Sparse data bias: a problem hiding in plain sight
Open accessAbstract
Effects of treatment or other exposure on outcome events are commonly measured by ratios of risks, rates, or odds. Adjusted versions of these measures are usually estimated by maximum likelihood regression (eg, logistic, Poisson, or Cox modelling). But resulting estimates of effect measures can have serious bias when the data lack adequate case numbers for some combination of exposure and outcome levels. This bias can occur even in quite large datasets and is hence often termed sparse data bias. The bias can arise or be worsened by regression adjustment for potentially confounding variables; in the extreme, the resulting estimates could be impossibly huge or even infinite values that are meaningless artefacts of data sparsity. Such estimate inflation might be obvious in light of background information, but is rarely noted let alone accounted for in research reports. We outline simple methods for detecting and dealing with the problem focusing especially on penalised estimation, which can be easily performed with common software packages.
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There is a sparse data risk in research with transgender individuals because of small sample sizes and short study durations.
“there is a sparse data risk66 because of small sample sizes and short study durations”
From How does hormone transition in transgender women change body composition, muscle strength and haemoglobin? Systematic review with a focus on the implications for sport participation (2021) · cites this paper as [66]
The Abstract (page unavailable) explains that sparse data bias can arise when there are too few cases in combinations of exposure and outcome categories, supporting the concern about small samples. The paper does not address research with transgender individuals or identify short study durations as a cause of sparse data bias. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe pooled OR estimates of this analysis may be limited by sparse data bias, which can inflate estimates of effect measures and should be considered when interpreting the findings.
“This analysis may also be limited by the possibility of sparse data bias in the pooled OR estimates, as indicated by the unconventional ORs and wide confidence limits produced by some studies.This is problematic as such bias can inflate the estimate of effect measures, which should be taken into account when interpreting the findings of the present analysis.37”
From Risk of atrial fibrillation in athletes: a systematic review and meta-analysis (2021) · cites this paper as [37]
Confounder imprecision does not bias the target estimator, that is, the association of physical activity on severe COVID-19 outcomes.
“However, confounder imprecision does not bias the target estimator, that is, the association of PA on severe COVID-19 outcomes. 29”
From Physical inactivity is associated with a higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes: a study in 48 440 adult patients (2021) · cites this paper as [29]
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Fat, L. N., Shelton, N. J., & Cable, N. (2018) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-018-5995-3 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
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Grindem, H., Engebretsen, L., Axe, M. J., et al. (2020) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2019-100623 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Steffen, K., Soligard, T., Mountjoy, M. L., Dallo, I., Gessara, A. M., Giuria, H., Alamino, L. P., Rodríguez, J. A. P., Salmina, N., Serrano, D. F. V., et al. (2019) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2019-101040 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
High incidence of HCV in HIV-negative men who have sex with men using pre-exposure prophylaxis
Hoornenborg, E., Coyer, L., Boyd, A. C., Achterbergh, R., van der Loeff, M. F. S., Bruisten, S. M., de Vries, H. J. C., Koopsen, J., van de Laar, T. J. W., Prins, M., et al. (2019) · Journal of Hepatology · doi:10.1016/j.jhep.2019.11.022 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Dealing with small samples in football research
Hecksteden, A., Kellner, R., & Donath, L. (2021) · Science and Medicine in Football · doi:10.1080/24733938.2021.1978106 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
“…variables (and their interactions) are necessary to explain variance and achieve practical predictive accuracy, even a prima vista large number of participants will not suffice to detect their tiny independent contributions, let alone cover their possible combinations (Greenland et al. 2016).”
BackgroundHashem, M., Usmani, R. S. A., Almutairi, M. S., Ibrahim, A. O., Zakari, A., Alotaibi, F. A., Alhashmi, S. M., & Chiroma, H. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15053916 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Silva, T. C., Pescarini, J. M., Cardim, L. L., Leyrat, C., Whitaker, H., de Brito, C. A. A., Brickley, E. B., Barral‐Netto, M., Barreto, M. L., Teixeira, M. G., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(23)00739-9 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Opar, D. A., Timmins, R. G., Behan, F. P., Hickey, J. T., van Dyk, N., Price, K., & Maniar, N. (2021) · Sports Medicine · doi:10.1007/s40279-021-01474-1 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Newsum, A. M., Matser, A. A., Schinkel, J., van der Valk, M., Brinkman, K., van Eeden, A., Lauw, F. N., Rijnders, B. J. A., van de Laar, T. J. W., van de Kerkhof, M., et al. (2020) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa645 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Chihara, D., Lin, R., Flowers, C. R., et al. (2022) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01390-3 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
How to Write Statistical Analysis Section in Medical Research
Dwivedi, A. K. (2022) · Journal of Investigative Medicine · doi:10.1136/jim-2022-002479 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
“73 In the presence of sparsity, the effect size is difficult to interpret.”
