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Cited by 1,001Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsGame Theory and ApplicationsEpistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics

First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias

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Rabin, M., Schrag, J. L.·1999·The Quarterly Journal of Economics
DOI 10.1162/003355399555945
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Abstract

Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a simple model that such confirmatory bias induces overconfidence: given any probabilistic assessment by an agent that one of two hypotheses is true, the appropriate beliefs would deem it less likely to be true. Indeed, the hypothesis that the agent believes in may be more likely to be wrong than right. We also show that the agent may come to believe with near certainty in a false hypothesis despite receiving an infinite amount of information.

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  • The more affected one is by confirmation bias, the stronger one's belief in one's trait ascriptions to A.

    “given what we know about the cognitive effect of the bias, the more affected you are by the bias, the stronger your belief in your trait ascriptions to A (Rabin and Schrag 1999)”

    From What Is the Function of Confirmation Bias? (2022) · cites this paper as Rabin and Schrag 1999

    Section 3, “Confirmatory Bias and Belief Formation” (page unavailable), says the bias leads agents to be overconfident in a favored hypothesis. The Introduction (page unavailable) adds that sufficiently strong bias can drive an agent toward believing more strongly in a false hypothesis. These findings support the proposed tendency, but not the unqualified claim that greater bias always produces stronger belief in a trait ascription. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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Research works printed but not linked: 48

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Authors
Rabin, M., & Schrag, J. L.
Affiliations
  • University of California, Berkeley (US)
  • Emory University (US)
Venue
The Quarterly Journal of Economics
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
1999-02-01
Volume
114
Issue
1
Pages
37-82
ISSN
  • 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
  • 1531-4650
DOI
10.1162/003355399555945
OpenAlex
W2159322587
Cited by
1,001
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 42 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 57 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 61 · 2020: 77 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 70 · 2017: 52 · 2016: 63 · 2015: 45 · 2014: 43 · 2013: 30 · 2012: 37
FWCI
4.28
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Game Theory and Applications
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
Keywords
confirmation bias, overconfidence, belief updating, Bayesian updating, hypothesis testing, cognitive biases, false belief, information acquisition

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