Reducing Conversational Agents’ Overconfidence Through Linguistic Calibration
Open accessAbstract
While improving neural dialogue agents’ factual accuracy is the object of much research, another important aspect of communication, less studied in the setting of neural dialogue, is transparency about ignorance. In this work, we analyze to what extent state-of-the-art chit-chat models are linguistically calibrated in the sense that their verbalized expression of doubt (or confidence) matches the likelihood that the model’s responses are factually incorrect (or correct). We find that these models are poorly calibrated, yet we show that likelihood of correctness can accurately be predicted. By incorporating such metacognitive features into the training of a controllable generation model, we obtain a dialogue agent with greatly improved linguistic calibration.
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Robust Uncertainty Quantification for Factual Generation of Large Language Models
Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., & Zhou, L. (2025) · International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) · doi:10.1109/ijcnn64981.2025.11227634 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Li, T. W., Song, Y., Sundaram, H., & Karahalios, K. G. (2026) · CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems · doi:10.1145/3772318.3791940 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Improved Instruction Ordering in Recipe-Grounded Conversation
Le, D., Guo, R., Xu, W. H., & Ritter, A. (2023) · Proceedings of the conference - Association for Computational Linguistics. Meeting · doi:10.18653/v1/2023.acl-long.561 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
A Judge Should Know What Changed:Construct Validity for LLM-as-a-Judge Evaluation
Chen, J., Chen, W., Lin, Z., & Vong, C. M. (2026) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2608.24419
“Linguistic calibration (making an agent’s expressed confidence match its competence) has been trained for directly [36]; expressed uncertainty has since been located as a linear feature in representation space and steered along it [26]; and Tayebi Arasteh [48] recover a graded evidence-strength…”
An Improved Chinese Pause Fillers Prediction Module Based on RoBERTa
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Estimating the Confidence of Language Model Generation using Training Data
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Can I Trust You? Advancing GUI Task Automation with Action Trust Score
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Step-Aware Confidence Estimation in Natural Language Reasoning
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TRACE-QA: Task-routed constraint elimination for auditable multi-agent question answering
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Dynamic adaptive ensemble decoding under uncertainty for large language models
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Why we believe chatbots: trust calibration as a design problem
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The circular economy, explained by AI
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CoSu-UQ: Uncertainty Quantification for Reasoning via Confidence and Semantic Support
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- Authors
- Mielke, S. J., Szlam, A., Dinan, E., & Boureau, Y.-L.
- Affiliations
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Meta (United States) (US)
- Corresponding author
- Mielke, Sabrina J.
- Szlam, Arthur
- Dinan, Emily
- Boureau, Y-Lan
- Venue
- Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press
- Published
- 2022
- Volume
- 10
- Pages
- 857-872
- ISSN
- 2307-387X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4290994954
- Cited by
- 72
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 3
- FWCI
- 4.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Locations
- Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Speech and dialogue systems
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Natural Language Processing Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Adaptive Learning
- Keywords
- chatbots, overconfidence, metacognition, factual accuracy, controllable generation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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