The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth
Abstract
This paper investigates the remarkable extremes of growth experiences within countries and the changes that occur across growth transitions. We find two main results. First, virtually all but the very richest countries experience both growth miracles and failures over substantial periods. Second, growth accelerations and collapses are asymmetric phenomena. Collapses typically feature reduced investment amidst increasing price instability, whereas growth takeoffs are primarily associated with large expansions in international trade. The results show that even very poor countries regularly grow rapidly, but sustaining growth is difficult and may pose a very different set of challenges than starting it. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Future economic growth alone will not eliminate extreme poverty in developing countries.
“While future growth should continue to reduce poverty, it will not solve the problem by itself-both because a substantial amount of poverty remains even in rapidly growing countries, and because sustained economic growth over decades of the type seen in China is the exception, not the norm ( Jones and Olken 2008).”
From Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries (2018) · cites this paper as Jones and Olken 2008
The level and composition of exports is particularly important for economic growth.
“Research suggests that the level and composition of exports is particularly important for economic growth ( Jones and Olken 2008; Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrick 2005)”
From Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult? (2016) · cites this paper as Jones and Olken 2008
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Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis
Ćorić, B., & Pugh, G. (2012) · International Review of Economics & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2012.07.011 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Economic Crisis, Bureaucratic Quality and Democratic Breakdown
Andersen, D. D. E., & Krishnarajan, S. (2018) · Government and Opposition · doi:10.1017/gov.2017.37 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Inclusive Growth: When May We Expect It? When May We Not?
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Avenues for Export Diversification: Issues for Low-Income Countries
Walkenhorst, P., Brenton, P. A., & Newfarmer, R. S. (2009) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/27930 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts
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Gendered Politics of Securing Inclusive Development
Nazneen, S., & Mahmud, S. (2012) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198722564.003.0008 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
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Brück, T., & Guo, X. (2011) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.05.011 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
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The Global Extent of the Great Moderation*
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Diop, N., Marotta, D., & de Mélo, J. (2012) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9591-2 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Revising Growth Theory in the Artificial Age: Putty and Clay Labor
Puaschunder, J. M. (2019) · Archives of Business Research · doi:10.14738/abr.83.7871 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Output collapses and productivity destruction
Blyde, J. S., Daude, C., & Fernández‐Arias, E. (2010) · Review of World Economics · doi:10.1007/s10290-010-0051-0 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Bhattacharjee, J., & Haldar, S. K. (2015) · Journal of South Asian Development · doi:10.1177/0973174115588847 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Real exchange rate management and economic growth: export performance in Kazakhstan, 2009–2019
Ybrayev, Z. (2020) · International Review of Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/02692171.2020.1836135 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Long run time series tests of constant steady-state growth
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Lamperti, F., & Mattei, C. E. (2018) · Journal of Evolutionary Economics · doi:10.1007/s00191-018-0551-y · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic RecoveryPreprint
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Gnangnon, S. K. (2021) · SN Business & Economics · doi:10.1007/s43546-021-00176-0 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Seeking the links between competition and telecommunications investments
Garrone, P., & Zaccagnino, M. (2015) · Telecommunications Policy · doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2015.03.002 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
The next hundred years of growth and convergence
Startz, R. (2019) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2732 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press - Journals
- Published
- 2008-08
- Volume
- 90
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 582-587
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- OpenAlex
- W1963914954
- Cited by
- 301
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 43.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Information Systems › Economic Growth and Development
- Keywords
- economic growth, growth miracles, growth failure, growth acceleration, international trade, investment, price instability, growth transitions, developing countries, growth sustainability
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