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The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions
Open accessAbstract
We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for U.S. counties east of the 100th meridian, the historical boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a nonlinear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield, gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust, and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.
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Citations
Cited by
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0906865106 · Cited by 3,420
Self-citationRosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222463110 · Cited by 2,319
What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature
Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2014) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.52.3.740 · Cited by 2,300
Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US
Deschênes, O., & Greenstone, M. (2011) · American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.3.4.152 · Cited by 1,064
Hsiang, S. (2016) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-100815-095343 · Cited by 573
Metadata
- Authors
- Schlenker, W., Hanemann, W. M., & Fisher, A. C.
- Venue
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press - Journals
- Published
- 2006-02
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 113-125
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- OpenAlex
- W2147703849
- Cited by
- 510
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 17.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Schlenker, W., Hanemann, W. M., & Fisher, A. C. (2006). The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions. Review of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.2006.88.1.113
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