El Niño Modoki Impacts on Australian Rainfall

Abstract

This study investigates interseasonal and interevent variations in the impact of El Niño on Australian rainfall using available observations from the postsatellite era. Of particular interest is the difference in impact between classical El Niño events wherein peak sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies appear in the eastern Pacific and the recently termed El Niño “Modoki” events that are characterized by distinct warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific and weaker cold anomalies in the west and east of the basin. A clear interseasonal and interevent difference is apparent, with the maximum rainfall response for Modoki events occurring in austral autumn compared to austral spring for classical El Niños. Most interestingly, the Modoki and non-Modoki El Niño events exhibit a marked difference in rainfall impact over Australia: while classical El Niños are associated with a significant reduction in rainfall over northeastern and southeastern Australia, Modoki events appear to drive a large-scale decrease in rainfall over northwestern and northern Australia. In addition, rainfall variations during March–April–May are more sensitive to the Modoki SST anomaly pattern than the conventional El Niño anomalies to the east.