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Cited by 959Climate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsForecasting Techniques and Applications

Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER).

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Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M., Délécluse, P., Déqué, M., Díez, E. +17 more·2004·Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DOI 10.1175/bams-85-6-853
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Abstract

A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.

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  • Earlier work has shown that forecasts combining several models usually outperform forecasts from one model.

    “Numerous studies have demonstrated that multimodel forecasts are generally more skillful than single-model forecasts (Krishnamurti et al. 1999;Kharin and Zwiers 2002;Palmer et al. 2004;van Oldenborgh et al. 2005;Kug et al. 2007).”

    From Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts (2008) · cites this paper as Palmer et al. 2004

  • Equally weighted multimodel combination on average improves the reliability of climate projections.

    “The least surprising conclusion to be drawn is probably that equally weighted multimodel combination on average improves the reliability of climate projectionsa conclusion that is fully consistent with what is known from many verification studies in weather and seasonal forecasting (e.g., Hagedorn et al. 2005;Palmer et al. 2004;Weigel et al. 2008b).”

    From Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections (2010) · cites this paper as Palmer et al. 2004

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Research works printed but not linked: 8

  1. Alves, O., G. Wang, A. Zhong, N. Smith, G. Warren, A. Marshall, F. Tzeitkin, and A. Schiller, 2002: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on the Role of the Upper Ocean in Medium and Extended Range Forecasting, Read- ing, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 22-32.
  2. Délécluse, P., and G. Madec, 1999: Ocean modeling and the role of the ocean in the climate system. Modeling the Earth's Climate and Its Variability, W. R. Holland, S. Joussaume, and F. David, Eds., Elsevier Science, 237-313.
  3. Fernández, J., J. del Hoyo, A. Mestre, and C. Peral, 2001: Local probabilistic forecast of precipitation by the use of an analogical approach. Proc. Fifth European Conf. on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM 2001), Budapest, Hungary, European Meteorological Soci- ety, 28-29.
  4. Hoshen, M. B., E. Worrall, S. J. Connor, A. P. Morse, and M. C. Thomson, 2004: Weather based modelling of the epidemiology of malaria. GEOMED, in press.
  5. Livezey, R. E., 1999: Field intercomparison. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Tech- niques, H. von Storch and A. Navarra, Eds., Springer, 176-177.
  6. Marletto, V., L. Criscuolo, and M. R. M. Van Soetendael, 2001: Implementation of WOFOST in the framework of the CRITERIA geographical tool. Proc. Second Int. Symp. on Modeling Cropping Systems, Florence, Italy, European Society for Agronomy, 219-220.
  7. McCarthy, J. J., O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, and K. S. White, Eds., 2001: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, 1000 pp. [Avail- able online at http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/ wg2/359.htm.
  8. Terres, J.-M., 1999: The Crop Growth Monitoring Sys- tem implemented by JRC/ARIS unit for the informa- tion needs of the EC DG VI-Agriculture. Proc. Int. Symp. on Modeling Cropping Systems, Cataluña, Spain, European Society for Agronomy, Division Agroclimatology and Agronomic Modeling, EX 18746/C ORA/PRO 60194R, 261-264.

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Authors
Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M., Délécluse, P., Déqué, M., Díez, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Feddersen, H., Graham, R., Gualdi, S., Guérémy, J.-F., Hagedorn, R., Hoshen, M., Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Lazar, A., Maisonnave, E., Marletto, V., Morse, A. P., Orfila, B., Rogel, P., Terres, J.-M., & Thomson, M. C.
Affiliations
  • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
  • Danish Meteorological Institute (DK)
  • European Commission (BE)
  • Met Office (GB)
  • Météo-France (FR)
  • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (IT)
  • University of Liverpool (GB)
  • Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione e Ambiente della Regione Emilia-Romagna (IT)
  • Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
Corresponding author
Palmer, T. N.
ORCID
Venue
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Published
2004-06-01
Volume
85
Issue
6
Pages
853-872
ISSN
  • 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
  • 1520-0477
DOI
10.1175/bams-85-6-853
OpenAlex
W1999733221
Cited by
959
References
58
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 45 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 51 · 2017: 47 · 2016: 47 · 2015: 41 · 2014: 61 · 2013: 54 · 2012: 53
FWCI
59.23
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
  • Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Arcimis (State Meteorological Agency) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • HAL (submittedVersion)
  • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Funders
European Commission
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Keywords
seasonal-to-interannual prediction, multi-model ensemble, DEMETER project, coupled ocean-atmosphere model, malaria forecasting, crop yield prediction, climate downscaling, probabilistic forecasting

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