It’s Just Not That Simple: An Empirical Study of the Accuracy-Explainability Trade-off in Machine Learning for Public Policy
Open accessAbstract
To achieve high accuracy in machine learning (ML) systems, practitioners often use complex “black-box” models that are not easily understood by humans. The opacity of such models has resulted in public concerns about their use in high-stakes contexts and given rise to two conflicting arguments about the nature — and even the existence — of the accuracy-explainability trade-off. One side postulates that model accuracy and explainability are inversely related, leading practitioners to use black-box models when high accuracy is important. The other side of this argument holds that the accuracy-explainability trade-off is rarely observed in practice and consequently, that simpler interpretable models should always be preferred. Both sides of the argument operate under the assumption that some types of models, such as low-depth decision trees and linear regression are more explainable, while others such as neural networks and random forests, are inherently opaque.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In two public-policy user studies, the paper finds no statistically significant difference in explainability between black-box and interpretable models for human-in-the-loop users, and black-box models were sometimes both more accurate and more explainable. The accuracy-explainability trade-off is metric- and context-dependent rather than a simple inverse relationship.
Key findings
- No statistically significant difference in explainability between black-box and interpretable models across the four explainability metrics; pairwise model-type differences existed. For example, ASO task p=0.296 in both domains, IMIF task p=0.087 (education) and p=0.108 (housing). Interpretable systems were perceived as more confusing than black-box systems (System Confusing p=0.004 education, p<0.000 housing); 33.4% overall reported confusion (35.0% education, 31.9% housing) at score ≥4.0.
- Accuracy: in both use-cases, the difference between the most accurate black-box and most accurate interpretable model was less than 0.01 on accuracy score. In housing, the best black-box model outperformed the top interpretable model by 7% on precision@25% (0.85 vs. 0.78). Education best black-box XGBoost: accuracy 0.89, precision@25% 0.77; best interpretable logistic regression: accuracy 0.88, precision@25% 0.77.
- Two drivers: additional information may confuse users, and intrinsic explainability mechanisms have weaknesses. Decision trees had the lowest IMIF performance; participants often defaulted to the root or a terminal node. Linear regression’s linear formula performed poorly on the local ASO task due to a scope mismatch.
- In some cases there was no trade-off: with precision@25% vs. ASO, black-box models were both more accurate and more explainable; with accuracy score vs. IMIF, black-box and interpretable models performed similarly.
Methods
- Two public-policy use-cases: Education (Portuguese student performance; 1,044 records, 33 features; predict failure grade ≤10) and Housing (King County, WA; 21,613 records, 20 features; predict sale price ≥ $645,000). Per domain, trained 8 classifiers: 3 black-box (XGBoost, extra trees, random forests), 4 interpretable (decision tree, Ridge, Lasso, logistic regression), and 1 dummy baseline; tuned via hyperparameter sweep, validated with stratified k-fold cross-validation, and evaluated on 7 metrics including accuracy and precision@25%. Selected random forest, linear regression (Ridge for Education, Lasso for Housing), and decision tree for the survey.
- IRB-approved user study via Prolific: 168 participants per domain, pre-screened as US residents, over 18, English-speaking; education-sector participants for Education and real-estate participants for Housing. Each participant viewed one black-box and one interpretable model in random order, completed the ASO and IMIF tasks, and answered an 8-item Likert questionnaire (5-item Understood System, 3-item System Confusing). Analysis used McNemar’s test and random effects models.
Limitations
- Stated by the authors: proxy tasks may not accurately measure explainability in real-world decision-making; the lab environment has no real stakes; only two use-cases are included; qualitative research is absent, leaving open how explainability interacts with users’ mental models.
- Evident from the text: the Education dataset had data leakage because absences and failures were aggregated across all three years, including the prediction year, and could not be disentangled; this improves accuracy metrics but applies to both model types. Housing dropped 10 records and omitted zip codes. The IMIF task design may not be robust because some users confused local and global feature importance, likely making IMIF results overly pessimistic.
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Cites
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 38 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Model accuracy and explainability are not necessarily inversely related.
