Demographic evidence has revealed an ongoing reduction in old-age mortality and a rise of the maximum age at death, which may gradually extend human longevity1,2.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [1] Oeppen, J. & Vaupel, J. W. Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science 296, 1029–1031 (2002) source
    • cites [2] Vaupel, J. W. Biodemography of human ageing. Nature 464, 536–542 (2010) source

      In ‘The postponement of mortality’ (page unavailable), the paper says mortality at advanced ages is being postponed and challenges the idea of a fixed maximum lifespan. ‘Forecasts and consequences of longer lives’ documents rising life expectancy. Our copy does not establish the more specific claim that the maximum observed age at death has risen. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    After 1995, the MRAD no longer increased significantly and decreased slightly by 0.28 years per year (r=-0.35, P=0.27).

    “however, after 1995 it no longer increased significantly and in fact decreased slightly by 0.28 years per year (r = −0.35, P = 0.27).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
    • Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) of France, Japan, UK and US increased rapidly between the 1970s and early 1990s, then reached a plateau around 1995.

    “As shown in Fig. 2a, although age at death increased rapidly between the 1970s and early 1990s, it reached a plateau around 1995, close to 1997, the year Jeanne Calment died.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
    • Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Using GRG data, MRAD increased by 0.12 years per year during 1972-1994 (r=0.71, P=0.0002), followed by a slight decrease by 0.14 years per year during 1995-2015 (r=-0.36, P=0.70).

    “we observed a similar trend—an increase by 0.12 years per year (r = 0.71, P=0.0002) during the period 1972–1994, followed by a slight decrease by 0.14 years per year (r = −0.36, P=0.70) during the period 1995–2015”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
    • Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    More recent data show evidence for a decline in late-life mortality, with the fraction of each birth cohort reaching old age increasing with calendar year.

    “More recent data, however, show evidence for a decline in late-life mortality, with the fraction of each birth cohort reaching old age increasing with calendar year.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8] The Human Mortality Database ( http://www.mortality.org , 2016)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • Rests on an assumption: The 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database are representative of developed, low-mortality countries.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The ages at death of the supercentenarians in the present study are noisy and made up of small samples.

    “With the caveat that the ages at death of the supercentenarians in our present study are still noisy and made up of small samples”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Many historical gains in life expectancy have been attributed to a reduction in early-life mortality.

    “As shown by data from the Human Mortality Database8, many of the historical gains in life expectancy have been attributed to a reduction in early-life mortality.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8] The Human Mortality Database ( http://www.mortality.org , 2016)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Studies in model organisms have shown that maximum lifespan is flexible and can be affected by genetic and pharmacological interventions.

    “Studies in model organisms have shown that maximum lifespan is flexible and can be affected by genetic and pharmacological interventions5.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] Kenyon, C. The plasticity of aging: insights from long-lived mutants. Cell 120, 449–460 (2005) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Maximum lifespan is generally assumed to be a stable characteristic of a species.

    “Maximum lifespan is, in contrast to average lifespan, generally assumed to be a stable characteristic of a species3.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [3] Austad, S. N. in Molecular and Cellular Biology of Aging (eds Vijg, J., Campisi, J. & Lithgow, G. ) Ch. 2 (The Gerontological Society of America, 2015)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationown data

    The maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints.

    “Our results strongly suggest that the maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · boosted
      “our data strongly suggest that the duration of life is limited.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · boosted
      “our results strongly suggest that human lifespan has a natural limit.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.
    • Rests on an assumption: The MRAD records from France, Japan, UK and US are representative of the global human population for estimating maximum human lifespan.
    • Rests on an assumption: The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.
10 of 10

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) is a valid measure of the maximum lifespan of humans.

    “We first plotted the yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) of France, Japan, UK and US, countries with the largest number of recorded supercentenarians (individuals aged 110 years old or more) in the International Database on Longevity9 (IDL; n = 534, 1968–2006).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The MRAD records from France, Japan, UK and US are representative of the global human population for estimating maximum human lifespan.

    “We first plotted the yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) of France, Japan, UK and US, countries with the largest number of recorded supercentenarians (individuals aged 110 years old or more) in the International Database on Longevity9 (IDL; n = 534, 1968–2006).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The 41 countries in the Human Mortality Database are representative of developed, low-mortality countries.

    “This pattern is very similar across the other 40 countries and territories included in the database (Extended Data Figs 2, 3).”
    “The same pattern was found across other developed, low-mortality countries (Extended Data Fig. 4).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The age at death of supercentenarians is accurately recorded in the IDL and GRG databases.

    “We first plotted the yearly maximum reported age at death (MRAD) of France, Japan, UK and US, countries with the largest number of recorded supercentenarians (individuals aged 110 years old or more) in the International Database on Longevity9 (IDL; n = 534, 1968–2006).”
    “When we considered MRAD records from another, independent resource, the Gerontological Research Group (GRG; http://www.grg.org/), we observed a similar trend”
4 of 4

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Maximum lifespan stagnated.

    “This occurred at the same time period that life expectancy at birth decelerated in all countries with long-lived populations and maximum lifespan stagnated21.”

    From Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century (2024) · cites this paper as [21]

  • The results contribute to a recently rekindled debate about the existence of a fixed maximum lifespan for humans, underwriting doubt that any limit is as yet in view.

    “Our results contribute to a recently rekindled debate (15–17) about the existence of a fixed maximum lifespan for humans, underwriting doubt that any limit is as yet in view.”

    From The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers (2018) · cites this paper as [15]

  • Exceeding 115 is likely to occur for only a handful of people, and this has proven to be so.

    “Exceeding 115 is likely to occur for only a handful of people-and this has proven to be so (44).”

    From Inconvenient Truths About Human Longevity (2019) · cites this paper as [44]

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Jeune, B. et al.. in Supercentenarians (eds H. Maier et al.) (Springer, 2010)
  2. Finch, C. E. Longevity, Senescence, and the Genome (Univ. Chicago Press, 1990)

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Metadata

Authors
Dong, X., Milholland, B., & Vijg, J.
Affiliations
Albert Einstein College of Medicine (US)
Corresponding author
Vijg, Jan
ORCID
Venue
Nature
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2016-10-05
Volume
538
Issue
7624
Pages
257-259
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
DOI
10.1038/nature19793
PMC
PMC11673931
OpenAlex
W2528628699
Semantic Scholar
85351260d12042130ac86811a1187d7fad282f27
Cited by
495
References
12
Citations by year
2026: 20 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 85 · 2020: 54 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 69 · 2016: 10
FWCI
143.54
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Institutes of Health
  • National Institute on Aging (P30AG038072, P01AG017242, P01AG047200)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Aging › Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cell Biology › Telomeres, Telomerase, and Senescence
Keywords
human lifespan, maximum lifespan, life expectancy, age at death, mortality decline, old-age mortality, demographic analysis, historical mortality trends
MeSH terms
Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Humans, Life Expectancy, Longevity, Models, Biological, Mortality, Species Specificity

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-08, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-08 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review