Hargreaves, J., Krishnaratne, S., Mathema, H., Lilleston, P. S., Sievwright, K. M., Mandla, N., Mainga, T., Vermaak, R., Piwowar‐Manning, E., Schaap, A., et al. (2018) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0000000000001757 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“Wide confidence intervals for some associations reflect few events for some outcomes, limited intercluster variation for some exposure variables and the small number of clusters [22].”
BackgroundSteenkamp, L., Saggers, R. T., Bandini, R. M., Stranges, S., Choi, Y., Thornton, J. S., Hendrie, S., Patel, D., Rabinowitz, S., & Patricios, J. (2022) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2021-105159 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Pouwels, K. B., Müller‐Pebody, B., Smieszek, T., Hopkins, S., & Robotham, J. V. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0218134 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
“Elastic net regularization is especially useful when encountering situations with high collinearity, such as strong correlations in antibiotic usage, and a relatively large number of variables (antibiotic groups) compared to the amount of observations [16,18,19].”
BackgroundClinical outcomes in adult athletes with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a 7-year follow-up study
Pelliccia, A., Caselli, S., Pelliccia, M., Musumeci, B., Lemme, E., Paolo, F. M. D., Maestrini, V., Russo, D., Limite, L. R., Borrazzo, C., et al. (2020) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2019-100890 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Tsang, G., Xie, X., & Zhou, S. (2019) · IEEE Reviews in Biomedical Engineering · doi:10.1109/rbme.2019.2904488 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
“…the employment of sparse optimised feature selection, dimensionality reduction or representation learning for effective biomarker and risk factor identification; and adequate data coverage producing meaningless artefacts and bias termed sparse data bias , potential solutions of which exist [98].”
BackgroundTenets for the Proper Conduct and Use of Meta-Analyses: A Practical Guide for Neurosurgeons
Lee, K. S., Zhang, J. J. Y., Nga, V. D. W., Ng, C. H., Tai, B. C., Higgins, J. P. T., & Syn, N. L. X. (2022) · World Neurosurgery · doi:10.1016/j.wneu.2021.09.034 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Baseline Prostate-specific Antigen Level in Midlife and Aggressive Prostate Cancer in Black Men
Preston, M. A., Gerke, T. A., Carlsson, S., et al. (2018) · European Urology · doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2018.08.032 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Andreou, D., Ranft, A., Gosheger, G., Timmermann, B., Ladenstein, R. L., Hartmann, W., Bauer, S., Baumhoer, D., van den Berg, H., Dijkstra, P. D. S., et al. (2019) · Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research · doi:10.1097/corr.0000000000000962 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
“Furthermore, the observational nature of this analysis meant that adequate patient numbers may have been lacking some combinations of risk factors and investigated outcomes in our cohort, leading to possible sparse-data bias [12, 22], which is highlighted by the very wide confidence intervals of the persistent extraos…”
BackgroundCoping With the “Small Sample–Small Relevant Effects” Dilemma in Elite Sport Research
Skorski, S., & Hecksteden, A. (2021) · International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance · doi:10.1123/ijspp.2021-0467 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Strøm, M., Mortensen, E. L., Kesmodel, U. S., et al. (2019) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-023134 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
“Associations tended to be attenuated with increasing number of covariates in our analyses, suggesting unadjusted confounding or sparse data bias.(55) As is always the case in observational studies, we cannot exclude that our results are affected by residual confounding or confounding by factors not accounted for in ou…”
Time-to-event analysis for sports injury research part 2: time-varying outcomes
Nielsen, R. O., Bertelsen, M. L., Ramskov, D., Møller, M., Hulme, A., Theisen, D., Finch, C. F., Fortington, L. V., Mansournia, M. A., & Parner, E. T. (2018) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2018-100000 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Self-citationGregson, C. L., Newell, F., Leo, P. J., Clark, G. R., Paternoster, L., Marshall, M. S., Forgetta, V., Morris, J. A., Ge, B., Bao, X. Y., et al. (2018) · Bone · doi:10.1016/j.bone.2018.06.001 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
“Because gender was not evenly distributed within study populations (only 44 male individuals, all amongst unexplained HBM cases), inclusion as a covariate risks introducing sparse data bias [26], hence gender was not used as a covariate.”