“Finally, we find that model accuracy and explainability are not necessarily inversely related.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
Local explanations like SHAP are most useful to users when they are significantly different from global explanations about a model.
“Local explanations, like those from SHAP, are most useful to users in cases where these explanations are significantly different from global explanations about a model (e.g., feature importance).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There were significant pairwise differences in ASO performance across specific model types (decision tree, linear regression, black-box no SHAP, black-box SHAP).
“However, there were significant pairwise differences when comparing ASO performance for specific model types (decision tree, linear regression, black-box (no SHAP), black-box (SHAP); see Figures 2, 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Participants were most successful at completing the ASO task when presented with the black-box model.
“We found that participants were most successful at completing the ASO task when presented with the black-box model, as seen in Figure 2 (a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Providing more information to a HITL was only useful if it did not confuse the user.
“Providing more information to a HITL (e.g., SHAP explanations for black-box models or “intrinsic” explainability mechanisms such as a tree diagram for decision trees) was only useful if it did not confuse the user.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
When users were asked to identify the most important feature of a decision tree model and were presented with the tree diagram, they often defaulted to selecting the feature found at the root of the tree regardless of whether or not it was the most important.
“For example, when users were asked to identify the most important feature of a decision tree model and were presented with the tree diagram, they often defaulted to selecting the feature found at the root of the tree regardless of whether or not the feature was the most important.”
- Also stated in: § Additional findings. · plain
“This result was observed despite participants being given detailed instructions about the overall system characteristics, feature importance, and the tree diagram.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Additional findings. · plain
- Findingnone given
The utility of explanations is heavily dependent on the explainability task asked of the user.
“Additionally, the utility of these explanations is heavily dependent on the explainability task asked of the user.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Explainability is not directly related to whether a model is a black-box or interpretable.
“Our key finding is that explainability is not directly related to whether a model is a blackbox or interpretable and is more nuanced than previously thought.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was no statistically significant difference in ASO task performance between end users of interpretable and black-box models.
“While one might expect users to perform better at anticipating the output for interpretable models as compared to black-box models, we found on average no statistically significant difference in the ASO task performance between the end users of the interpretable and black-box models (all statistics and p-values for this paper be found in Appendix B in Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After preliminary model training, the models' most important features were always zip codes.
“After preliminary model training, we noticed the models' most important features were always zip codes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For certain metrics, such as precision@25%, the best performing black-box outperformed the best interpretable model by 0.07.
“It was observed that for certain metrics, such as precision@25%, the best performing black-box outperformed the best interpretable model by 0.07.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Participants often defaulted to picking either the top node in the tree or a random terminal node when selecting the most important feature.
“Taken together, the result table and tree diagram show how participants often defaulted to picking either the top node in the tree or a random terminal node when selecting the most important feature.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The best performing black-box model outperformed the top interpretable model by 7% in the housing usecase on precision@25%.
“Notably, the best performing black-box model outperformed the top interpretable model by 7%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Some users were confused by the IMIF task and instead tried to identify the most important feature for the classification of that particular profile, rather than for the entire model.
“Some users were confused by this, and instead tried to identify the most important feature for the classification of that particular profile, rather than for the entire model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The not-confused users had best performance on the ASO task.
“In contrast, the not-confused users had best performance on the ASO task, which supports the claim that for them having more information was helpful.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Regardless of the performance metric chosen, there is very little difference between the performance of the best performing black-box and interpretable model.
“It was observed that regardless of the performance metric chosen, there is very little difference between the performance of the best performing black-box and interpretable model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was no statistically significant difference in IMIF performance between interpretable and black-box systems.
“We observed that there was no statistically significant difference in IMIF performance, regardless of whether a participant was presented with an interpretable or a black-box system.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Participants from the confused subgroup performed substantially worse at the ASO task.
“Importantly, participants from the confused subgroup performed substantially worse at the ASO task.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Interpretable models were not more explainable than black-box models.
“In this work, we conducted an empirical investigation of the accuracy-explainability trade-off in two public policy domains and found that nterpretable models were not more explainable than black-box models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Significant differences were found for the System Confusing construct between black-box and interpretable models.
