Physical inactivity is associated with a higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes: a study in 48 440 adult patients
Abstract
Objectives: To compare hospitalisation rates, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and mortality for patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive, doing some activity or consistently meeting physical activity guidelines. Methods: We identified 48 440 adult patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis from 1 January 2020 to 21 October 2020, with at least three exercise vital sign measurements from 19 March 2018 to 18 March 2020. We linked each patient’s self-reported physical activity category (consistently inactive=0–10 min/week, some activity=11–149 min/week, consistently meeting guidelines=150+ min/week) to the risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission and death after COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted multivariable logistic regression controlling for demographics and known risk factors to assess whether inactivity was associated with COVID-19 outcomes. Results: Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines. Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32), admission to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) due to COVID-19 than patients who were doing some physical activity. Conclusions: Consistently meeting physical activity guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes among infected adults. We recommend efforts to promote physical activity be prioritised by public health agencies and incorporated into routine medical care.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In 48,440 adults with COVID-19, consistently meeting physical activity guidelines before diagnosis was associated with lower odds of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death compared with being consistently inactive. Physical inactivity was a stronger risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes than most chronic conditions and modifiable risk factors studied, except age and organ transplant history.
Key findings
- Among the cohort, 8.6% were hospitalized, 2.4% were admitted to the ICU, and 1.6% died after COVID-19 diagnosis.
- Compared with consistently meeting physical activity guidelines, consistently inactive patients had higher adjusted odds of hospitalization (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), ICU admission (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55), and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67).
- Compared with patients doing some activity, consistently inactive patients also had higher adjusted odds of hospitalization (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60); ICU admission was not statistically significant (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29).
- Doing some activity was associated with higher odds of severe outcomes than consistently meeting guidelines: hospitalization OR 1.89 (95% CI 1.53 to 2.33), ICU admission OR 1.58 (95% CI 1.10 to 2.27), and death OR 1.88 (95% CI 1.02 to 3.47).
Methods
- Retrospective observational study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California among 48,440 adults aged 18 years and older with a positive COVID-19 test or diagnosis from 1 January 2020 to 21 October 2020, continuously enrolled for at least 6 months before diagnosis, and with at least three outpatient exercise vital sign (EVS) measurements from 19 March 2018 to 19 March 2020.
- Physical activity categories were based on EVS: consistently inactive (0–10 min/week at all assessments), some activity (11–149 min/week or variable measures), and consistently meeting guidelines (150+ min/week at all assessments).
- Multivariable logistic regression estimated odds ratios for hospitalization, ICU admission, and death, adjusting for demographics and CDC-defined risk factors/comorbidities including age, sex, race/ethnicity, obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, COPD, renal disease, cancer, smoking, hypertension, pregnancy, and recent emergency or inpatient encounters.
Limitations
- The paper states that physical activity was self-reported and did not measure exercise intensity beyond the threshold of “moderate to strenuous exercise (like a brisk walk).”
- The paper states that the observational design precludes definitive causal conclusions; associations could be in reverse, and residual confounding, unmeasured confounders, or measurement error may remain.
- The paper notes potential sparse data in some variables, such as the 80+ age category in the death model (OR 27.31; 95% CI 20.50 to 36.38), and that some confounders are time-varying and may not continuously reflect information recorded during patient interviews.
- Evident from the text: the study was conducted in a single integrated healthcare system in Southern California, and physical activity was assessed only before the pandemic/diagnosis, so generalizability and the role of activity changes during the pandemic are not established by these data.
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- Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 5
Among COVID-19 patients, doing some physical activity was associated with higher odds of ICU admission compared with consistently meeting physical activity guidelines (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.27).
“Patients who were doing some activity had 1.58 greater odds for ICU admission (95% CI 1.10 to 2.27) than those who were consistently meeting PA guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 6
Consistently inactive patients had 2.49 times greater odds of death from COVID-19 compared with patients consistently meeting physical activity guidelines (OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67).
