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Attribution of Weather and Climate Events
Abstract
Within the past decade, the attribution of extreme weather and climate events has emerged from a theoretical possibility into a subfield of climate science in its own right, providing scientific evidence on the role of anthropogenic climate change in individual extreme weather events, on a regular basis and using a range of approaches. Different approaches and thus different framings of the attribution question lead to very different assessments of the role of human-induced climate change. Although there is no right or wrong approach, the community is currently debating about the appropriate methodologies for addressing various stakeholder needs and scientific limitations. Tackling these limitations with more thorough model evaluation and meaningful bias corrections as well as going beyond the meteorological hazard and attributing the full impacts of extreme weather are the main challenges to face in the coming years.
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“Yet, an increasing literature shows how short-term events, such as storms, and medium-term events, such as droughts, are linked to anthropogenic climate change (Lehmann et al., 2018;Otto, 2017;Stott et al., 2016) and can also be used for the estimation of longer-term climatic impacts (Hsiang, 2016).”
From Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature (2021) · cites this paper as Otto, 2017
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Metadata
- Authors
- Otto, F. E. L.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Otto, Friederike E.L.
- Venue
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2017-10-17
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 627-646
- ISSN
- 1543-5938 (ISSN-L)
- 1545-2050
- OpenAlex
- W2727924148
- Cited by
- 209
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 1.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- climate change attribution, anthropogenic climate change, climate model evaluation, bias correction, stakeholder needs
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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