“Interestingly, significant differences were found for the System Confusing construct between black-box and interpretable models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Participants defaulted to selecting the feature found at either the root of the decision tree diagram or one its terminal nodes as the most important, despite receiving clear explanations about the model's feature importance that indicated otherwise.
“The reason behind this finding is deceptively simple: participants defaulted to selecting the feature found at either the root of the decision tree diagram or one its terminal nodes as the most important, despite receiving clear explanations about the model's feature importance that indicated otherwise.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The linear formula presented with linear regression seemed to confuse the users in our study.
“Second, the linear formula presented with linear regression seemed to confuse the users in our study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
In Figure 4 (b), where the accuracy metric is accuracy score and the explainability metric is Task 2: IMIF, there was no trade-off between black-box and interpretable models.
“In Figure 4 (b), where the accuracy metric is accuracy score and the explainability metric is Task 2: IMIF, there was no trade-off between black-box and interpretable models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Users from both the housing and education domains perceived the interpretable systems to be more confusing than the black-box systems.
“Users from both the housing and education domains perceived the interpretable systems to be more confusing than the black-box systems, as seen in Figure 3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The most important feature in the SHAP diagram was almost always the most important feature to the model overall.
“The most important feature in the SHAP diagram was almost always the most important feature to the model overall.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the education domain, participants who viewed the black-box model without SHAP had the best ASO performance.
“Interestingly, in the education domain, participants who viewed the black-box model without SHAP had the best ASO performance.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Black-box and interpretable models performed similarly on the classification task when using a holistic metric such as accuracy score.
“First, black-box and interpretable models performed similarly on the classification task when using a”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Decision tree diagrams confuse helpful users when it comes to identifying the most important feature.
“First, decision tree diagrams confuse helpful users when it comes to identifying the most important feature.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In both education and housing, the model with the lowest absolute score for the IMIF task was the decision tree.
“Figure 2 (b) shows that in both education and housing, the model with the lowest absolute score for the IMIF task was the decision tree.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There were statistically significant pairwise differences in IMIF performance across model types.
“However, there were statistically significant pairwise differences across model types (see Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In both use-cases, the difference between the most accurate black-box model and the most accurate interpretable model was less than 0.01.
“In both use-cases, the difference between the most accurate black-box model and the most accurate interpretable model was less than 0.01.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Even those users who were confused performed well with the black-box model without SHAP explanations.
“Note that in Figure 5 there is one exception: Even those users who were confused performed well with the black-box model without SHAP explanations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
In Figure 4 (a) where precision@25% is graphed against Task 1: ASO, the black-box model performed better with respect to both measures.
“In Figure 4 (a) where precision@25% is graphed against Task 1: ASO, the black-box model performed better with respect to both measures.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the housing domain, participants had best ASO performance when presented with the black-box model with SHAP.
“In the housing domain, participants had best ASO performance when presented with the black-box model with SHAP.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Participants had the lowest IMIF task performance when presented with the decision tree system.
“Unexpectedly, participants had the lowest IMIF task performance when presented with the decision tree system.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Participants' scores on the System Confusing construct in the education domain for the black-box with SHAP model have a bimodal distribution.
“The bimodal distribution of participants' scores on the System Confusing construct with thresholds for the confused subgroup (System Confusing ≥ 4.0) and the not-confused subgroup (System Confusing ≤ 2.5) in the education domain and for participants viewing the black-box with SHAP model.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
Participants were most successful at the IMIF task when presented with either the linear regression or a black-box with SHAP system.
“We found that participants were most successful at the IMIF task when presented with either the linear regression or a black-box with SHAP system.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Accuracy does vary with respect to subgroups in the education domain (sex and parent's education sensitive features).
“Therefore, we performed a subgroup analysis in the education domain (sex and parent's education sensitive features) and found that accuracy does vary with respect to subgroups.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There is no clear trade-off in accuracy and explainability between black-box and interpretable models, for either housing or education.
“This Figure illustrates that there is no clear trade-off in accuracy and explainability between black-box and interpretable models, for either housing or education.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the housing usecase, there was a large difference between the accuracy of black-box and interpretable models when using a specific metric such as precision@25%.