“The odds of death were 2.49 times greater (95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) for patients who were consistently inactive compared with patients who were consistently meeting PA guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 6
Consistently inactive patients had greater risk of death than patients doing some physical activity (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60).
“Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) than patients who were only doing some activity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ ABSTRACT · p. 2
Among COVID-19 patients, being consistently inactive was associated with higher odds of hospitalisation compared with consistently meeting physical activity guidelines (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83).
“Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6
Doing only some physical activity provided substantially higher odds for all COVID-19 adverse outcomes than consistently meeting physical activity guidelines.
“However, doing only some activity provided substantially higher odds for all COVID-19 adverse outcomes than consistently meeting PA guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 5
Other than age, pregnancy and a history of organ transplant, being consistently inactive conferred the highest odds for hospitalisation with COVID-19.
“Other than age, pregnancy and a history of organ transplant, being consistently inactive conferred the highest odds for hospitalisation with COVID-19.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ RESULTS · p. 3
The analytical cohort comprised 48,440 patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis and three or more exercise vital sign measurements within the 2 years prior to the California pandemic lockdown on 18 March 2020.
“Among these, 48 440 patients had three or more EVS measurements within the 2 years prior to the California pandemic lockdown on 18 March 2020, which comprised the analytical cohort for this study (see figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 5
Among COVID-19 patients, doing some physical activity was associated with higher odds of hospitalisation compared with consistently meeting physical activity guidelines (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.53 to 2.33).
“Those who were doing some activity had 1.89 times greater odds of hospitalisation (95% CI 1.53 to 2.33) than those who were consistently meeting PA guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 5
Among COVID-19 patients, being consistently inactive was associated with higher odds of ICU admission compared with doing some physical activity (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29), though this was not statistically significant.
“Patients who were consistently inactive also appeared to have greater odds of being admitted to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) than patients who were doing some activity, though this was not statistically significant.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6
Compared with consistently inactive patients, those in the some activity category had lower odds for hospitalisation and death.
“When compared with consistently inactive patients, those in the some activity category had lower odds for hospitalisation and death, suggesting any amount of PA may have benefit.”
- Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · p. 8 · plain
“Even activity levels that did not meet the PA guidelines were significantly associated with reduced odds of hospitalisation and death.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · p. 8 · plain
- Findingown data§ ABSTRACT · p. 2
Among COVID-19 patients, being consistently inactive was associated with higher odds of ICU admission compared with consistently meeting physical activity guidelines (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55).
“Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6
The magnitude of risk for all outcomes associated with being consistently inactive exceeded the odds of smoking and virtually all chronic diseases and risk behaviours studied.
“The magnitude of risk for all outcomes associated with being consistently inactive exceeded the odds of smoking and virtually all the chronic diseases studied in this analysis, indicating physical inactivity may play a crucial role as a risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 7 · hedged
“The ORs for the consistently inactive group were larger than those for almost all the chronic conditions and risk behaviours in the models, so PA may be the most important modifiable risk factor for severe COVID19.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 7 · hedged
- Findingown data§ ABSTRACT · p. 2
Among COVID-19 patients, being consistently inactive was associated with higher odds of death compared with consistently meeting physical activity guidelines (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67).
“Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 6
Patients doing some physical activity had 1.88 times greater odds of death than those consistently meeting physical activity guidelines (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02 to 3.47).
“Patients who were doing some activity had 1.88 times greater odds (95% CI 1.02 to 3.47) of death than those who were consistently meeting PA guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6
Among patients with COVID-19 in a large integrated healthcare system, meeting physical activity guidelines prior to infection was associated with reduced odds of hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death.
“Prior PA meeting current guidelines was associated with reduced odds for hospitalisation, ICU admission and death among patients with COVID-19 enrolled in a large integrated healthcare system.”
- Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · p. 8 · boosted
“We found that consistently meeting PA guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced odds for severe COVID-19 among infected adults.”
- Also stated in: § What are the findings? · p. 8 · plain
“Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive during the 2 years preceding the pandemic were more likely to be hospitalised, admitted to the intensive care unit and die than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · p. 8 · boosted
- Findingown data§ ABSTRACT · p. 2
Among COVID-19 patients, being consistently inactive was associated with higher odds of hospitalisation compared with doing some physical activity (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32).
“Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32), admission to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) due to COVID-19 than patients who were doing some physical activity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ ABSTRACT · p. 2
Among COVID-19 patients, being consistently inactive was associated with higher odds of death compared with doing some physical activity (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60).
“Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32), admission to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) due to COVID-19 than patients who were doing some physical activity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ INTRODUCTION · p. 2
Regular physical activity could play an important role in mitigating the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“These are mechanisms by which regular PA could play an important role in mitigating the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to its beneficial effects on multiple chronic diseases.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 7
Physical inactivity was the strongest risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes across all outcomes compared with commonly cited modifiable risk factors, other than advanced age and a history of organ transplant.
“The ORs for the consistently inactive group were larger than those for almost all the chronic conditions and risk behaviours in the models, so PA may be the most important modifiable risk factor for severe COVID19.”
- Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · p. 8 · plain
“In fact, physical inactivity was the strongest risk factor across all outcomes, compared with the commonly cited modifiable risk factors, including smoking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and cancer.”
- Also stated in: § What are the findings? · p. 8 · plain
“Other than advanced age and a history of organ transplant, physical inactivity was the strongest risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · p. 8 · plain
- Interpretationown data§ ABSTRACT · p. 2
Consistently meeting physical activity guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes among infected adults.
“Consistently meeting physical activity guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes among infected adults.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ INTRODUCTION · p. 2
Immune function improves with regular physical activity.
“It is well known that immune function improves with regular PA, and those who are regularly active have a lower incidence, intensity of symptoms and mortality from various viral infections. 7-9”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [7] Nieman, 2019, The compelling link between physical activity and the body's defense system, J Sport Health Sci source
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- cites [8] da Silveira, 2021, Physical exercise as a tool to help the immune system against COVID-19: an integrative review of the current literature, Clin Exp Med source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [9] Burtscher J , Millet GP , Burtscher M . Low cardiorespiratory and mitochondrial fitness as risk factors in viral infections: implications for COVID-19. British Journal of sports medicine (Published Online First: 24 November 2020). source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6
Physical inactivity may play a crucial role as a risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes.
“The magnitude of risk for all outcomes associated with being consistently inactive exceeded the odds of smoking and virtually all the chronic diseases studied in this analysis, indicating physical inactivity may play a crucial role as a risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6
Any amount of physical activity may have benefit.
“When compared with consistently inactive patients, those in the some activity category had lower odds for hospitalisation and death, suggesting any amount of PA may have benefit.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7
The assessment of physical activity used in this study has previously been validated.
“However, this assessment of PA has previously been validated, 18 19”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Study design and conductreasoning§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7
Because this is an observational study, it is not possible to definitively conclude that physical activity is causally related to less severe COVID-19 outcomes.
“Importantly, because this is an observational study, it is not possible to definitively conclude PA is causally related to less severe COVID-19 outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7
A single EVS assessment obtained up to 2 years prior to accelerometry monitoring for 7 days yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for meeting US Physical Activity Guidelines or not of 67%, 68%, 61% and 73%, respectively.
“As an example of validity results, a single EVS assessment obtained up to 2 years prior to accelerometry monitoring for 7 days yielded sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values for meeting US Physical Activity Guidelines or not of 67%, 68%, 61% and 73%, respectively. 24”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [24] Ref Kuntz J , Young DR , Saelens BE . Validity of the exercise vital sign tool to assess physical activity. Am J Prev Med.
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- Premisecitation§ Strengths and limitations · p. 8
Confounder imprecision does not bias the target estimator, that is, the association of physical activity on severe COVID-19 outcomes.
“However, confounder imprecision does not bias the target estimator, that is, the association of PA on severe COVID-19 outcomes. 29”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] source
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- Study design and conductown data§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7
An additional strength is the demographic diversity of the study sample, including almost 65% patients of Hispanic descent.
