The DOI matches its Crossref record; 62 of the 62 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Artificial Intelligence, Predictive Policing, and Risk Assessment for Law Enforcement
Abstract
There are widespread concerns about the use of artificial intelligence in law enforcement. Predictive policing and risk assessment are salient examples. Worries include the accuracy of forecasts that guide both activities, the prospect of bias, and an apparent lack of operational transparency. Nearly breathless media coverage of artificial intelligence helps shape the narrative. In this review, we address these issues by first unpacking depictions of artificial intelligence. Its use in predictive policing to forecast crimes in time and space is largely an exercise in spatial statistics that in principle can make policing more effective and more surgical. Its use in criminal justice risk assessment to forecast who will commit crimes is largely an exercise in adaptive, nonparametric regression. It can in principle allow law enforcement agencies to better provide for public safety with the least restrictive means necessary, which can mean far less use of incarceration. None of this is mysterious. Nevertheless, concerns about accuracy, fairness, and transparency are real, and there are tradeoffs between them for which there can be no technical fix. You can't have it all. Solutions will be found through political and legislative processes achieving an acceptable balance between competing priorities.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Reliance on baseline recidivism rates and their variability across time periods and jurisdictions, coupled with data quality limitations, imposes a methodological barrier that AI/ML, on its own, cannot overcome (Berk, 2021;Steyerberg, 2019;Weber et al., 2025).”
From Scoping review on the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning with structured instruments to predict juvenile recidivism (2026) · cites this paper as Berk, 2021
In the citing paper
“In this regard, as Berk (2021) warns, AI/ML models applied to criminology cannot extract a strong predictive signal if it does not exist in the administrative and historical data sets.”
From Scoping review on the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning with structured instruments to predict juvenile recidivism (2026) · cites this paper as Berk, 2021
In the citing paper
“This predictive ceiling suggests that the performance of risk assessment tools is more dependent on the quality, validity, and structure of the available data than on the sophistication of the algorithm (Berk, 2021;Steyerberg, 2019).”
From Scoping review on the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning with structured instruments to predict juvenile recidivism (2026) · cites this paper as Berk, 2021
Citations
Cites
Breiman, L. (2001) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1023/a:1010933404324 · Cited by 133,538
Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso
Tibshirani, R. (1996) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology · doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x · Cited by 51,482
The Elements of Statistical Learning
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7 · Cited by 25,970
Classification And Regression Trees
Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A., & Stone, C. J. (2017) · doi:10.1201/9781315139470 · Cited by 11,417
I.—COMPUTING MACHINERY AND INTELLIGENCE
TURING, A. M. (1950) · Mind · doi:10.1093/mind/lix.236.433 · Cited by 10,290
Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009) · doi:10.1515/9781400829828 · Cited by 9,467
Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications
Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511811241 · Cited by 8,092
Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor
Arute, F., Arya, K., Babbush, R., Bacon, D., Bardin, J. C., Barends, R., Biswas, R., Boixo, S., Brandao, F. G. S. L., Buell, D. A., et al. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1666-5 · Cited by 7,720
Friedman, J. H. (2002) · Computational Statistics & Data Analysis · doi:10.1016/s0167-9473(01)00065-2 · Cited by 7,067
Cressie, N. A. C. (1993) · Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics · doi:10.1002/9781119115151 · Cited by 6,507
The Algorithmic Foundations of Differential Privacy
Dwork, C., & Roth, A. (2014) · Foundations and Trends® in Theoretical Computer Science · doi:10.1561/0400000042 · Cited by 5,557
Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author)
Breiman, L. (2001) · Statistical Science · doi:10.1214/ss/1009213726 · Cited by 4,340
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy 2009
Loy, M. (2015) · doi:10.18665/sr.22353 · Cited by 2,477
Fair prediction with disparate impact: a study of bias in recidivism prediction instruments
Chouldechova, A. (2017) · Big Data · doi:10.1089/big.2016.0047 · Cited by 2,159
Distribution-Free Predictive Inference for Regression