“Second, in the housing usecase, there was a large difference between the accuracy of black-box and interpretable models when using a”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The linear regression model showed relatively poor performance on the ASO task.
“This is evidenced in Figure 2 (a), which shows the relatively poor performance of the linear regression model on the ASO task.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Contrary to common belief, black-box models may often be both the most accurate and the most explainable models to end users.
“Contrary to a common belief held by ML practitioners, black-box models may often be both the most accurate and the most explainable models to end users.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
There is a significant gap in the literature on empirically characterizing the accuracy-explainability trade-off.
“Yet, there is a significant gap in the literature on empirically characterizing the this trade-off [24,28], in part due to the difficulty of quantifying the explainability of both interpretable and black-box models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [24]
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- cites [28]
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- Interpretationown data
There are weaknesses in the intrinsic explainability mechanisms of interpretable models.
“identify two possible reasons: (1) that there are weaknesses in the intrinsic explainability of interpretable models”
- Also stated in: § Additional findings. · plain
“The second factor is that there are weaknesses in the intrinsic explainability mechanisms of interpretable models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Additional findings. · plain
- Study design and conductreasoning
The data leakage in the Education dataset improves model accuracy metrics by making the prediction task easier.
“the leakage improves model accuracy metrics by making the prediction task “easier.””
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
More information about a model may confuse users, leading them to perform worse on objectively measurable tasks.
“and (2) that more information about a model may confuse users, leading them to perform worse on objectively measurable”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Metrics at k are more commonly used in ML for public policy to address real-world resource constraints.
“Importantly, we included metrics at a certain percentage of the population (often referred to as metrics at k) because they are more commonly used in ML for public policy in order to specifically addresses real-world resource constraints [2,12,66].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Interpretationown data
Additional information about a model may not improve its explainability.
“The first is that additional information about a model may not improve its explainability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premiseown data
Tabular datasets make up a large portion of ML public policy problems.
“During the use-case selection process we only considered tabular datasets because they make up a large portion of ML public policy problems.”
- Also stated in: § 3 PUBLIC POLICY USE-CASES · boosted
“As evidence for this, the organization Data Science for Social Good (DSSG) lists approximately 80 projects on their websitefoot_0 at the intersection of ML and public policy and at least 75% of them used tabular data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 3 PUBLIC POLICY USE-CASES · boosted
- Premisecitation
The classifiers chosen are representative of the types of models commonly used in ML for public policy systems.
“We chose these classifiers because they are representative of the types of models commonly used in ML for public policy systems [9,12,20,56].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked - Interpretationnone given
Users are able to understand what a black-box model does without necessarily understanding how it works.
“With respect to black-box models, users are able to understand what the model does without necessarily having to understand how it works.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Black-box models may be as explainable to a HITL as interpretable models.
“We find that black-box models may be as explainable to a HITL as interpretable models”
- Also stated in: § Additional findings. · hedged
“we acknowledge that blackbox models may not be as unexplainable to users as often believed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Additional findings. · hedged
- Premisecitation
The scarcity of empirical research on the accuracy-explainability trade-off is partly due to the difficulty of effectively quantifying explainability.
“In part, the scarcity of empirical research on the accuracyexplainability trade-off is a result of the difficulty of effectively quantifying explainability [32].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [32]
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- Premisecitation
Researchers have demonstrated issues caused by similar ML systems in education and housing.
“researchers have demonstrated issues caused by similar systems in education [6,34,37,59] and housing [7,57], highlighting the importance of understanding these types of systems to mitigate potential harms.”
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- cites [34]
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- cites [37]
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- cites [59]
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- cites [57]
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- Interpretationown data
The second element driving our key finding is weaknesses in the intrinsic explainability mechanisms of interpretable models.
“Weaknesses in intrinsic explainability.The second element driving our key finding is weaknesses in the intrinsic explainability mechanisms of interpretable models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
This is due to a discrepancy between the explainability scope of the ASO task and the intrinsic explainability mechanism of the linear regression model.
“We believe that this is due to a discrepancy between the explainability scope of the ASO task and the intrinsic explainability mechanism of the linear regression model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
When it comes to the explainability of black-box systems, end users do not need to understand how the system works to be able to understand what the system does.
