Recent trends in life expectancy across high income countries: retrospective observational study
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OBJECTIVES: To assess whether declines in life expectancy occurred across high income countries during 2014-16, to identify the causes of death contributing to these declines, and to examine the extent to which these declines were driven by shared or differing factors across countries. DESIGN: Demographic analysis using aggregated data. SETTING: Vital statistics systems of 18 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. PARTICIPANTS: 18 countries with high quality all cause and cause specific mortality data available in 2014-16. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Life expectancy at birth, 0-65 years, and 65 or more years and cause of death contributions to changes in life expectancy at birth. RESULTS: The majority of high income countries in the study experienced declines in life expectancy during 2014-15; of the 18 countries, 12 experienced declines in life expectancy among women and 11 experienced declines in life expectancy among men. The average decline was 0.21 years for women and 0.18 years for men. In most countries experiencing declines in life expectancy, these declines were predominantly driven by trends in older age (≥65 years) mortality and in deaths related to respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, nervous system disease, and mental disorders. In the United States, declines in life expectancy were more concentrated at younger ages (0-65 years), and drug overdose and other external causes of death played important roles in driving these declines. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the countries that experienced declines in life expectancy during 2014-15 experienced robust gains in life expectancy during 2015-16 that more than compensated for the declines. However, the United Kingdom and the United States appear to be experiencing stagnating or continued declines in life expectancy, raising questions about future trends in these countries.
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The slowdown in the United States has exceeded that of all other high-income countries, widening the US shortfall in life expectancy relative to its peers.
“Nonetheless, the slowdown in the United States has exceeded that of all other high-income countries, resulting in a significant widening of the US shortfall in life expectancy relative to its peers (5–7).”
From Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics (2026) · cites this paper as [5]
The year 2015 was already an exceptionally bad year for life expectancy due to an irregularly strong flu season.
“which was already an exceptionally bad year for life expectancy due to an irregularly strong flu season.”
From Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries (2022) · cites this paper as [13]
The 2014-2015 strong flu season was regarded as an exceptionally bad year among high-income countries, causing drops in life expectancy.
“To put this into perspective, the 2014–2015 strong flu season was regarded as an exceptionally bad year among high-income countries, causing drops in life expectancy.13”
From Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries (2022) · cites this paper as [13]
The findings reflect a deepening during the pandemic of the US mid-life mortality crisis that has led to the stalling of life expectancy in recent years.
“our findings reflect a deepening during the pandemic of the US mid-life mortality crisis that has led to the stalling of life expectancy in recent years.13,14,46”
From Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries (2022) · cites this paper as [13]
The largest drop in life expectancy during the 2014-2015 flu season was observed in Italy with a loss of around half a year among males and females.
“The largest drop was observed in Italy with a loss of around half a year among males and females.”
From Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries (2022) · cites this paper as [13]
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- Authors
- Ho, J. Y., & Hendi, A. S.
- Affiliations
- University of Southern California (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ho, Jessica Y
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2018-08-15
- Volume
- 362
- Pages
- k2562
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- 0959-8138
- PMC
- PMC6092679
- OpenAlex
- W2887239822
- Cited by
- 439
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 62 · 2023: 66 · 2022: 66 · 2021: 66 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 57 · 2018: 10
- FWCI
- 99.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2018-08-22)
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R00HD083519, P2CHD047879)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Keywords
- life expectancy decline, high-income countries, cause-specific mortality, drug overdose, respiratory mortality, cardiovascular mortality, sex differences in longevity, United States, United Kingdom, mortality trends
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Retrospective Studies, Developed Countries, Young Adult
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