Lei, J., G’Sell, M., Rinaldo, A., Tibshirani, R. J., & Wasserman, L. (2018) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2017.1307116 · Cited by 1,049
Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime
Mohler, G., Short, M., Brantingham, P., Schoenberg, F., & Tita, G. (2011) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2011.ap09546 · Cited by 998
Fairness in Criminal Justice Risk Assessments: The State of the Art
Berk, R., Heidari, H., Jabbari, S., Kearns, M., & Roth, A. (2021) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124118782533 · Cited by 988 · cited 7×
“However, the critique was far too narrowly formulated and poorly informed about the nature of racial bias and necessary tradeoffs between different kinds of unfairness (Berk et al. 2018, Spielkamp 2017).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationFreedman, D. A. (2009) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511815867 · Cited by 972
Inherent trade-offs in the fair determination of risk scores
Kleinberg, J., Mullainathan, S., & Raghavan, M. (2017) · Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik · doi:10.4230/lipics.itcs.2017.43 · Cited by 943
The master algorithm: how the quest for the ultimate learning machine will remake our world
(2016) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.194685 · Cited by 810
The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Braga, A. A., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2012) · Justice Quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2012.673632 · Cited by 727
Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations
Perry, W., McInnis, B., Price, C., Smith, S., & Hollywood, J. (2013) · doi:10.7249/rr233 · Cited by 693
The Criminology of Place: Street Segments and Our Understanding of the Crime Problem
Weisburd, D., Groff, E. R., & Yang, S.-M. (2012) · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195369083.001.0001 · Cited by 685
Algorithmic Prediction in Policing: Assumptions, Evaluation, and Accountability
Moses, L. B., & Chan, J. B. L. (2016) · Policing & Society · doi:10.1080/10439463.2016.1253695 · Cited by 453
Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing
Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Malinowski, S., Johnson, M., Tita, G. E., Bertozzi, A. L., & Brantingham, P. J. (2015) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2015.1077710 · Cited by 381
Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans
Genovese, S. (2020) · ORDO · doi:10.1515/ordo-2021-0028 · Cited by 362
Time series analysis, forecasting and control
Young, P. C., & Shellswell, S. (1972) · IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control · doi:10.1109/tac.1972.1099963 · Cited by 340
The Hotspot Matrix: A Framework for the Spatio‐Temporal Targeting of Crime Reduction
Ratcliffe, J. H. (2004) · Police Practice and Research · doi:10.1080/1561426042000191305 · Cited by 323
Prospective Hot-Spotting: The Future of Crime Mapping?
BOWERS, K. J. (2004) · The British Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1093/bjc/azh036 · Cited by 316
Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting
Caplan, J. M., Kennedy, L., & Miller, J. (2011) · Justice Quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2010.486037 · Cited by 300
Statistical physics of crime: A review
D'Orsogna, M. R., & Perc, M. (2014) · Physics of Life Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.plrev.2014.11.001 · Cited by 281
The Ethical Algorithm: The Science of Socially Aware Algorithm Design
Kearns, M. J., & Roth, A. (2021) · Perspectives on Science and Christian Faith · doi:10.56315/pscf3-21kearns · Cited by 273
The Rise of Big Data Policing: Surveillance, Race, and the Future of Law Enforcement
Ferguson, A. G. (2020) · doi:10.2307/j.ctt1pwtb27 · Cited by 266
An Empirical Study of Rich Subgroup Fairness for Machine Learning
Kearns, M. J., Neel, S., Roth, A., & Wu, Z. S. (2019) · ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT) · doi:10.1145/3287560.3287592 · Cited by 226
Interpretable classification models for recidivism prediction
Zeng, J., Ustun, B., & Rudin, C. (2017) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society · doi:10.1111/rssa.12227 · Cited by 220
Army of none: autonomous weapons and the future of war
Joshi, S. (2018) · International Affairs · doi:10.1093/ia/iiy153 · Cited by 193
Hu, Y., Wang, F., Guin, C. C., & Zhu, H. (2018) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.08.001 · Cited by 184
Marked point process hotspot maps for homicide and gun crime prediction in Chicago
Mohler, G. (2014) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.01.004 · Cited by 182
Predictive Policing and the Politics of Patterns
Kaufmann, M., Egbert, S., & Leese, M. (2018) · The British Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1093/bjc/azy060 · Cited by 170
An impact assessment of machine learning risk forecasts on parole board decisions and recidivism
Berk, R. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-017-9286-2 · Cited by 169
Self-citationPredictive Crime Mapping: Arbitrary Grids or Street Networks?