“More generally, when it comes to the explainability of black-box systems, it appears that end users do not need to understand how the system works to be able to understand what the system does.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
This is particularly true when the accuracy metric is resource constrained (e.g., precision@25%).
“This is particularly true when the accuracy metric is resource constrained (e.g., precision@25%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The intrinsic explainability mechanism of a linear regression model (showing the linear formula and coefficient weights) lends itself well to the global explainability of a model.
“The intrinsic explainability mechanism of a linear regression model-that is, showing the linear formula and coefficient weights-lends itself well to the global explainability of a model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
This result was driven by the fact that both black-box and interpretable models had similar accuracy on the holistic metric accuracy score.
“This result was driven by the fact that both black-box and interpretable models had similar accuracy on the holistic metric accuracy score.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Presenting more information about a model may actually confuse users due to information overload.
“Presenting more information about a model may actually confuse users due to information overload.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Our results call into question the commonly held beliefs about the inherent pros and cons of black-box and interpretable models.
“Second, our results call into question the commonly held beliefs about the inherent pros and cons of black-box and interpretable models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
User confusion may play a big role in explainability.
“Our findings suggest that user confusion may play a big role in explainability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
This result was driven by the fact that in both use-cases HITL users who were presented with a black-box model were generally able to correctly complete the ASO task.
“This result was driven by the fact that in both use-cases HITL users who were presented with a black-box model were generally able to correctly complete the ASO task.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The impact of this confusion is that the results found for IMIF performance are likely overly pessimistic.
“The impact of this confusion is that the results we found for IMIF performance are likely overly pessimistic.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
This was an advantage as users were not confused by multiple details about the model.
“Surprisingly, this was an advantage as users were not confused by multiple details about the model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
This result was consistent with the narrative that had emerged from evaluating the ASO and IMIF task results, where participants were more successful when presented with black-box systems.
“This result was consistent with the narrative that had emerged from evaluating the ASO and IMIF task results, where participants were more successful when presented with black-box systems.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The design of the IMIF task may not be a robust measure of global model explainability.
“Notably, our findings indicate that our design of the IMIF task may not be a robust measure of global model explainability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
There are contexts where black-box models may be as explainable to HITL users as interpretable models.
“We would like for this research to be seen as one data point that adds yet another paradoxical result that to the literature: there are contexts where black-box models may be as explainable to HITL users as interpretable models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
There was no statistical difference in explainability between black-box and interpretable models.
“In §5, we show that there was no statistical difference in explainability between black-box and interpretable models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
It is difficult to make general statements about the accuracy-explainability trade-off, because insights are dependent on the metrics used to measure accuracy and explainability.
“Our research illustrates that it is difficult to make general statements about the accuracy-explainability trade-off, because insights are dependent on the metrics used to measure accuracy and explainability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
This result was statistically robust with regards to four different explainability metrics, including the two objective tasks (ASO and IMIF) and the two subjective measures on the users' perceived understanding and confusion.
“This result was statistically robust with regards to four different explainability metrics, including the two objective tasks (ASO and IMIF) and the two subjective measures on the users' perceived understanding and confusion.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Black-box models performed better on resource-constrained metrics in our research.
“As a result, it appears that black-box models performed better on resource-constrained metrics in our research.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Black-box models are most commonly implemented in-practice with SHAP explanations.
“Note that we chose to provide SHAP explanations for one black-box model because it emulates how black-box models are most commonly implemented in-practice [10,36].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
- May combine two claims. 17
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 22
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataBlack-box models, both with and without SHAP explanations, lead to the best performance by users on both objectively-quantifiable tasks in both policy domains.
“In fact, black-box models, both with and without SHAP explanations, lead to the best performance by users on both objectively-quantifiable tasks in both policy domains.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
FindingreasoningIn our user study, the inherent opacity of black-box models meant that less information about the model was displayed.
“In our user study, the inherent opacity of black-box models meant that less information about the model was displayed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe distribution of participants' ratings for the System Confusing construct in the education domain when presented with the black-box model with SHAP is bimodal, suggesting two separate subgroups: those who reported being confused and those who did not.
