Divergence, Big Time
Abstract
Historical data are unnecessary to demonstrate that perhaps the basic fact of modern economic history is massive absolute divergence in per capita income across countries. A plausible lower bound on per capita income can be combined with estimates of its current level in the poorer countries to place an upper bound on long-run income growth. Between 1870 and 1990, the ratio of richest to poorest countries' income increased from roughly 9 to 1 to 45 to 1, the standard deviation of (natural log) per capita income doubled, and the average income gap between the richest and all other countries grew nearly tenfold from $1,286 to $12,000.
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The main long-term growth pattern in the world economy has been 'divergence, big time'.
“The main long-term growth pattern in the world economy has been: 'divergence, big time' (Pritchett, 1997).”
From The Developmental State: Dead or Alive? (2018) · cites this paper as Pritchett, 1997
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence*
Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005) · Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/qjec.2005.120.1.173 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
The Developmental State: Dead or Alive?
Wade, R. H. (2018) · Development and Change · doi:10.1111/dech.12381 · Cited by 345 · see citing works
The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth
Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2008) · Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.90.3.582 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean
Pritchett, L., & Summers, L. (2014) · doi:10.3386/w20573 · Cited by 224 · see citing works
Self-citationSeck, A. (2012) · Structural Change and Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2011.01.003 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Uneven economic growth and the world economy's north–south stratification
Reuveny, R., & Thompson, W. R. (2008) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00516.x · Cited by 17 · see citing works
- Authors
- Pritchett, L.
- Affiliations
- World Bank (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pritchett, Lant
- ORCID
- Pritchett, Lant
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 1997-08-01
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 3-17
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2150406300
- Cited by
- 1,228
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 33 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 47 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 43 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 40 · 2014: 44 · 2013: 56 · 2012: 57
- FWCI
- 71.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Keywords
- income convergence, income divergence, per capita income, income gap, international income inequality, historical income data
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