Rosser, G., Davies, T., BOWERS, K. J., Johnson, S. D., & Cheng, T. (2016) · Journal of Quantitative Criminology · doi:10.1007/s10940-016-9321-x · Cited by 151
Weiner, N. A., Farrington, D. P., & Tarling, R. (1986) · The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology (1973-) · doi:10.2307/1143604 · Cited by 148
Chasing Ghosts?: Police Perception of High Crime Areas
Ratcliffe, J. (2001) · The British Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1093/bjc/41.2.330 · Cited by 117
Statistical Learning from a Regression Perspective
Berk, R. A. (2020) · Springer texts in statistics · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-40189-4 · Cited by 113
Self-citationZhang, Y., & Cheng, T. (2019) · Computers Environment and Urban Systems · doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101403 · Cited by 90
Caplan, J. M., & Kennedy, L. W. (2019) · University of California Press eBooks · doi:10.1525/9780520958807 · Cited by 78
Exploratory Space–Time Analysis of Burglary Patterns
Rey, S. J., Mack, E. A., & Koschinsky, J. (2011) · Journal of Quantitative Criminology · doi:10.1007/s10940-011-9151-9 · Cited by 77
Self-Exciting Point Processes with Spatial Covariates: Modelling the Dynamics of Crime
Reinhart, A., & Greenhouse, J. (2018) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics) · doi:10.1111/rssc.12277 · Cited by 76
Flaxman, S. R., Chirico, M., Pereira, P., & Loeffler, C. E. (2019) · The Annals of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1214/19-aoas1284 · Cited by 65
Crime Hot Spot Forecasting: A Recurrent Model with Spatial and Temporal Information
Zhuang, Y., Almeida, M., Morabito, M. S., & Ding, W. (2017) · IEEE International Conference on Big Knowledge (ICBK) · doi:10.1109/icbk.2017.3 · Cited by 63
The Efficiency of Prediction in Criminology
Ohlin, L. E., & Duncan, O. D. (1949) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/220398 · Cited by 45
Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents
Berk, R. A., He, Y., & Sorenson, S. B. (2005) · Evaluation Review · doi:10.1177/0193841x05275333 · Cited by 43
Self-citationDeep learning illustrated : a visual, interactive guide to artificial intelligence
Krohn, J. P., Beyleveld, G., & Bassens, A. (2020) · CERN Document Server (European Organization for Nuclear Research) · Cited by 31
Risk Terrain Modeling: Seasonality and Predictive Validity
Szkola, J., Piza, E. L., & Drawve, G. R. (2019) · Justice Quarterly · doi:10.1080/07418825.2019.1630472 · Cited by 29
Misspecified Mean Function Regression
Berk, R. A., Brown, L., Buja, A., George, E. I., Pitkin, E., Zhang, K., & Zhao, L. H. (2014) · Sociological Methods & Research · doi:10.1177/0049124114526375 · Cited by 26
Self-citationBerk, R. A., Buja, A., Brown, L., George, E. I., Kuchibhotla, A. K., Su, W., & Zhao, L. H. (2019) · The American Statistician · doi:10.1080/00031305.2019.1592781 · Cited by 20
Self-citationLikelihood‐Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio‐Temporal Panel Count Models for Urban Crimes
Liesenfeld, R., Richard, J., & Vogler, J. (2016) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2534 · Cited by 20
Algorithmic approach to forecasting rare violent events
Berk, R., & Sorenson, S. (2020) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12476 · Cited by 18
Self-citationMetabolic Profile of Flunitrazepam: Clinical and Forensic Toxicological Aspects
Dinis‐Oliveira, R. J. (2017) · Drug Metabolism Letters · doi:10.2174/1872312811666170407164216 · Cited by 16
Almost politically acceptable criminal justice risk assessment
Berk, R. A., & Elzarka, A. A. (2020) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12500 · Cited by 16
Self-citationHidden Markov Models for Time Series - An Introduction UsingR
Sanchez, J. (2011) · Journal of Statistical Software · doi:10.18637/jss.v043.b04 · Cited by 4
Heuristic Approaches to the Position Location Problem
Munoz, D., Bouchereau, F., Vargas‐Rosales, C., & Enriquez, R. (2009) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-374353-4.00010-7 · Cited by 1
Research works printed but not linked: 44
- Ackerman E., 2017, IEEE Spectrum
- Aldor-Noiman S, 2016, Stat. Sin., 26, 1587
- Angwin A, 2016, ProPublica
- Anselin L, 2000, Criminal Justice 2000: Measurement and Analysis of Crime and Justice, 213
- Berk RA., 2018, Machine Learning Forecasts of Risk in Criminal Justice Settings
- Berk RA, 2013, J. Criminol. Public Policy, 12, 515
- Berk RA, 2016, J. Empir. Legal Stud., 13, 95
- Burgess EM., 1928, The Working of the Indeterminate Sentence Law and the Parole System in Illinois, 205
- Caplan JM., 2011, J. Policy Dev. Res., 13, 57
- Cellen-Jones R., 2014, BBC News: Technology
- Chinoy S., 2019, New York Times
- Coglianese C, 2017, Georget. Law J., 105, 1147
- Corbett-Davies S, 2018, The measure and mismeasure of fairness: a critical review of fair machine learning
- Goel S, 2019, Risk-Resil. Res.
