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Elaborating the Individual Difference Component in Deterrence Theory
Abstract
Deterrence theory and criminal justice policy hold that punishment enhances compliance and deters future criminal activity. Empirical research, however, is decidedly mixed, with some studies finding that punishment weakens compliance, some finding that sanctions have no effect on compliance, and some finding that the effect of sanctions depends on moderating factors. In this review, we do not consider whether sanctions affect compliance but instead consider the conditions under which sanctions affect compliance. Specifically, we focus on understanding the kinds-of-people dimension of sanctions and deterrence to include individual differences (in social bonding, morality, discount rate, impulsivity, social network position, decision-making competence) and situational differences (in emotions, alcohol/drug use). Upon reviewing the empirical evidence, we identify important gaps for theoretical and empirical work and comment on how this work relates to public policy.
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“To investigate the effects of justice system contact on future behavior, it is necessary to account for preexisting individual differences that may cause some individuals to have a higher risk of coming into contact with the justice system in the first place (e.g., see Murray, Farrington, & Eisner, 2009; Nagin & Paternoster, 1993; Piquero, Paternoster, Pogarsky, & Loughran, 2011; Pogarsky, 2002).”
From Does contact with the justice system deter or promote future delinquency? Results from a longitudinal study of British adolescent twins (2020) · cites this paper as Piquero, Paternoster, Pogarsky, & Loughran, 2011
In the citing paper
“First, we followed the call of previous research (see, e.g., Farrington, 2003; Murray et al., 2009; Piquero et al., 2011; Pogarsky, 2002) and employed one of the most rigorous nonexperimental methodological designs capable of accounting for a wide range of selection effects and confounding influences.”
From Does contact with the justice system deter or promote future delinquency? Results from a longitudinal study of British adolescent twins (2020) · cites this paper as Piquero et al., 2011
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“…certainty of apprehension (i.e., the seeming threat of detection or punishment) has been recognized as the most important component of Classical Deterrence Theory, followed by the perceived severity of the punishment (i.e., fear of incurring a fine and demerit points1) (Piquero et al., 2011).”
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Ray, J. V., Baker, T., & Caudy, M. S. (2020) · Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2019.101654 · Cited by 18
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“…relate to variation in marginal prison peer effect estimates to achieve a better understanding of individual prisonization processes (Clemmer, 1950) and to characterize the conditions under which and for whom cellmate associations become most and least deterrent (Basu, 2013; Piquero et al., 2011).”
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BackgroundTrust in the Twenty-First Century
Tyler, T. R. (2015) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-22261-5_12 · Cited by 16
Bouffard, J. A., Exum, M. L., & Niebuhr, N. (2018) · Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2018.04.005 · Cited by 15
Hautala, D. S., & Sittner, K. J. (2019) · Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0022427819834331 · Cited by 14
“Consistent with prior research (Dodge and Pettit 2003; Piquero et al. 2011), emotions encapsulated by depression shape cognitive schemas conducive toward aggressive behavior through selective attention to J Res Crime Delinq.”
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“, & Goff P. A. (2019). The force of fear: police stereotype threat, self-legitimacy, and support for excessive force.”
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Piquero, A., Piquero, N. L., Gertz, M. G., Bratton, J., & Loughran, T. A. (2011) · American Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1007/s12103-011-9145-z
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Self-citationCriminal thinking as a moderator of the perceived certainty–offending relationship: age variations
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Lindegaard, M. R., Bernasco, W., Jacques, S., & Zevenbergen, B. (2013) · doi:10.21428/7b6d533a.c8f339f3 · Cited by 13
Sanctions, short‐term mindsets, and delinquency: Reverse causality in a sample of high school youth
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Hirtenlehner, H., & Meško, G. (2018) · European Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1177/1477370818788010 · Cited by 12
“Furthermore, the results back the notion of differential deterrability (Piquero et al., 2011) as a concept guiding future perceptual deterrence research.”
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Jaynes, C. M., & Loughran, T. A. (2018) · Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0022427818798684 · Cited by 14
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“While there are many reasons for why these inconsistencies exist, the most cited reason is the inability of deterrence theory to account for differences in the deterrability of individuals (Piquero et al. 2011).”
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Stansfield, R. (2014) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0011128714542500 · Cited by 11
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Kaplan, H. B., Gostjev, F. A., & Johnson, R. J. (2013) · Handbooks of sociology and social research · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-6772-0_19 · Cited by 11
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Stringer, R. J. (2021) · Crime and delinquency · doi:10.1177/00111287211054721 · Cited by 11
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Self-citationSalience and the Severity Versus the Certainty of Punishment
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“…the process of weighing perceived risks and rewards associated with the decision-making circumstance and hypothesizes that the likelihood of offending increases when the perceived benefits outweigh the perceived risks (Cornish & Clarke, 1986; Piquero, Paternoster, Pogarsky, & Loughran, 2011).”