BackgroundWu, W., Yao, Y., Song, Y., He, D., & Wang, R. (2021) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2021.127161 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Orchard, J. W., Orchard, J. W., Jomaa, M. C., et al. (2020) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2019-100755 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Treating low back pain in athletes: a systematic review with meta-analysis
Thornton, J. S., Cañeiro, J. P., Hartvigsen, J., Ardern, C. L., Vinther, A., Wilkie, K., Trease, L., Ackerman, K. E., Dane, K., McDonnell, S., et al. (2020) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2020-102723 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
To tune or not to tune, a case study of ridge logistic regression in small or sparse datasets
Šinkovec, H., Heinze, G., Blagus, R., & Geroldinger, A. (2021) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01374-y · Cited by 56 · see citing works
“Moreover, it also enables valid Bayesian inference [1, 13].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialBias in Odds Ratios From Logistic Regression Methods With Sparse Data Sets
Gosho, M., Ohigashi, T., Nagashima, K., Ito, Y., & Maruo, K. (2021) · Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.2188/jea.je20210089 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
“Greenland et al (2016) stated that the sparse data bias of OR could be more serious than the bias removed by covariate adjustment.2 However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no insightful study that has simultaneously evaluated the “sparse data bias” and “covariate omission bias.””
BackgroundLegaard, G. E., Lyngbæk, M. P. P., Almdal, T., Karstoft, K., Bennetsen, S. L., Feineis, C. S., Nielsen, N. S., Durrer, C. G., Liebetrau, B., Nystrup, U., et al. (2023) · Nature Metabolism · doi:10.1038/s42255-023-00799-7 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
“As sparsity of dichotomous outcomes (as expected for medications) invalidates the confidence intervals, exact logistic regression (exlogistic in Stata) was used when cases were 5 59,60 .”
MethodQuantification of selection bias in studies of risk factors for birth defects among livebirths
Heinke, D., Rich-Edwards, J. W., Williams, P. L., Hernández–Dı́az, S., Anderka, M., Fisher, S. C., Desrosiers, T. A., Shaw, G. M., Romitti, P. A., Canfield, M. A., et al. (2020) · Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology · doi:10.1111/ppe.12650 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Altarawneh, H. N., Chemaitelly, H. S., Ayoub, H. H., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., Yassine, H. M., Al-Khatib, H. A., Thani, A. A. A., Coyle, P. V., Kanaani, Z. A., et al. (2023) · EBioMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104734 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Malnutrition as a Risk Factor in Cleft Lip and Palate Surgery
Escher, P. J., Zavala, H., Lee, D., et al. (2020) · The Laryngoscope · doi:10.1002/lary.29209 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
“Sparse data bias can substantially bias maximum likelihood estimates of the logit model coefficients.(19)”
BackgroundSchulz, A., Specchio, N., Reyes, E. D. L., Gissen, P., Nickel, M., Trivisano, M., Aylward, S. C., Chakrapani, A., Schwering, C., Wibbeler, E., et al. (2023) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(23)00384-8 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Mansbach, W. E., & Mace, R. A. (2018) · The Gerontologist · doi:10.1093/geront/gny097 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Prevalence of suicidal behaviour among nursing and midwifery college students in Ghana
Quarshie, E. N., Cheataa-Plange, H. V., Annor, F., Asare‐Doku, W., & Lartey, J. K. S. (2019) · Nursing Open · doi:10.1002/nop2.271 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
The Impact of Workload on Operational Risk: Evidence from a Commercial Bank
Xu, Y., Tan, T. F., & Netessine, S. (2021) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.4019 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
“Even if the model converges, the estimated coefficients might be biased (Greenland et al., 2016).”
Association of Kidney Function Biomarkers with Brain MRI Findings: The BRINK Study
Vemuri, P., Knopman, D. S., Jack, C. R., Lundt, E. S., Weigand, S. D., Zuk, S. M., Thostenson, K. B., Reid, R. I., Kantarci, K., Slinin, Y., et al. (2016) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-160834 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
“This reduction in bias can often come at the cost of increased variance and model instability, but PML estimation is recommended as the most principled method to counter this problem and is an important aspect of this work [30].”