- Goodfellow I, 2016, Deep Learning
- Groff ER, 2004, Crime Prev. Stud., 13, 29
- Hamilton M., 2016, Am. Crim. Law Rev., 52, 231
- Helmstetter A, 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2483
- Hill K., 2020, New York Times, 3
- Hollywood JS, 2019, Real-Time Crime Centers in Chicago
- Huq AZ., 2019, Duke Law J, 68, 1043
- Johnson SD, 2007, Prospective crime mapping in operational context
- Kearns M, Neel S, Roth A, Wu Z. 2018b. Preventing fairness gerrymandering: auditing and learning subgroup fairness. arXiv 1711.05144v4 [cs.LG] · arXiv
- Kessel JM., 2019, New York Times
- Kroll JA, 2017, Univ. Pa. Law Rev., 165, 633
- Lyngstad T, 2017, Predicting future crime at birth
- Malkevitch J., 2007, Taxi! American Mathematical Society
- Mayson SG., 2019, Yale Law J, 128, 2218
- Metz C., 2019, New York Times
- Mitchell M., 2019, New York Times
- Mullainathan S., 2019, New York Times
- Pande V., 2018, New York Times
- Pascanu R, Gulcehere C, Cho K, Begio Y. 2014. How to construct deep recurrent neural networks. arXiv:13126026v5 [cs.NE]
- Pindyck RS, Rubinfeld DL. 1981. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts . New York: McGraw Hill. 2nd ed.
- Poole D, 1998, Computational Intelligence: A Logic Approach
- Rachlinski JJ, 2009, Notre Dame Law Rev, 84, 1195
- Reiss AJ., 1951, Am. J. Sociol., 17, 268
- Rosser G, 2016, Appl. Spat. Anal., 12, 5
- Smith CS., 2019, New York Times
- Spielkamp M., 2017, MIT Technology Review
- Starr S., 2014, New York Times
- Wang B, Yin P, Bertozzi AL, Brantingham PJ, Osher SJ, Xin J. 2017a. Deep learning for real-time crime forecasting and its ternarization. arXiv:1711.08833v1 [cs.LG] · arXiv
- Wang B, Zhang D, Zhang D, Brantingham PJ, Bettozzi AL. 2017b. Deep learning for real time crime forecasting. arXiv:1707.03340v1 [math.NA] · arXiv
- Weisburd D, 2004, The growth of Compstat in American policing
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Ethical Implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) For Meaningful Work
Bankins, S., & Formosa, P. (2023) · Journal of Business Ethics · doi:10.1007/s10551-023-05339-7 · Cited by 633
Shepherd, D. A., & Majchrzak, A. (2022) · Journal of Business Venturing · doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2022.106227 · Cited by 329
The Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence: Next Steps for Empirical and Normative Research
Tallberg, J., Erman, E., Furendal, M., Geith, J., Klamberg, M., & Lundgren, M. (2023) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viad040 · Cited by 169
Schiff, K. J., Schiff, D. S., Adams, I. T., McCrain, J., & Mourtgos, S. M. (2023) · Public Administration Review · doi:10.1111/puar.13754 · Cited by 82
Survey on Machine Learning Biases and Mitigation Techniques
Siddique, S., Haque, M. A., George, R., Gupta, K. D., Gupta, D., & Faruk, M. J. H. (2023) · Digital · doi:10.3390/digital4010001 · Cited by 78
Metadata
- Authors
- Berk, R. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Corresponding author
- Berk, Richard A.
- ORCID
- Berk, Richard A.
- Venue
- Annual Review of Criminology
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2021-01-13
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 209-237
- ISSN
- 2572-4568 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3100801413
- Cited by
- 213
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 73 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 4
- FWCI
- 2.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Criminology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
- Social Sciences › Law › Artificial Intelligence in Law
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Keywords
- artificial intelligence, predictive policing, algorithmic bias, algorithmic transparency, algorithmic fairness, crime prediction, nonparametric regression, public safety, law enforcement
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review