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van Veen, F., & Sattler, S. (2018) · Deviant Behavior · doi:10.1080/01639625.2018.1559409 · Cited by 12
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Self-citationHirtenlehner, H., & Leitgöb, H. (2024) · Deviant Behavior · doi:10.1080/01639625.2023.2298512 · Cited by 8
“This abandoning of the position that deterrence affects all people equally led to a reorientation of perceptional deterrence research: now “the key question is not whether sanctions deterred, but under what conditions or for which kind of persons they deterred” (Piquero et al. 2011: 336).”
InfluentialRose, B., Kuiper, M. E., Folmer, C. R., & van Rooij, B. (2024) · Crime Science · doi:10.1186/s40163-024-00240-8 · Cited by 10
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“Similarly, Piquero et al. (2011, p. 351) argued that drug dealers may be more willing to take risks in situations where they face losses relative to illicit-earnings reference points (see also Cherbonneau & Jacobs, 2019; Whichard & Felson, 2016).”
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“In contrast, the instrumental perspective argues that human rationality induces prosocial behaviour, such as cooperation with the police, based on the threat of sanctions (Nagin, 2013; Piquero et al., 2011).”
Han, S., Piquero, A., & Bersani, B. E. (2023) · Journal of research in crime and delinquency · doi:10.1177/00224278231187311 · Cited by 5
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InfluentialSelf-citationMills, L., & Truelove, V. (2023) · Safety Science · doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106338 · Cited by 6
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Chmura, T., Engel, C., & Englerth, M. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2239027 · Cited by 6
Choi, S., Bitter, A. N., Sturges, H. A., & Snyder, J. A. (2023) · Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology · doi:10.1007/s11896-023-09615-0 · Cited by 5
“Current literature on BWCs mainly relies on deterrence (Ariel 2016; Ariel et al. 2018; Piquero et al. 2011) and self-awareness theories (Ariel 2016; Ariel et al. 2018; Wicklund and Duval 1971).”
Anderson, L., & Truelove, V. (2025) · Policing & Society · doi:10.1080/10439463.2025.2573332 · Cited by 5
“Further, the results support previous deterrence research by Piquero et al. (2011), where it is suggested that the immediacy of the punishment can play an important role in deterring offenders, yet this variable typically has limited effectiveness as a deterrent as the time between committing an…”
Fagan, J. A., Geller, A., & Zimring, F. E. (2012) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/j.1745-9133.2012.00832.x · Cited by 5
Punishment justifications in rape cases: a community study
Bergstrøm, H., Evjetun, P., & Bendixen, M. (2017) · Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention · doi:10.1080/14043858.2017.1387451 · Cited by 5
Altikriti, S., Nedelec, J. L., & Silver, I. A. (2021) · Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice · doi:10.1177/15412040211029991 · Cited by 5
“Nagin and Paternoster (1993) and Piquero and Tibbetts (1996) were among the first to merge individual differences and situational factors of risk and reward (Piquero et al., 2011).”
BackgroundInfluentialKaiser, F. (2022) · International Criminal Justice Review · doi:10.1177/10575677221082071 · Cited by 6
Yasrebi, F., Dirkzwager, A., van der Laan, P. H., & Nieuwbeerta, P. (2023) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-023-09585-7 · Cited by 5
“…emerging partly because the deterrent effect of severe sanctions is being debated and researchers have been suggesting that deterrence should be incorporated with other criminological theories to identify conditions under which severe sanctions may deter (Piquero et al., 2011; Tomlinson, 2016).”
Do comparative judgements affect the perceived relevance of mobile phone road safety campaigns?
Stefanidis, K. B., Truelove, V., Robinson, K., Mills, L., Nicolls, M., Delhomme, P., & Freeman, J. (2024) · Traffic Injury Prevention · doi:10.1080/15389588.2023.2301415 · Cited by 4
“Based on deterrence theory, a high perceived certainty of being apprehended for an offense and severity of the punishment are some of the most important components needed for an individual to be effectively deterred (Homel 1988; Piquero et al. 2011).”
BackgroundKroneberg, C., & Nägel, C. (2024) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/00111287241258730 · Cited by 4
“Rather than assuming that all individuals are equally deterrable or in need of deterrence, the focus of this line of work has shifted to the question “under what conditions or for which kinds of persons” sanctions deter (Piquero et al., 2011, p. 336).”
Meško, G., & Eman, K. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-09813-5_11 · Cited by 5
Mazerolle, L., Cardwell, S., Antrobus, E., & Piquero, A. (2020) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12510 · Cited by 3
“Research consistently demonstrates that the certainty of sanction threats is most critical and effective for preventing antisocial behavior (Nagin, 2013; Piquero et al., 2011).”