“An additional strength is the demographic diversity of the study sample, including almost 65% patients of Hispanic descent.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 24
- May combine two claims. 11
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown data§ RESULTS · p. 3The majority of patients (61.2%) in the cohort had five or more exercise vital sign measures in the 2-year time frame.
“The majority of patients (61.2%) in our cohort had five or more EVS measures in that 2- year time frame (see online supplemental table).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown data§ Demographics · p. 4Among all patients with COVID-19, 8.6% were hospitalised, 2.4% were admitted to the ICU, and 1.6% died.
“Among all patients with COVID-19, 8.6% were hospitalised, 2.4% were admitted to the ICU and 1.6% died (table 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Findingnone given§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6Pregnant patients with COVID-19 had a much lower risk of death.
“In fact, pregnant patients with COVID-19 had a much lower risk of death.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown data§ Outcomes and adjusted analyses · p. 6The odds of death for consistently inactive patients was robust and in most instances higher than the odds of other COVID-19 risk factors.
“Odds of death for consistently inactive patients was robust, and in most instances was higher than the odds of other COVID-19 risk factors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ INTRODUCTION · p. 2The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has identified risk factors for severe COVID-19, including advanced age, male sex, and underlying comorbidities such as diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease.
“The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has identified risk factors for severe COVID19, including advanced age, sex (male) and the presence of underlying comorbidities, such as diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease. 1”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . COVID-19 people of any age with underlying medical conditions. Available: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html [Accessed 20 Dec 2020].
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Interpretationreasoning§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 6The elevated hospitalisation rate for pregnant patients is due to all being admitted to hospital to deliver their baby and likely does not suggest an increased risk for severe COVID-19-related hospitalisations.
“It should be noted that the elevated hospitalisation rate for pregnant patients is due to the fact that all are admitted to the hospital to deliver their baby, and likely does not suggest an increased risk for severe COVID-19- related hospitalisations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: All pregnant patients are admitted to hospital to deliver their baby, so the elevated hospitalisation rate for pregnant patients does not indicate increased risk for severe COVID-19-related hospitalisations.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Premisecitation§ INTRODUCTION · p. 2A lack of physical activity is a well-documented underlying risk factor for multiple chronic diseases, including those associated with severe COVID-19.
“a lack of PA is a well- documented underlying risk factor for multiple chronic diseases, including those associated with severe COVID-19. 1 2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 1 2
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Study design and conductreasoning§ Study cohort · p. 3Requiring at least three outpatient exercise vital sign measurements between 19 March 2018 and 19 March 2020 increased the likelihood that the assessment captured regular physical activity habits.
“We required patients to have at least three outpatient visits with an exercise vital sign (EVS) measure between 19 March 2018 and 19 March 2020 to increase the likelihood that the assessment captured regular PA habits.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ PA goals · p. 7The US Physical Activity Guidelines established a goal of 150 minutes per week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity to maximise health benefits.
“The US Physical Activity Guidelines established a goal of 150 min/ week of MVPA (like a brisk walk) to maximise health benefits. 3”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] source
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May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ INTRODUCTION · p. 2Regular physical activity reduces the risk of systemic inflammation, which is a main contributor to lung damage caused by COVID-19.
“Regular PA reduces the risk of systemic inflammation, which is a main contributor to lung damage caused by COVID-19. 10”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] Sallis, 2020, An international physical activity and public health research agenda to inform coronavirus disease-2019 policies and practices, J Sport Health Sci source
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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown data§ ABSTRACT · p. 2The analysis used multivariable logistic regression controlling for demographics and known risk factors to assess whether inactivity was associated with COVID-19 outcomes.
“We conducted multivariable logistic regression controlling for demographics and known risk factors to assess whether inactivity was associated with COVID-19 outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Original research · p. 3Kaiser Permanente Southern California's racial/ethnic make-up, neighbourhood education and household income are generally similar to the area population.
“Racial/ethnic make- up, neighbourhood education and household income are generally similar to the area population. 17”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [17] source
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Study design and conductcitation§ Exercise vital sign · p. 3The exercise vital sign has been shown to have good face and discriminant validity.
