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Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes *
Open accessAbstract
We develop a simple model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that is consistent with a number of stylized features of the data. In particular, the model predicts positive as well as zero trade flows across pairs of countries, and it allows the number of exporting firms to vary across destination countries. As a result, the impact of trade frictions on trade flows can be decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins, where the former refers to the trade volume per exporter and the latter refers to the number of exporters. This model yields a generalized gravity equation that accounts for the self-selection of firms into export markets and their impact on trade volumes. We then develop a two-stage estimation procedure that uses an equation for selection into trade partners in the first stage and a trade flow equation in the second. We implement this procedure parametrically, semiparametrically, and nonparametrically, showing that in all three cases the estimated effects of trade frictions are similar. Importantly, our method provides estimates of the intensive and extensive margins of trade. We show that traditional estimates are biased and that most of the bias is due not to selection but rather due to the omission of the extensive margin. Moreover, the effect of the number of exporting firms varies across country pairs according to their characteristics. This variation is large and particularly so for trade between developed and less developed countries and between pairs of less developed countries.
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“Endogeneity has been a major obstacle in gravity models.”
From Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data (2024) · cites this paper as Helpman et al., 2008
In the citing paper
“the profession has struggled to address this issue using standard techniques (e.g., instrumental variable (IV) treatment) due to the fact that very often what determines the probability to sign a trade agreement also affects the volume of trade flows (Egger et al., 2008;Egger et al., 2011;Helpman et al., 2008;Jochmans & Verardi, 2022).”
From Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data (2024) · cites this paper as Helpman et al., 2008
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“If this correlation exists, disregarding the selection process yields biased estimates [see, i.e. the evidence provided by Piermartini and The (2005) and Helpman et al. (2008)].”
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“…decision process via estimating determinants of the probability to trade (extensive margin) simultaneously with estimating determinants of bilateral trade flow (intensive margin), avoiding any bias involved because of sample selection and omission of the extensive margin (Helpman et al., 2008).”
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“Moreover, Helpman et al. (2008) point to a selection bias in the zero trade flows due to the heterogeneity of firms in their productivity to export.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialThe coevolution of trade agreements and investment treaties: Some evidence from network analysis
Htwe, N. N., Lim, S., & Kakinaka, M. (2019) · Social Networks · doi:10.1016/j.socnet.2019.08.005 · Cited by 31
Wu, G., Pu, Y., & Shu, T. (2021) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.120486 · Cited by 31
Trade policy and global value chains: tariffs versus non-tariff measures
Ghodsi, M., & Stehrer, R. (2022) · Review of World Economics · doi:10.1007/s10290-021-00448-9 · Cited by 33
“Kee and Nicita (2016) use the existence of NTMs in the three closest neighbouring countries as an instrument.”
BackgroundTrade fraud and non-tariff measures
Kee, H. L., & Nicita, A. (2022) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103682 · Cited by 31
It Is Much Bigger Than What We Thought: New Estimate of Trade Diversion
Cheong, J., Kwak, D. W., & Tang, K. K. (2015) · World Economy · doi:10.1111/twec.12297 · Cited by 32
Decomposing China's export growth into extensive margin, export quality and quantity effects
Gao, Y., Whalley, J., & Ren, Y. (2014) · China Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2014.02.001 · Cited by 31
“…and Newfarmer (2007), Besedes and Prusa (2011), Hummels and Klenow (2005) use a definition at country-product level; Amiti and Freund (2010), Kehoe and Ruhl (2009) use a product level; Helpman et al. (2008), Felbermayr and Kohler (2006) use a country level; Eaton et al. (2008) is at firm level.”
Do Environmental Regulations Increase Bilateral Trade Flows?
Tsurumi, T., Managi, S., & Hibiki, A. (2015) · The B E Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy · doi:10.1515/bejeap-2014-0164 · Cited by 31
“…of the GDPs of two trading partners ( ijtSim ) calculated as in Egger 9 In gravity models, it is better to either consider some of the effects associated with heterogeneity as asserted by Helpman et al. (2008) or treat country effects in a panel context as discussed by Baldwin and Taglioni (2006).”
Method
Metadata
- Authors
- Helpman, E., Melitz, M., & Rubinstein, Y.
- Affiliations
- Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CA)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2008-05
- Volume
- 123
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 441-487
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W3122837923
- Cited by
- 2,436
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 99 · 2025: 93 · 2024: 104 · 2023: 91 · 2022: 111 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 114 · 2019: 105 · 2018: 126 · 2017: 132 · 2016: 157 · 2015: 200 · 2014: 204 · 2013: 196 · 2012: 174
- FWCI
- 286.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- nrs.harvard.edu
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Technological Innovation
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Strategy and Management › Global Trade and Competitiveness
- Keywords
- international trade, trade flows, gravity model, trade friction, heterogeneous firms, intensive margin, extensive margin, exporters, two-stage estimation, selection bias, developed and developing countries
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