Self-citationGómez-Bellvís, A. B., Piquero, A. R., Llinares, F. M., Piquero, N. L., & Castro-Toledo, F. J. (2023) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/00111287231170110 · Cited by 4
“Although several useful summaries of deterrence theory and ensuing research exist elsewhere (see Nagin, 1998; Nagin, 2013; Nagin et al., 2018; Paternoster, 2010; A. R. Piquero et al., 2011), here we highlight some of the key conclusions regarding the punishment characteristics.”
Self-citationTerrorism Outside the Proverbial Vacuum: Implications for the Moral Context
Carson, J. V., & Bartholomew, B. (2016) · Deviant Behavior · doi:10.1080/01639625.2015.1060790 · Cited by 4
“As the authors note, “empirical research has borne this prediction out on numerous occasions with many different offenses” (Piquero et al. 2011:340).”
BackgroundMethod(Crime) School is in Session: Mapping Illegal Earnings to Institutional PlacementPreprint
Nguyen, H., Loughran, T., Paternoster, R., Fagan, J. A., & Piquero, A. R. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2228431 · Cited by 4
Self-citationLoughran, T. A., Paternoster, R., & Weiss, D. B. (2015) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781118512449.ch4 · Cited by 5
Self-citationCyberloafing deterrence in the public sector of Ghana
Kolog, E. A., Mensah, I., & Egala, S. B. (2024) · The Electronic Journal of Information Systems in Developing Countries · doi:10.1002/isd2.12316 · Cited by 3
“While there is ample empirical evidence assessing the deterrent effects of certainty and much less so concerning severity (Nagin, 2013; Piquero et al., 2011), less is known about the effect of celerity or the time between the commission of offense and its punishment.”
BackgroundDo hotspot policing interventions against optimal foragers cause crime displacement?
Halford, E., Giannoulis, M., Condon, C., & Keningale, P. (2024) · International journal of law, crime and justice · doi:10.1016/j.ijlcj.2024.100654 · Cited by 4
Alexander, M., & Bates, L. J. (2024) · Crime Prevention and Community Safety · doi:10.1057/s41300-024-00211-w · Cited by 4
“Thus, deterrence occurs when individuals consider the negative consequences of engaging in illegal behaviours and decide to not do so (Andenaes 1971; Beylev-eld 1979; Hassan et al. 2022; Nichols 1990; Piquero et al. 2011).”
Wyer, T., Love, S., Anderson, L., & Truelove, V. (2024) · Transportation Research Part F Traffic Psychology and Behaviour · doi:10.1016/j.trf.2024.08.020 · Cited by 4
van Rooij, B., Kuiper, M. E., & Piquero, A. R. (2025) · Annual Review of Law and Social Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-111524-094646 · Cited by 7
Self-citationStefanidis, K. B., Truelove, V., Nicolls, M., & Freeman, J. (2022) · Traffic Injury Prevention · doi:10.1080/15389588.2022.2049259 · Cited by 3
“Previous research has suggested that it is important to capture perceived estimates, as it is an individual’s perceptions of a variable, as opposed to objective measures, that impact their engagement in behavior (Andenaes 1974; Piquero et al. 2011).”
BackgroundKaiser, F., Huss, B., & Schaerff, M. (2022) · European Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1177/14773708221128515 · Cited by 3
“…claim (see Kleck and Sever, 2017; Pratt et al., 2006), perceptual deterrence research has focused more and more on the concept of differential deterrability, which suggests that the likelihood of deterrence differs across situations and individuals (Loughran et al., 2018; Piquero et al., 2011).”
BackgroundInfluentialMeans to Incentivize Safety Compliance at Work
Yiu, T. W. (2023) · Digital innovations in architecture, engineering and construction · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-28959-0_9 · Cited by 3
The Fraud Goes On: The Effects of Fraud Duration, Victim Organization Type, and Perpetrator Status
Papakroni, E., Rice, M., & Dilks, L. M. (2023) · Journal of Forensic Accounting Research · doi:10.2308/jfar-2020-027 · Cited by 3
Metadata
- Authors
- Piquero, A. R., Paternoster, R., Pogarsky, G., & Loughran, T.
- Affiliations
- The University of Texas at Dallas (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- State University of New York (US)
- Venue
- Annual Review of Law and Social Science
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2011-12-01
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 335-360
- ISSN
- 1550-3585 (ISSN-L)
- 1550-3631
- OpenAlex
- W2032247959
- Cited by
- 297
- References
- 109
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 18 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 5.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Law and Social Science (publishedVersion)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- deterrence theory, individual differences, punishment, sanctions, compliance, social bonding, morality, discount rate, impulsivity, social network position, decision-making capacity, emotions, alcohol and drug use, situational factors, criminal justice policy
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