“The EVS has been shown to have good face and discriminant validity. 18 19”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 18 19
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Study design and conductcitation§ Data analysis · p. 3Covariates included age, sex, race, and underlying medical conditions associated with increased risk for severe COVID-19 as defined by the CDC.
“Covariates included age, sex and race, along with underlying medical conditions associated with increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19 as defined by the CDC. 2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . About chronic diseases. Available: https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/about/index.htm [Accessed 20 Dec 2020].
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Premisecitation§ INTRODUCTION · p. 2The US Physical Activity Guidelines call for all adults to engage in at least 150 min/week of moderate to vigorous physical activity.
“The US Physical Activity Guidelines call for all adults to engage in at least 150 min/week of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). 3”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] source
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May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ INTRODUCTION · p. 2Regularly active individuals have a lower incidence, symptom intensity, and mortality from various viral infections.
“It is well known that immune function improves with regular PA, and those who are regularly active have a lower incidence, intensity of symptoms and mortality from various viral infections. 7-9”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [7] Nieman, 2019, The compelling link between physical activity and the body's defense system, J Sport Health Sci source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [8] da Silveira, 2021, Physical exercise as a tool to help the immune system against COVID-19: an integrative review of the current literature, Clin Exp Med source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [9] Burtscher J , Millet GP , Burtscher M . Low cardiorespiratory and mitochondrial fitness as risk factors in viral infections: implications for COVID-19. British Journal of sports medicine (Published Online First: 24 November 2020). source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 7The reported odds ratios for physical inactivity are likely conservative, and the association of physical activity with negative COVID-19 outcomes may be larger than indicated by the estimates.
“The reported ORs for physical inactivity are strong but likely conservative, because the models are adjusted for several chronic conditions that benefit from PA and increase the risk for severe COVID-19.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 7 · hedged
“For instance, because physical inactivity is associated with higher BMI and greater risk of diabetes, both comorbidities associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, the association of PA with negative COVID-19 outcomes may be larger than indicated by our estimates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Physical inactivity is associated with higher BMI and greater risk of diabetes, and both comorbidities are associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes.
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 7 · hedged
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone given§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7The study's main strength is the large number of patients with COVID-19 with serial assessment of prediagnosis physical activity levels.
“The study's main strength is the large number of patients with COVID-19 with serial assessment of prediagnosis PA levels.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ DISCUSSION Main findings · p. 7A UK study found that adults with chronic conditions were most likely to report reducing their physical activity due to the COVID-19 lockdown.
“Although data on PA during the COVID-19 pandemic are scarce, a study from the UK found adults with chronic conditions were most likely to report reducing their PA due to the COVID-19 lockdown. 20”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] Rogers, 2020, Behavioral change towards reduced intensity physical activity is disproportionately prevalent among adults with serious health issues or Self-Perception of high risk during the UK COVID-19 Lockdown, Front Public Health source
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Study design and conductown data§ Strengths and limitations · p. 8Other limitations include the potential for sparse data in some of the variables.
“Other limitations include the potential for sparse data in some of the variables.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown data§ Strengths and limitations · p. 8The odds ratio for physical activity and death outcomes in the highest age category resulted in high odds ratios and wider confidence intervals.
“For example, the OR for PA and death outcomes in the highest age category resulted in high ORs and wider CIs.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7Another important strength is the ability to adjust for a wide range of demographic and health variables included in the EHR system.
“Another important strength is the ability to adjust for a wide range of demographic and health variables that are included in the EHR system.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone given§ Strengths and limitations · p. 8Some of the confounders are time varying and may not continuously reflect the information recorded during patient interviews.
“In addition, some of the confounders are time varying and may not continuously reflect the information recorded during patient interviews.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7A final strength is that the COVID-19 outcomes measured were objective and indicative of COVID-19 severity.
“A final strength is the COVID-19 outcomes measured were objective and indicative of COVID-19 severity.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone given§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7The main limitations of this study are that the measure of physical activity was self-reported and there was no measure of exercise intensity beyond the threshold of moderate to strenuous exercise.