“The distribution is bimodal, suggesting that there are two separate subgroups: those who reported being confused by the system and those who did not.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataUsing the measures in the study, black-box models are both the most explainable and the most accurate.
“Using these measures, black-box models are both the most explainable and the most accurate.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningFor both education and housing, model accuracy and ability of HITL users to identify the top feature was the same, regardless of whether linear regression or a black-box with SHAP was used.
“For both education and housing, model accuracy and ability of HITL users to identify the top feature was the same, regardless of whether linear regression or a black-box with SHAP was used.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPrior research found that the understanding of a model is negatively correlated with its complexity and that decision trees are among the model types best understood by users.
“Prior research found that the understanding of a model is negatively correlated with its complexity and that decision trees are among the model types best understood by users [4].”
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InterpretationreasoningThe data leakage in the Education dataset poses no harm to the overall study objective because the accuracy improvement applies to both interpretable and black-box models.
“However, since this accuracy improvement applies to both interpretable and black-box models, we believe it poses no harm to our overall study objective.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationBlindly deploying post-hoc explainability techniques can hurt users' performance on certain tasks related to their understanding of ML models.
“researchers have found that blindly deploying post-hoc explainability techniques can actually hurt users' performance on certain tasks related to their understanding of ML models [39].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] source
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Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenClassifiers were tuned using a parameter sweep on a large hyperparameter grid, and performance was validated using stratified k-fold cross-validation.
“The classifiers were tuned using a parameter sweep on a large hyperparameter grid and the performance of each model was validated using stratified k-fold cross-validation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe distinction between interpretable and black-box models lacks attention to model complexity.
“Guidotti et al. [31] point out that the distinction between interpretable and black-box models lacks an attention to model complexity.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] source
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PremisecitationThe seven evaluation metrics reflect the performance measures typically used in ML for public policy.
“These metrics were chosen because they reflect the performance measures typically used in ML for public policy [9,12,20,56].”
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PremisecitationOther model types, like random forests and neural networks, are considered blackboxes.
“Other model types, like random forests and neural networks, are considered blackboxes.”
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PremisecitationML practitioners generally accept rules-based models, decision trees, and linear models as interpretable.
“ML practitioners generally accept three types of models as interpretable: rules-based models, decision trees, and linear models [31].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe human subjects research study was IRB-approved.
“we conducted an IRB-approved human subjects research study.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationUsing zip codes, which are strongly correlated with race, to predict housing prices for tax purposes raises concerns about redlining, which the Fair Housing Act of 1968 outlawed.
“Furthermore, using zip codes -which are strongly correlated with race [21,41] -to predict housing prices for tax purposes raise concerns about redlining, which the Fair Housing Act of 1968 explicitly outlawed as a practice in the United States [14].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [21] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [41]
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [14]
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationProviding more information in ML model explanations can decrease users' perceived understandings due to information overload.
“research shows that providing more information in ML model explanations can actually decrease users' perceived understandings due to information overload [42,49].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [42] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [49]
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataWhile explainability for the overarching category of black-box or interpretable did not differ, individual model types did matter.
“Therefore, while the explainability for the overarching category of black-box or interpretable did not differ, the individual model types did matter.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningTo ensure robustness, models were validated over a range of random seeds and different validation methods (classic k-fold and train-test split).
“To ensure the robustness of our results, the models were also validated over a range of different random seeds and different validation methods such as classic k-fold and train-testsplit.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningEach participant interacts with one black-box and one interpretable model, in a random order.
“To summarize our design: Each participant interacts with one black-box and one interpretable model, in a random order.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe participants were randomly presented one of the four ML systems being studied (black-box no SHAP, black-box with SHAP, linear regression, or decision tree).
“The participants were randomly presented one of the four ML systems being studied (black-box no SHAP, black-box with SHAP, linear regression, or decision tree)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe IMIF task measured the global explainability of the model since the model's feature importance did not vary with respect to each data point.
“In contrast to the first task, this task measured the global explainability of the model since the model's feature importance did not vary with respect to each data point.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenA strength of SHAP is to assist in the local explainability of a model.
