US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths
Open accessAbstract
After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, outpacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes—a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.
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More recent evidence indicated that stagnating declines in cardiovascular disease mortality have been the main driver of the US life expectancy stall.
“More recent evidence indicated that stagnating declines in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been the main driver of the life expectancy stall (14).”
From Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics (2026) · cites this paper as [14]
The findings reflect a deepening during the pandemic of the US mid-life mortality crisis that has led to the stalling of life expectancy in recent years.
“our findings reflect a deepening during the pandemic of the US mid-life mortality crisis that has led to the stalling of life expectancy in recent years.13,14,46”
From Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries (2022) · cites this paper as [14]
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Self-citationInsights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics
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“More recent evidence indicated that stagnating declines in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been the main driver of the life expectancy stall (14).”
Self-citation
- Authors
- Mehta, N. K., Abrams, L. R., & Myrskylä, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Myrskylä, Mikko
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-03-16
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 13
- Pages
- 6998-7000
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7132127
- OpenAlex
- W3010657346
- Cited by
- 240
- References
- 17
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 54.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- HHS | NIH | National Institute on Aging (R03AG060404, 2T32AG027708-06A1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Keywords
- life expectancy, cardiovascular mortality, drug overdose deaths, causes of death, sex differences in mortality, high-income countries, United States mortality trends
- MeSH terms
- Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, United States, Drug Overdose
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