“The main limitations of this study are that the measure of PA was self- reported and there was no measure of the intensity of exercise beyond the threshold of 'moderate to strenuous exercise (like a brisk walk)'.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoning§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7There is also the potential issue of residual confounding due to unmeasured confounders or measurement error.
“There is also the potential issue of residual confounding due to unmeasured confounders or measurement error.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7Many studies have demonstrated numerous strong benefits from physical activity, especially among those who suffer from a variety of chronic diseases.
“However, many studies have demonstrated numerous strong benefits from PA, especially among those who suffer from a variety of chronic diseases. 25-28”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [25] Pedersen, 2015, Exercise as medicine - evidence for prescribing exercise as therapy in 26 different chronic diseases, Scand J Med Sci Sports source
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- cites [26] source
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- cites [27] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] Katzmarzyk, 2021, Physical inactivity and non-communicable disease burden in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries, Br J Sports Med
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown data§ Strengths and limitations · p. 8The 80+ age confounder variable in the death regression has an OR of 27.31 and a wide CI (20.50 to 36.38), suggesting a sparse data problem.
“The 80+ age confounder variable in the death regression has an OR of 27.31 and a wide CI (20.50 to 36.38), suggesting that there may be a sparse data problem (and perhaps for other confounding variables).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ PA goals · p. 7On average, Americans have at least 4-6 hours each day of leisure time, the majority of which is devoted to sedentary activities, particularly electronic media.
“Other studies have shown that on average, Americans have at least 4-6 hours each day of leisure time, the majority of which is devoted to sedentary activities, particularly electronic media. 21”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] Sturm, 2019, Free time and physical activity among Americans 15 years or older: cross-sectional analysis of the American time use survey, Prev Chronic Dis source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoning§ Strengths and limitations · p. 7The observed associations could potentially be in reverse, with those who have more significant underlying illness being less likely to include physical activity in their daily routine or lacking the capacity to do so.
“These associations could potentially be in reverse; that is, those who have more significant underlying illness may be less likely to include PA in their daily routine or lack the capacity to do so.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
There are no data regarding the effect of regular physical activity on COVID-19 outcomes.
“However, there are no data regarding the effect of regular physical activity (PA) on COVID-19 outcomes, even though a lack of PA is a well- documented underlying risk factor for multiple chronic diseases, including those associated with severe COVID-19. 1 2”
The paper relies on this without support.
Physical inactivity is associated with higher BMI and greater risk of diabetes, and both comorbidities are associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes.
“For instance, because physical inactivity is associated with higher BMI and greater risk of diabetes, both comorbidities associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, the association of PA with negative COVID-19 outcomes may be larger than indicated by our estimates.”
The paper relies on this without support.
All pregnant patients are admitted to hospital to deliver their baby, so the elevated hospitalisation rate for pregnant patients does not indicate increased risk for severe COVID-19-related hospitalisations.
“It should be noted that the elevated hospitalisation rate for pregnant patients is due to the fact that all are admitted to the hospital to deliver their baby, and likely does not suggest an increased risk for severe COVID-19- related hospitalisations.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Use of three or more EVS measures allows for improved estimates of physical activity and identification of patients with consistently high and low physical activity patterns.
“However, this assessment of PA has previously been validated, 18 19 and the use of three or more EVS measures allowed for improved estimates of PA and the identification of patients with consistently high and low PA patterns.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Physical activity was strongly associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 complications among infected adults.
“Physical activity was also strongly associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 complications among infected adults [24,25,26].”
From The Effect of Vinyasa Yoga Practice on the Well-Being of Breast-Cancer Patients during COVID-19 Pandemic (2023) · cites this paper as [25]
Physical inactivity is associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.
“physical inactivity is associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes5.”
From Exerkines in health, resilience and disease (2022) · cites this paper as [5]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
ICU admission percentage differs from the reported count
MinorThe stated 2.4% ICU admission rate does not match table 2: 1199 of 48 440 patients is about 2.5% to one decimal place.
Reported 2.4 · recomputed 2.475227
“Among all patients with COVID-19, 8.6% were hospitalised, 2.4% were admitted to the ICU and 1.6% died (table 2).”