“This makes intuitive sense, since a strength of SHAP is to assist in the local explainability of a model.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe questions in the system understanding section were adapted from work by Lim.
“The questions in this section were adapted from work by Lim [43].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [43] source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe methods developed in this paper have only been tested in a lab environment where there are no real stakes for users, which may impact their robustness or validity.
“The methods developed in this paper have only been tested in a lab environment where there are no real stakes for users, which may impact their robustness or validity (e.g., the teachers from our survey did not have a connection with a real student for which the AI system was making a prediction).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe accuracy-explainability trade-off is more nuanced than initially anticipated, and in some cases there may be no trade-off at all.
“Instead, we observed that the accuracy-explainability trade-off is more nuanced than initially anticipated-and in some cases, there may be no trade-off at all.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationThe survey emulates how HITL users interact with ML systems in real-world policy settings.
“We designed the survey to emulate how HITL users interact with ML systems in real-world policy settings [70].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [70] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenEach study had 168 participants to ensure our survey would have statistical power.
“Each study had 168 participants to ensure our survey would have statistical power.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationSimilar findings from XAI research have found that more explanations directly hurt participants' task performance.
“This finding is in concert with similar findings from XAI research [42,49], some of which have found that more explanations directly hurt participants' task performance [39].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataIn addition to the black-box being more explainable, they were also more accurate.
“In addition to the black-box being more explainable, they were also more accurate.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Study design and conductnone givenBy randomizing the order in which participants see each model, we eliminate any learning effect that may occur from interacting with the first model.
“Note that by randomizing the order in which participants see each model, we eliminate any”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningParticipants were highly successful at the IMIF task when presented with the black-box with SHAP because local explainability aligned with the models' global explainability.
“Additionally, participants were highly successful at the IMIF task when presented with the black-box with SHAP because local explainability aligned with the models' global explainability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThis work only includes two use-cases - housing and education.
“Second, this work only includes two use-cases -housing and education.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe extent to which a trade-off exists (when it exists) is dependent on the chosen accuracy metric, on how explainability is measured, and on the context of use.
“Rather, practitioners should acknowledge that the extent to which a trade-off exists (when it exists) is dependent on the chosen accuracy metric, on how explainability is measured, and on the context of use.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningBlack-box models can actually be more explainable and less confusing to users, perhaps by avoiding overloading users with information.
“We observed that black-box models can actually be more explainable and less confusing to users, perhaps by avoiding overloading users with information.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataBlack-box models may be both the most accurate and the most explainable.
“As seen in Figures 4 (a) and (b), black-box models may be both the most accurate and the most explainable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
PremisecitationExplainability is the extent to which someone can accurately understand and predict the output of an ML model.
“This task was adapted from Miller's work [47] where explainability is the extent to which someone can accurately understand and predict the output of an ML model.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [47]
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
ML systems in public policy settings are almost always implemented alongside a human user who must understand the system sufficiently to take responsibility for the decisions.
“Three such considerations are: (1) ML systems in public policy settings are almost always implemented alongside a human user who must understand the system sufficiently to take responsibility for the decisions”
The paper relies on this without support.
The transparency of ML systems in public policy is often (and with increasing frequency) legally mandated due to their public and high-stakes nature.
“(2) the transparency of these systems is often (and with increasing frequency) legally mandated due to their public and high-stakes nature”
The paper relies on this without support.
Accuracy in public policy ML is typically measured relative to a resource constraint.
“(3) accuracy is typically measured relative to a resource constraint (see section 4.2).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The dropped housing records were likely input errors and their removal would not have any significant effect on the overall model training and prediction outcomes.
“We found it reasonable to assume that these were likely input errors and that their removal would not have any significant effect on the overall model training and prediction outcomes.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In both policy contexts, intervention resources were limited to 25% of the population.
“In both policy contexts, we assumed that intervention resources were limited to 25% of the population (see Table 1).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The model training process followed ML for public policy industry standards and best practices.
“Our model training process followed ML for public policy industry standards and best practices.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Precision@25% was the most policy-relevant metric.
“since this was the most policy-relevant metric.”
The paper relies on this without support.
An accuracy-explainability trade-off exists in ML public policy contexts.
