Beyond the numbers: understanding the diversity of covid-19 epidemiology and response in South Asia
Open accessAbstract
Zulfiqar A Bhutta and colleagues compare the response in South Asian countries and consider what is needed to contain covid-19 and manage future pandemics
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The Delta variant was first identified in Maharashtra, India, in October 2020 and is now found in more than 100 nations.
“The Delta (G/478 K.V1; B.1.617.2) variant, first identified in Maharashtra, India, in October 2020, is now found to be the dominant lineage detected in more than 100 nations and declared as VOC by the WHO on May 11, 2021 [74].”
From Waves and variants of SARS-CoV-2: understanding the causes and effect of the COVID-19 catastrophe (2022) · cites this paper as [74]
The 'How robust are the data?' section identifies Delta as B.1.617.2 and links its emergence and spread to India's spring 2021 surge. It does not say Delta was first identified in Maharashtra in October 2020 or found in more than 100 nations; it also does not substantiate the citing sentence's WHO designation date. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe Delta variant is described as the dominant lineage in more than 100 countries and as driving the second wave in India.
“The Delta (G/478 K.V1; B.1.617.2) variant, first identified in Maharashtra, India, in October 2020, is now found to be the dominant lineage detected in more than 100 nations and declared as VOC by the WHO on May 11, 2021 [74]. Delta strain drives the second wave in India, where almost 4-lakh cases were reported per day.”
From Waves and variants of SARS-CoV-2: understanding the causes and effect of the COVID-19 catastrophe (2022) · cites this paper as [74]
In “How robust are the data?” (page not specified), the paper relates India’s spring 2021 surge to the emergence and spread of Delta, supporting the second-wave point. It does not say Delta was the dominant lineage in more than 100 countries; the claim also states the variant’s role in India more categorically than the paper does. (LLM, conf=0.87)
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Cites
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Self-citationRoberton, T., Carter, E. D., Chou, V. B., Stegmuller, A. R., Jackson, B. D., Tam, Y., Sawadogo‐Lewis, T., & Walker, N. (2020) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30229-1 · Cited by 1,406 · see citing works
Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker
Hale, T. N., & Webster, S. (2020) · Cited by 1,184 · see citing works
Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in India
Murhekar, M. V., Bhatnagar, T., Selvaraju, S., Rade, K., Saravanakumar, V., Thangaraj, J. W. V., Kumar, M. S., Shah, N. K., Sabarinathan, R., Turuk, A., et al. (2020) · The Indian Journal of Medical Research · doi:10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_3290_20 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures
Gentilini, U., Almenfi, M. B. A., Iyengar, T., Okamura, Y., Downes, J. A., Dale, P., Weber, M., Newhouse, D., Alas, C. P. R., Kamran, M., et al. (2022) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/37186 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Covid-19: Delta variant is now UK’s most dominant strain and spreading through schools
Torjesen, I. (2021) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.n1445 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in slums versus non-slums in Mumbai, India
Malani, A., Shah, D., Kang, G., Lobo, G. N., Shastri, J. S., Mohanan, M., Jain, R. K., Agrawal, S. R., Juneja, S., Imad, S., et al. (2020) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30467-8 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?
Doshi, P. (2020) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.m3563 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Shirin, T., Bhuiyan, T. R., Charles, R. C., et al. (2020) · International Journal of Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1484 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
The Enigma of Low COVID-19 Fatality Rate in India
Samaddar, A., Gadepalli, R., Nag, V. L., & Misra, S. (2020) · Frontiers in Genetics · doi:10.3389/fgene.2020.00854 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Zarei, L., Shahabi, S., Sadati, A. K., Tabrizi, R., Heydari, S. T., & Lankarani, K. B. (2021) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-021-10722-y · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Analysis of COVID-19 burden, epidemiology and mitigation strategies in Muslim majority countries
Jardine, R., Wright, J., Samad, Z. Z., et al. (2020) · Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal · doi:10.26719/emhj.20.120 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
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Balancing science and public policy in Pakistan’s COVID-19 response
Bhutta, Z. A., Sultan, F., Ikram, A., et al. (2021) · Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal · doi:10.26719/emhj.21.016 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationCOVID-19 vaccine: Risk of inequality and failure of public health strategies
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Waves and variants of SARS-CoV-2: understanding the causes and effect of the COVID-19 catastrophe
Thakur, V., Bhola, S., Thakur, P., Patel, S. K. S., Kulshrestha, S., Ratho, R. K., & Kumar, P. (2022) · Infection · doi:10.1007/s15010-021-01734-2 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bhutta, Z. A., Siddiqi, S., Hafeez, A., Islam, M., Nundy, S., Qadri, F., & Sultan, F.
- Affiliations
- Aga Khan University (PK)
- Health Services Academy (PK)
- Hospital for Sick Children (CA)
- Sir Ganga Ram Hospital (IN)
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (BD)
- Ministry of National Health Services Regulation and Coordination (PK)
- Corresponding author
- Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2021-06-25
- Volume
- 373
- Pages
- n1544
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3173743723
- Cited by
- 22
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 6
- FWCI
- 1.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eCommons - AKU (Aga Khan University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Legal, Health, Environmental and COVID-19 Challenges
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, epidemiology, pandemic response, South Asia, pandemic containment, future pandemics, cross-national comparison
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Asia, Communicable Disease Control, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Pneumonia, Viral, Pandemics
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