Hospitalisation percentage differs from the reported count
MinorThe stated 8.6% hospitalisation rate does not match table 2: 4236 of 48 440 patients is about 8.7% to one decimal place.
Reported 8.6 · recomputed 8.744839
“Among all patients with COVID-19, 8.6% were hospitalised, 2.4% were admitted to the ICU and 1.6% died (table 2).”
ICU comparison is called significant despite a nonsignificant interval
MinorThe results say inactivity produced significantly higher odds for all three outcomes relative to doing some activity. Later, they explicitly say the ICU comparison was not statistically significant; its reported 95% CI is 0.93 to 1.29.
“being consistently inactive resulted in significantly higher odds for the three outcomes compared with being either consistently meeting PA guidelines or doing some activity”
“Patients who were consistently inactive also appeared to have greater odds of being admitted to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) than patients who were doing some activity, though this was not statistically significant.”
Hospitalisation confidence interval has two different lower bounds
MinorThe results text gives a lower 95% confidence bound of 1.18 for the inactivity-hospitalisation odds ratio, whereas the abstract gives 1.81 for the same estimate.
“Being consistently inactive increased the odds of hospitalisation 2.26- fold (95% CI 1.18 to 2.83)”
“hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83)”
The activity-guideline cutoff excludes exactly 150 minutes in one definition
MinorThe abstract includes 150 min/week in the consistently meeting-guidelines category, but the methods specify greater than 150 min/week. These definitions classify someone reporting exactly 150 min/week differently.
“consistently meeting guidelines=150+ min/week”
“consistently meeting guidelines (EVS >150 min/week at all assessments during the study period)”
Cites
World Health Organization 2020 guidelines on physical activity and sedentary behaviour
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The Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans
Piercy, K. L., Troiano, R. P., Ballard, R. M., Carlson, S. A., Fulton, J. E., Galuska, D. A., George, S. M., & Olson, R. D. (2018) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2018.14854 · Cited by 9,755 · see citing works
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Exercise as medicine - evidence for prescribing exercise as therapy in 26 different chronic diseases
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Role of Built Environments in Physical Activity, Obesity, and Cardiovascular Disease
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Self-citationThe compelling link between physical activity and the body's defense system
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Sparse data bias: a problem hiding in plain sight
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da Silveira, M. P., da Silva Fagundes, K. K., Bizuti, M. R., Starck, É., Rossi, R. C., & de Resende e Silva, D. T. (2021) · Clinical and Experimental Medicine · doi:10.1007/s10238-020-00650-3 · Cited by 475 · see citing works
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Initial Validation of an Exercise “Vital Sign” in Electronic Medical Records
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The Impact of COVID-19 on Public Space: A Review of the Emerging QuestionsPreprint
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Validity of the Exercise Vital Sign Tool to Assess Physical Activity
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
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Exerkines in health, resilience and disease
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- Authors
- Sallis, R., Young, D. R., Tartof, S. Y., Sallis, J. F., Sall, J., Li, Q., Smith, G. N., & Cohen, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Kaiser Permanente (US)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Kaiser Permanente Fontana Medical Center (US)
- Pomona College (US)
- Corresponding author
- Sallis, Robert
- ORCID
- Venue
- British Journal of Sports Medicine
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2021-04-13
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 1099-1105
- ISSN
- 0306-3674 (ISSN-L)
- 1473-0480
- OpenAlex
- W3156459939
- Semantic Scholar
- 1052835e1caf26032fc0bd997259cd3f584259c7
- Cited by
- 789
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 31 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 98 · 2023: 203 · 2022: 257 · 2021: 145
- FWCI
- 55.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- British Journal of Sports Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Kaiser Permanente
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Physical Activity and Health
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- physical inactivity, COVID-19 pandemic, physical activity guidelines, hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, COVID-19 mortality, physical activity promotion, severe COVID-19 outcomes
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Hospitalization, Humans, Intensive Care Units, Male, Middle Aged, Sedentary Behavior
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.
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