Association between early childhood caries and malnutrition in a sub-urban population in Nigeria
Foláyan, M., Arije, O., Tantawi, M. E., Kolawole, K., Obiyan, M. O., Arowolo, O., & Oziegbe, E. (2019) · BMC Pediatrics · doi:10.1186/s12887-019-1810-2 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Huynh-Van, B., Vuong-Thao, V., Huynh-Thi-Thanh, T., Dang-Xuan, S., Huynh-Van, T., Tran-To, L., Nguyen-Thi-Thao, N., Huynh-Bach, C., & Nguyen‐Viet, H. (2022) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-022-12497-2 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
“Type of vendors was treated as a predictor variable to avoid the sparseness of data (stratification would reduce the sample size, which might have negatively impacted the performance of the models) [25] and to avoid computational complexities given that we had to include, simultaneously, other covariates and confounde…”
BackgroundOn the 12th Day of Christmas, a Statistician Sent to Me . . .
Riley, R. D., Cole, T. J., Deeks, J. J., Kirkham, J. J., Morris, J., Perera, R., Wade, A. M., & Collins, P. G. S. (2022) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj-2022-072883 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Association Between Mental Health and Reproductive System Disorders in Women
Zaks, N., Batuure, A., Lin, E. S., Rommel, A., Reichenberg, A., Grice, D. E., Bergink, V., Fox, N. S., Mahjani, B., & Janecka, M. (2023) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.8685 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Lopetegi, A. M., Guasp, M., Prades, L., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(23)00463-5 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Bramante, C. T., Beckman, K. B., Mehta, T., Karger, A. B., Odde, D. J., Tignanelli, C. J., Buse, J. B., Johnson, D. M., Watson, R. H. B., Daniel, J. J., et al. (2024) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciae159 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Moghimi, M., Zabihi-Mahmoodabadi, S., Vakilabad, A. A. K., & Kargar, Z. (2019) · Europe PMC (PubMed Central) · doi:10.22074/ijfs.2019.5421 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
“Penalized logistic regression model with data augmentation was performed to compare the frequency of high-risk HPV DNA between infertile and fertile men (16).”
MethodHorsley, B. J., Tofari, P. J., Halson, S. L., Kemp, J. G., Dickson, J., Maniar, N., & Cormack, S. J. (2021) · Sports Medicine · doi:10.1007/s40279-021-01443-8 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Berenguer, J., Díez, C., Martin‐Vicente, M., Micán, R., Pérez-Elı́as, M. J., García-Fraile, L. J., Vidal, F., Suárez‐García, I., Podzamczer, D., Romero, J. D., et al. (2021) · Clinical Microbiology and Infection · doi:10.1016/j.cmi.2021.06.023 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Reid, S. A., Farbenblum, J., & McLeod, S. (2021) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2020-103470 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
How street greenery facilitates active travel for university students
Bai, Y., Cao, M., Wang, R., Liu, Y., & Wang, S. (2022) · Journal of Transport & Health · doi:10.1016/j.jth.2022.101393 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
“’ To avoid sparse data bias (Greenland et al., 2016), we recorded this variable as a binary variable rather than a scale variable, for which a response of ‘Yes ’ was recorded as 1 and ‘No ’ was recorded as 0.”
Methods matter: population attributable fraction (PAF) in sport and exercise medicine
Khosravi, A., Nielsen, R. O., & Mansournia, M. A. (2020) · British Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1136/bjsports-2020-101977 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Greenland, S., Mansournia, M. A., & Altman, D. G.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2016-04-27
- Volume
- 352
- Pages
- i1981
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2343557095
- Semantic Scholar
- 30977540a580178337ada4e9b42e3df884bb51ce
- Cited by
- 898
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 77 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 92 · 2023: 94 · 2022: 82 · 2021: 98 · 2020: 99 · 2019: 80 · 2018: 75 · 2017: 109 · 2016: 8
- FWCI
- 91.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Inference
- Keywords
- relative risk, odds ratio, rate ratios, confounding adjustment
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Bias, Likelihood Functions, Odds Ratio, Outcome Assessment, Health Care, Sample Size, Risk Assessment, Quality Improvement
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