“The initial goal of this research was to quantify the accuracyexplainability trade-off in ML public policy contexts.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Participants recruited from Prolific in the specified industries are representative of HITL users in public policy settings.
“We recruited participants through Prolific, an online research recruitment platform.”
“For the education domain, participants were pre-screened as being in the Education & Training employment-sector and the Primary/Secondary K-12 Education industry.For the housing study, participants were from the Real Estate Rental & Leasing industry.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Tasks that involve inherent uncertainty are often those where humans tend to rely on AI systems for advice, such as loan approval, recidivism prediction, house price estimation, and student admission.
“Tasks that involve inherent uncertainty are often those where humans tend to rely on AI systems for advice, such as loan approval [27, 34, 124], recidivism prediction [31, 47, 86], house price estimation [2, 13, 25], and student admission [13, 24].”
From Dealing with Uncertainty: Understanding the Impact of Prognostic Versus Diagnostic Tasks on Trust and Reliance in Human-AI Decision Making (2024) · cites this paper as [13]
The Introduction describes humans using ML predictions to inform decisions, and §3 identifies house-price estimation as one such use case. But the paper’s education use case predicts students’ risk of failure to allocate tutoring, not student admission; it also does not characterize these tasks as ones involving inherent uncertainty. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
The claimed absence of explainability differences contradicts the subjective results
MajorThe paper says there was no statistical difference across all four explainability metrics. Table 3 instead reports significant black-box-versus-interpretable differences for System Confusing in both domains and Understood System in housing.
“In §5, we show that there was no statistical difference in explainability between black-box and interpretable models.This result was statistically robust with regards to four different explainability metrics, including the two objective tasks (ASO and IMIF) and the two subjective measures on the users' perceived understanding and confusion.”
“| Understood System 3 | -1.674 | 0.094 | -2.450 | 0.014 ** | | System Confusing 3 | 2.864 | 0.004 ** | 3.619 | < 0.000 *** |”
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- Yujia Zhang, Kuangyan Song, Yiming Sun, Sarah Tan, and Madeleine Udell. 2019. ” Why Should You Trust My Explanation?” Understanding Uncertainty in LIME Explanations. arXiv preprint arXiv:1904.12991(2019). · arXiv
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Towards Human-Centered Explainable AI: A Survey of User Studies for Model Explanations
Rong, Y., Leemann, T., Nguyen, T.-T., Fiedler, L., Qian, P., Unhelkar, V., Seidel, T., Kasneci, G., & Kasneci, E. (2024) · IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence · doi:10.1109/tpami.2023.3331846 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Fok, R., & Weld, D. S. (2023) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2305.07722 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Bell, A., Nov, O., & Stoyanovich, J. (2023) · Data & Policy · doi:10.1017/dap.2023.8 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationA Missing Piece in the Puzzle: Considering the Role of Task Complexity in Human-AI Decision Making
Salimzadeh, S., He, G., & Gadiraju, U. (2023) · Proceedings of the 31st ACM Conference on User Modeling, Adaptation and Personalization · doi:10.1145/3565472.3592959 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Salimzadeh, S., He, G., & Gadiraju, U. (2024) · Proceedings of the CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems · doi:10.1145/3613904.3641905 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
“In addition, the attributes of AI systems can enhance decision-making outcomes [68], which include aspects such as predictions generated by AI [66, 76, 99], information about AI predictions or AI systems themselves [13, 70, 118, 136], and interventions that impact cognitive processes [65, 99, 105].”
Background
- Authors
- Bell, A., Solano-Kamaiko, I., Nov, O., & Stoyanovich, J.
- Affiliations
- New York University (US)
- Venue
- 2022 ACM Conference on Fairness Accountability and Transparency
- Publisher
- ACM
- Published
- 2022-06-20
- Pages
- 248-266
- OpenAlex
- W4283157638
- Cited by
- 103
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 3
- FWCI
- 11.31
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT) (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1916505, 1934464, 1928614, 2129076)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › E-Government and Public Services
- Keywords
- explainable machine learning, black-box models, interpretable models, model opacity, public policy, algorithmic transparency, high-stakes decision making, model complexity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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